David Goldstein

Multi Strat, delta hedging, consulting

[David Goldstein @WagsCap]

The SaaS dead narrative is being applied indiscriminately to ALL software. But the real losers are point solution SaaS single-purpose tools like DocuSign, Asana, Salesforce. The real winners are platform companies that can become the operating system for AI agents.

$MSFT and $ORCL are platforms, not point solutions. They are the infrastructure layer that AI agents run ON. The irony is the SaaSpocalypse should long-term be bullish for both: more AI agents = more Azure compute = more Oracle database queries = more revenue.

Price creates its own narrative. A stock falling 50% looks like it deserves to fall 50%. Most investors don't dig deeper or waiting for actual numbers because of capex fears.

MSFT reports April 28. ORCL reports June 8. Those are the first moments the market gets real confirmation or denial of whether the infrastructure thesis is correct.

The market does NOT yet know:

1. Whether ORCL's $553B backlog converts on schedule ❓

2. Whether Azure guides 40%+ acceleration on April 28 ❓

3. Whether Copilot adds 20M+ paid seats by June ❓

[David Goldstein @WagsCap]

@aleabitoreddit don't forget about Cats!

[David Goldstein @WagsCap]

probabilities:

climate change materially stresses food prices over the next decade: 80 to 90%

governments push lower-meat diets, looksmaxxing and bugs because of climate/health/security: 70 to 85%

farmland/food infrastructure becomes a strategic asset class: 85 to 90%

[David Goldstein @WagsCap]

agricultural bottlenecks:
farmland, water rights, fertilizer, seeds, grain logistics, animal health, cold chain, protein and labor (until androids)

[David Goldstein @WagsCap]

and imagine if something happens with the chiken, even a little wide spread disease: the world is switching form beef to chiken due to lower costs and beef allergies, but everyone will end up eating the bugs while billionaires own the farm lands lmao

[David Goldstein @WagsCap]

$LE 🐂 cattle bull thesis is simple:

the world is short cows and everyone is pretending this is a normal food inflation cycle.

it is not.

cattle supply is slow biology, not software, you can spin up compute, issue shares, import widgets, or flood the market with cheap apps, but you cannot speedrun a cow herd rebuild after drought, feed inflation, liquidation, border restrictions, and disease risk.

the U.S. herd is tight.

global beef production is contracting, agriculture labor shortage is crazy.

China is distorting trade flows with quotas.

Brazil and Australia are fighting for access, Argentina's prices of living are skyrocketing

screwworm risk just added another volatility premium.

higher feed costs, global inflation will increase the price of premium or organic food everywhere and goyim will eat the bugs, but the rest will just pay more for beef

meanwhile demand is sticky because beef is not just calories. it is culture, status, protein, restaurants, barbecue, steakhouses, fast food, and emerging market consumption.

be careful with packers because expensive cattle can crush margins.

look at chicken because consumers may trade down when beef gets too expensive $PPC

long cattle is a scarcity trade.

[David Goldstein @WagsCap]

Argentina can export more because its own people are priced out, but Argentina is not swimming in infinite cattle either. USDA’s Argentina livestock report says 2026 cattle ending stock is forecast around 51.84M head, the smallest in 15 years, after drought, high cow prices, and weak credit conditions hurt herd rebuilding.

[David Goldstein @WagsCap]

did anyone actually short beef packers after ticks started turning people allergic to red meat? Cattle scarcity?

$PPC is the chicken sniper rifle 🎯

[David Goldstein @WagsCap]

$MSFT $ORCL very bullish

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

BREAKING: Trump administration is discussing a possible government stake in OpenAI, per CNBC

[David Goldstein @WagsCap]

strong jobs = fewer cuts / possible hike (no) = higher discount rate = AI growth multiple compression

good for earnings: strong labor means enterprise budgets probably do not collapse and good for $MSFT, $ORCL, $NOW demand.

bad for multiples: strong labor means Fed can keep rates higher. Bad for long-duration software valuation.

expections of FED gonna hold very hawkish may be overdone because if Iran cools and oil stays below $100, the inflation scare loses force and also, strong jobs with productivity from AI can be interpreted as non-inflationary growth if wage inflation does not accelerate

Fed meetings becomes scary because good jobs remove the excuse to cut while inflation is still sticky.

If oil cools and yields stabilize next week, the market can quickly flip

from:
strong jobs mean no cuts

to:
strong jobs mean no recession, buy quality AI again.

