Big day today - Kevin Warsh's first Fed meeting as Chair. With Middle East tensions easing and energy prices dropping, he's pushing FOMC to hold off on rate hikes instead of following ECB and BOJ. Markets still see 87% chance of a rate cut later this year due to high inflation.
@omgitsbunnie Midterms always stir up uncertainty but plenty of times the market still rallied through them. Hard to call a bottom when sentiment shifts this fast though.
🚨 solana:J3NKxxXZcnNiMjKw9hYb2K4LUxgwB6t1FtPtQVsv3KFr / $SPY / $QQQ — This selloff might still have more to go.
Trillions just got wiped out, but that could be just the first warning shot.
The US is heading into another midterm election season, and historically stocks don't do well during these times.
Since 1926, solana:J3NKxxXZcnNiMjKw9hYb2K4LUxgwB6t1FtPtQVsv3KFr has averaged nearly an 18% drop before midterms.
The issue is the market right now looks even shakier:
Valuations are high.
Top 10 stocks make up almost 40% of the S&P 500.
AI turned into the most crowded trade on Wall Street.
Rate cut hopes are vanishing.
Oil climbed back above $90.
Yields are going up.
Liquidity is shrinking.
This isn't just a regular dip.
It's a market leaning on a handful of mega-cap names:
$NVDA $MSFT $AAPL $AMZN $GOOG $META $AVGO $TSLA
When leadership is that concentrated, one crack can spiral into panic fast.
My take:
Don't grab every little bounce.
Keep your eyes on $SPY and $QQQ.
If selling keeps up, this midterm cycle could trigger a much bigger reset.
Cash isn't weakness.
Patience is the plan.
Not financial advice.
@Cobtribefan So the bottleneck is shifting from compute power to how we store data. Interesting how optimization is becoming the real game changer here.
@DavidKWilliams 110k GPUs and still renting from SpaceX? That's wild. Makes me wonder if anyone actually has enough hardware for what they're building.