ryanb

Steelers, blue devils, reds

[ryanb @WHITEHARDEN7]

@Mark_Wagner_CPA @coolreplyguy @07_Nice_Jake Even if you are under 59 1/2 and can’t withdrawal?

[ryanb @WHITEHARDEN7]

@Mark_Wagner_CPA @coolreplyguy @07_Nice_Jake Can you use the money you just rolled over to pay the taxes?

[ryanb @WHITEHARDEN7]

@Michaelfiore Is there anything you can put on them to deter the deer from eating them?

[Peter Tarr @ProfitsTaken]

PRIVATE CREDIT FLASHING WARNINGS FOR STOCK MARKETS

I've been posting about this for months and its getting worse. Let me explain what investors and traders need to know here.

THE SHORT NOTE: If redemption requests keep accelerating in private credit, it will become a broader risk asset story for $SPY, $XLF, small caps, and the economy overall.

WHAT THIS CHART SHOWS: Redemption requests are rising across several large private credit funds. That matters because many of these vehicles effectively cap repurchases around 5% per quarter to avoid being forced sellers into illiquid markets. As you can see, what started as a Blue Owl $OWL issue in Q4 has now spread to 9 major groups exceeding 5% in Q1 of 2026. That's a rapid spread and its only the surface.

WHY THAT MATTERS: Private credit is sold as source of "durable yield steady income" that investors can rely on. Its boring but regarded as safe. The problem is that narrative can shift fast into a liquidity mismatch once too many investors want out at the same time.

LIQUIDITY MISMATCH: The issue is that these funds don’t own highly liquid assets. They own loans that are harder to price and harder to sell quickly. Think of it like panic selling a low float, low volume stock that has a wide bid to ask spread: If you keep smashing the bid or hitting sell at market, you take worse and worse prices. In private credit, forced selling into thin liquidity can pressure marks, confidence, and future redemption behavior.

SELF-REINFORCING RISK: This is where things start looking like a slow motion bank run (remember Silicon Valley Bank?). Investors see redemption requests rising, so they worry that they may get stuck behind gates or queues, and put in redemption requests or their own. Then other investors who may have been calm see the numbers rising and decide to sell as well - son on and so forth. That can make the next quarter’s demand even worse and feed into headlines discussing investors who can't get their capital out.

IMPACT ON STOCK MARKETS: This could weigh on $SPY, $XLF and $IWM by tightening financial conditions beneath the surface. Credit stress usually hits economically sensitive areas first, then bleeds into broader equity multiples as investors reprice growth, liquidity, and default risk.

BANKING FEARS / FINANCIALS: This is worth watching for $XLF but mostly credit sensitive financials. Even if private credit isn’t the same as the banking system, rising stress in lending markets can reignite fear around credit quality, funding, and who is truly holding the risk.

SMALL CAPS / DOMESTIC GROWTH: Smaller companies are especially exposed. If private lenders get more defensive, credit availability can shrink. That is a real issue for more financing-dependent parts of the market and could pressure cyclical stocks and parts of small-cap land.

MORTGAGE & LENDING: The bigger issue is not just housing, it is the broader cost and availability of credit. When lenders tighten, business formation slows, investment slows, refinancing gets harder, and economic momentum weakens.

WHY THE FED CARE: If private credit starts showing real cracks, it is another sign that monetary tightening is still working through the system. That may not show up immediately in headline data, but it can tighten conditions faster than many expect and force the Feds to make a move.

BOTTOM LINE: Private credit was supposed to be the “durable yield” boring but safe trade. If it starts turning into a liquidity story, markets will care as these groups manage a lot of US capital and once confidence in credit structures weakens, that rarely stays contained for long. We're already seeing those signs when comparing Q4 of 2025 to Q1 2026 - quick erosion of confidence and some early stage panic.

[ryanb @WHITEHARDEN7]

@Lea_EFC Does he not foul Leverkusen player first?

[ryanb @WHITEHARDEN7]

@SteelersNetwork Limas sweed

[ryanb @WHITEHARDEN7]

Cornhuskers just got absolutely screwed by the refs.. 13-4 fouls in the second half. Easy charge in Michigan… no call. Somebody investigate.

[ryanb @WHITEHARDEN7]

@TheHoopHerald Need a jumper not a dunker… everybody can dunk at that level dude couldn’t make a shot outside the the paint

[ryanb @WHITEHARDEN7]

@rukky_nate 500k btc, 250k sol, 250k eth, 100k xrp, 300k spyi, 400k schd-vym, 200k voo

[ryanb @WHITEHARDEN7]

@TheHoopHerald At least he gets paid for his time now.

[ryanb @WHITEHARDEN7]

@LegacySiu Berhalter

[ryanb @WHITEHARDEN7]

@ogpinions Very well done. I would add de bruynes goal in the first leg at Madrid. Maybe the most important goal in history of city. Hopefully we can add more at the end of the year!

[ryanb @WHITEHARDEN7]

@SteveOnSpeed Also escrow has to put on that monthly to own a home. Yes the mortgage is $2,684 but depending where you live add on another $500-$1000 a month.

[ryanb @WHITEHARDEN7]

@ad__sneaks I had the black pair that came from the 17/6 split pack. Use to hoop in them until I left them in the food hall in college.

[PARLAY SNIPER 🎯 @Parlay_Sniper_]

$100 ——> $100,000 goal.

✅Day 1: $100 —> $950.00
✅Day 2: $950.00 → $8760.80
✅Day 3: $8760.80 --> $17,950.00
✅Day 4: $17,950.00 —-> ???

RETWEET and DM me for Day 4🔐🪜

MUST BE FOLLOWING!!

[ryanb @WHITEHARDEN7]

@kyhighs @EvanDennison1 Bud Mackey?

[ryanb @WHITEHARDEN7]

@kyhighs @EvanDennison1 Who won it?

[ryanb @WHITEHARDEN7]

@Mike_kim714 117

[ryanb @WHITEHARDEN7]

@obvious_shirts Anybody born after 95 has never even heard of mark prior. He’s figment of our imagination.

[ryanb @WHITEHARDEN7]

@JonRothstein When do tickets go on sale?