John Vincent

Hunting convexity in crypto markets
Defined risk. Asymmetric upside.
Positioning over narrative
JV Weekly | Market insights

[John Vincent @WakemJV]

I run a crypto fund focused on one thing:

Asymmetric returns with defined risk

Most of this market trades narratives.
We trade structure, positioning, and convexity.
Here’s how we think:

[John Vincent @WakemJV]

While price action still looks bearish, several historical bottom indicators are beginning to align.

• More BTC is now held at a loss than at a profit — a condition seen near every major cycle low.
• Bitcoin recently touched its 200-week moving average, a level that has historically marked long-term support.
• The Power Law Oscillator suggests BTC is cheaper than 95.6% of historical observations relative to trend.
None of these guarantee a bottom.
But they are the types of signals that have historically appeared when risk/reward becomes increasingly asymmetric.

[John Vincent @WakemJV]

While sentiment toward ETH is as negative as I've seen in years, my investment thesis is evolving.

I'm moving away from "ultrasound money" and toward viewing Ethereum as the settlement and coordination layer for programmable finance.

As stablecoins, tokenized assets, and L2 ecosystems expand, Ethereum increasingly resembles financial infrastructure rather than a simple blockchain.

The challenge is that infrastructure value is difficult to model in real time.

The opportunity is that markets often underestimate it until adoption becomes obvious.

[John Vincent @WakemJV]

based on your logic above, i posit the following: The ETH narrative has taken a meaningful hit this month: low fee rev, leadership turnover at the EF, and long-time advocates publicly losing conviction.

At the same time, Ethereum remains the dominant settlement layer for stablecoins and tokenized assets. The real debate isn't whether Ethereum has utility.

It's whether ETH ultimately resembles HTTPS—critical infrastructure with limited value accrual—or whether the token itself captures a meaningful share of the value being created on top of the network.

[John Vincent @WakemJV]

I think it's far too early to write off ETH the asset simply because Ethereum the network is succeeding.

[John Vincent @WakemJV]

The ETH narrative has taken a meaningful hit this month: low fee revenue, leadership turnover at the Ethereum Foundation, and several long-time advocates publicly losing conviction.

At the same time, Ethereum remains the dominant settlement layer for stablecoins and tokenized assets.

The real debate isn't whether Ethereum has utility.

It's whether ETH ultimately resembles HTTPS—critical infrastructure with limited value accrual—or whether the token itself captures a meaningful share of the value being created on top of the network.

[John Vincent @WakemJV]

Cheap optionality alone is rarely enough.

Markets still need a reason to care.

[John Vincent @WakemJV]

Bitcoin volatility continues compressing, with expected 30-day volatility falling to a nine-month low as trading activity and speculative positioning remain subdued.

From a purely asymmetric standpoint, long-dated upside exposure looks as attractive as I’ve seen in quite some time.

The problem:

You can’t aggressively fight the tape without a credible catalyst to re-expand risk appetite.

[The Wolf Of All Streets @scottmelker]

TD COWEN SAYS CRYPTO CLARITY ACT IS UNLIKELY TO PASS THIS YEAR AS POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO WORSEN

[John Vincent @WakemJV]

@WOLF_Bitcoin_ Most people still think AI and crypto are separate themes.

Increasingly, they look more like complementary infrastructure layers.

[John Vincent @WakemJV]

@MerlijnTrader Most people still think AI and crypto are separate themes.

Increasingly, they look more like complementary infrastructure layers. While too early can be the same thing as wrong, i think it is far to early to give up on the value prop right now.

[John Vincent @WakemJV]

@TrustlessState Most people still think AI and crypto are separate themes.

Increasingly, they look more like complementary infrastructure layers. And eth is the primary settlement of both AI and stable coins! Its far too early to give up on the value prop right now!

[John Vincent @WakemJV]

Most people still think AI and crypto are separate themes.

Increasingly, they look more like complementary infrastructure layers.

[John Vincent @WakemJV]

I continue to think the market is materially underestimating how connected AI and crypto are becoming.

Overnight, Base launched “Base MCP,” allowing users to interact with wallets, swap tokens, transfer funds, and use DeFi apps through conversational AI interfaces like ChatGPT, Claude, and Cursor.

In other words:

AI is increasingly becoming the interface layer for crypto infrastructure.

[John Vincent @WakemJV]

Spot ETFs, institutional treasury adoption, derivatives market maturity, and sovereign interest all introduce variables Bitcoin has never previously cycled through at scale.

[John Vincent @WakemJV]

Bitcoin peaked in October 2025, roughly 18 months after the April 2024 halving — almost perfectly in line with prior four-year cycle behavior.

If the historical pattern continues, that would imply:

• Bear market bottom around late 2026
• New cycle highs potentially into 2029
The problem is that many are assuming the next cycle will look exactly like the last.

Meanwhile, the market structure underneath Bitcoin has changed dramatically.

[AUTOfinance (prev. Tokemak) @autopools]

@base Base(USD) 😤

[John Vincent @WakemJV]

Markets tend to rally hardest when positioning is light and catalysts are unexpected.

Neither condition appears especially true right now.

[John Vincent @WakemJV]

The US stablecoin bill passed the Senate Banking Committee in a bipartisan 15-9 vote.

BTC initially rallied on the news, but has since slipped back below $80k and appears likely to close the week beneath that level — not an especially constructive technical signal.

When markets struggle to sustain upside on positive catalysts, it often suggests expectations were already priced in.

The bigger question now is: what becomes the next incremental catalyst for risk appetite?

[Vivek Sen @Vivek4real_]

BREAKING: US SENATE JUST OFFICIALLY PASSED THE CRYPTO MARKET STRUCTURE BILL MARKUP

HERE WE GO 🚀

[AUTOfinance (prev. Tokemak) @autopools]

Our UI is not under attack and is functioning normally - scams and phishing URLs are rampant on google search results.

Always confirm that you're on the correct URL: https://t.co/CTLbx1jaEb

Generally searching for official trusted X accounts, or using resources like @DefiLlama are the safest modes of ensuring you're on the correct URL.