Our Final Welsh MRP finds Labour being squeezed. Plaid leading on vote share but tied with Reform on seats and clutch of highly marginal 6th seats
🌼Plaid Cymru 34 seats
➡️Reform UK 34 seats
🌹Labour 14 seats
🌳Conservatives 9 seats
💚Greens 5 seats
Extraordinary moment caught on camera which gets to the heart of the question of who’s really in charge of Reform Uk? Is it the Welsh leader, Dan Thomas, or Nigel Farage. Their Deputy Welsh Leader torn over who to back.
Aled Hughes from the Farmers Union of Wales says farmers are "crying out" for more funding from the next Welsh Government, warning the budget has stagnated while costs have increased.
Our First Welsh MRP estimates Plaid as the largest party in the Senedd
🌼Plaid Cymru 30 seats
➡️Reform UK 28 seats
🌹Labour 24 seats
🌳Conservatives 7 seats
💚Greens 4 seats
🔶Liberal Democrats 3 seats
The Electoral Commission has published a guide to help voters in Wales understand the changes to the Senedd and its voting system ahead of the May 7 election ✍️Emily Price https://t.co/XvQVj8FhYm
The Welsh nationalists of Plaid Cymru are set to overtake Labour to become the biggest party in Wales for the first time since 1999’s devolution, YouGov found in a survey. https://t.co/1hp5bGR5NN
I have made an interactive public version of this spreadsheet, with lists of known candidates for each party by constituency. There’s a worksheet on this file for each constituency. All data on it is provisional until 9 April. I’ll try to keep it up-to-date. https://t.co/6AFXnEmxIb
Under this seat projection, Eluned Morgan loses her seat, Darren Millar is the only Conservative elected and Plaid Cymru are six seats short of an outright majority.
You are warmly invited to join the research team from the Wales Governance Centre for our Pre-Election Briefing ahead of the Welsh Parliament election in May 2026. #Wales#Senedd26
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Prof. Richard Wyn Jones and Dr Ed Poole will present our latest analysis:
https://t.co/PKOAzxqGDR