[David Goldstein @WagsCap]

$RDDT at $170 per share. I do believe it may be one of the early data bottlenecks for agentic ai monetization phase.

reddit is one of the only public internet companies with three things at once:

1. violent revenue growth
2. real profitability
3. a unique human data asset that ai companies actually need

q1 was crazy:

revenue grew 69% yoy to $663m.
ad revenue grew 74%.
gross margin was 91.5%.
adjusted ebitda margin was 40%.
net income was $204m.

high-margin internet asset finally monetizing properly.

the ad business is still under-monetized relative to the quality of intent on the platform.

people do not go to reddit to perform for influencers.
they go there to ask real questions, compare products, complain, research, troubleshoot, argue and make buying decisions and I myself witnessed how a single post on reddit about my offline side hustle was attracting new customers for a year straight and I am not even the one who made that post

that is extremely valuable ad inventory.

then you add the ai layer.

google already paid for reddit data.
openai already partnered with reddit.

anthropic is being sued because reddit is trying to force the industry into “pay us or stop training on us.”

llms need fresh, messy, human, opinionated, experience-based data.

reddit has that at scale.

the market still thinks $rddt is just a social media ad forum.

i think it is becoming a scarce human-intent database with an ads business attached.

if growth stays 40%+ and margins stay anywhere near current levels, this can keep rerating.

reddit stops being priced like a weird message board and starts being priced like one of the most valuable human data layers on the internet.

[David Goldstein @WagsCap]

@stan100x ok, I will long some for the sake of retardmaxxing, business actually looking really good

[David Goldstein @WagsCap]

in 2-4 weeks jobs report becomes mostly forgotten noise and market will say: economy is strong, oil is cooling, ai demand still alive, buy quality again

[David Goldstein @WagsCap]

@CryptoCowboy_AU lmao rekt

[David Goldstein @WagsCap]

@aleabitoreddit https://t.co/cCLBgYuMQ1

[NEXTA @nexta_tv]

A Chinese robot wearing a clown wig kicked a child in the stomach.

[David Goldstein @WagsCap]

@aleabitoreddit @vvxiaoyu8888 that's true

[David Goldstein @WagsCap]

reddit data for ai is noisy, anonymous, sarcastic,not every Reddit comment from some broke 19 year old in r/antiwork, not all of it is scarce and valuable.

there is user mix - in Q1, Reddit had 126.8m DAUq, but only 52.0m were logged in. logged out users were 74.8m. US logged in DAUq grew only 1% YoY, international DAUq grew fast, but international ARPU was only $2.02 per quarter versus $9.63 in the US and that means a lot of the growth is lower monetization traffic, not automatically high quality ad inventory

getting elegible does not mean automatic inclusion in S&P, valuations are not really "cheap" and it can easily go down 50%

Reddit already had a stock hit when Google algorithm changes affected search related traffic, especially logged out users and that exact user bucket is now a big part of the growth story

it's good biz, but risk wise you're crazy

[David Goldstein @WagsCap]

@sooyoon_eth pre-prod security is still mostly prompt guards + manual reviews. We're seeing teams use runtime sandboxes and agentic pentesting (like FailSafe's SWARM) to catch exploits early before they hit prod

[David Goldstein @WagsCap]

🐂 upcoming events for the ai software rotation are lining up:

$ORCL reports june 10.
this is the cleanest near-term test for the ai infra + enterprise data thesis. if oracle shows backlog conversion, oci demand, capex discipline and strong ai cloud commentary, it can repair a lot of damage from the avgo expectations reset.

$GTLB transcend is also june 10.
gitlab’s earnings call hurt the stock because ai devsecops is still early in revenue. transcend can partially fix that if they show real product depth around agent orchestration, governance, security remediation and neutral control over claude, cursor, codex and github-style workflows.

$SNOW summit is happening now.
snowflake already proved ai data cloud demand with the $6b aws deal and raised guidance. more product announcements around cortex, agents, apps and enterprise ai can keep the software monetization story alive.

$NOW has ai control tower rollout continuing. ServiceNow is the cleanest public-market “agent governance” name. ai agent advisor and intelligent approvals are already rolling out, with broader ai control tower enhancements moving toward august ga. every new agent platform makes the governance layer more necessary.

openai is pushing chatgpt from chatbot into app platform / agent platform.

that sounds threatening to software at first, but it also creates the bull case: if agents become the interface, enterprises need systems of record, policy, audit, identity, permissions, observability, token budgeting and workflow control.

that is why the software trade is testing resistance, but very far from being dead.