caleb

election dork

[caleb @Vulst3]

TX-09 heads we ride

[Politics & Poll Tracker 📡 @PollTracker2024]

DCCC poll | 10/20-10/22 LV

US House 2026 | Texas’ 9th congressional district

(Trump +20 | 2024)

🟥Alex Mealer 48%
🟦Leticia Gutierrez 47%
——
(TX-09 surveyed)

US Senate Texas 2026
🟦James Talarico 50%
🟥Ken Paxton 45%
—
Texas Governor 2026
🟦Gina Hinojosa 50%
🟥Greg Abbott 46% (incumbent)

[caleb @Vulst3]

The average swing among these is D+14, which happens to be in line with the average swing in internal house polls from this month, 85% have been from Dem affiliates

[Sean T at RCP @SeanTrende]

If you missed our presentation today and ten congressional district polls (MI-7, PA-8, IA-2, TX-35, MT-1, FL-14, MO-2, AZ-2, NC-11, AZ-2), you can still see the recording and find out which one (not a typo) Rs lead in downthread here. 1/2

[caleb @Vulst3]

@CAPrimaryHater Big Penguin was four or five lifetimes ago

[caleb @Vulst3]

New all-time low

[caleb @Vulst3]

Roger Marshall is a really poor communicator

[caleb @Vulst3]

@ECaliberSeven Hubbell won the current IA-02 in 2018 despite losing statewide by 3

[caleb @Vulst3]

Four competitive house races in Colorado but no Senate or Governor race polling at all...

[caleb @Vulst3]

@JoePostingg Impossible to say for certain

[caleb @Vulst3]

Washington primary was a D+11 swing from 2024 numbers. If it's a barometer for whiter wealthier seats, Democrats probably get a similar sized swing among poorer+diverse seats. If poor+diverse seats beat that swing meaningfully, wipeout scenario

[caleb @Vulst3]

In these polls with end dates in October, the average swing is D+15 from 2024 Pres, D+12 if you adjust by 4pts against affiliated party

[caleb @Vulst3]

The margin swings in partisan polls for House seats don't seem to correlate to college degree%

[caleb @Vulst3]

@JoePostingg In most past midterms these sort of swings have been blunted by the president's renaming of a body of water

[caleb @Vulst3]

What is there to say, really?

[caleb @Vulst3]

Demmies should've dreamed bigger and made a better effort in CA23 and CA40 in the state primary. They only voted down Prop 50 by 6 and 4 pts

[caleb @Vulst3]

@CAPrimaryHater TX-09 heads...

[caleb @Vulst3]

This type of swing from 2024 is in line with the swings found in Dem-affiliated polls

[InteractivePolls @IAPolls2022]

GALLUP Q3 PARTY ID (with leaners)

🟦 Democrat 50%
🟥 Republican 39%

D+11 is the largest quarterly margin recorded for Democrats since the first quarter of 2009 (was R+4 in Q4, 2024)

https://t.co/QqEAEg4XKh

[caleb @Vulst3]

@CAPrimaryHater Generic ballot in seats like FL-26 is probably only R+3, Dem-leaning if you buy the D+15 GBs over the D+8s

[caleb @Vulst3]

Some steep swings in recent internal polls for House seats

[caleb @Vulst3]

New all-time low for Trump approval

[caleb @Vulst3]

Note I only found up-to-date Unsure% from Civiqs my other go-to's just list net approval

[caleb @Vulst3]

Adults who "neither approve nor disapprove" or are "unsure" of Trump's job as president are more common in redder states