Nicholas J. Myers

WVP analyzes Russian military and foreign policy (and their intersection).
PhD student at @UofGlasgow and Senior Fellow @StrategyFuture1

[The Red Line - Podcast @TheRedLinePod]

WHO IS PUTIN'S MOST LIKELY SUCCESSOR? 🇷🇺

With the talk of current instability within Russian politics, many are starting to ask. Who inside the Kremlin is most likely to follow Putin?

With
@CarlSchreck
@ABarbashin
@WarVsPeaceOrg

MAY 26th > 1100 DC Time

https://t.co/CLhmAbxrsD

[Nicholas J. Myers @WarVsPeaceOrg]

Thanks to @ConvSix, I had the opportunity to record some thoughts on the debate about escalation in the ongoing #Russia|n invasion of #Ukraine amidst all the accusations back and forth (and within).
https://t.co/F3dJlq8fdq

[Nicholas J. Myers @WarVsPeaceOrg]

New article on the follow-on implications of #Turkey closing the #Bosporus straits to #Russia's Navy. #ВМФ
https://t.co/ShELHPy2Ji

[Jacek Bartosiak @BartosiakJacek]

Jacek Bartosiak and Nicholas Myers discuss the recent events in war in Ukraine, as of late evening of 1 March 2022.

@WarVsPeaceOrg

https://t.co/M5KDRMr11R

[Nicholas J. Myers @WarVsPeaceOrg]

Kharkiv Front
Battle continues from morning escalated by large-scale rocket fire from Belgorod Oblast (Russia) by 1523.

[Nicholas J. Myers @WarVsPeaceOrg]

Part 3 of #RussiaUkraineWar reconstructing timeline from incomplete #OSINT: 24 February 2022 1200-1600.
Russian troops had already reached the Dnepr left bank at Nova Kakhovka, gaining control of water pipelines to Crimea. They arrived at Kalanchak by 1254.

[Nicholas J. Myers @WarVsPeaceOrg]

Donbass Front
More Grad strikes in Mariupol 1421
The Russians engage Ukrainians at Starobilsk in northern Luhansk Oblast by 1455.
The Russians try to flank Mariupol from the north at 1500 with 16 MBTs but are repulsed.

[Nicholas J. Myers @WarVsPeaceOrg]

Battle for Skadovsk reported by 1004 and lasts for several hours.
Ground battle for Mariupol first reported at 1039 after previous shelling.
Russian Navy threat to Ukrainian garrison on Zminiy Island broadcast to the public at 1040.

[Nicholas J. Myers @WarVsPeaceOrg]

Part 2 of the #Russia|n invasion of #Ukraine reconstructed from #OSINT (thus incomplete but interesting). This covers 24 February 2022 0700-1200 Kyiv time.
Another set of missile strikes hit Lutsk and Brovary by 0721 and 0738.

[Nicholas J. Myers @WarVsPeaceOrg]

Earliest report of shelling of Kharkov arrives in my feed by 0926, starting a multi-hour battle.
Russians claim to have advanced into Henichevsk on eastern Crimea isthmus by 0933, but Ukrainians claim resistance there for multiple hours afterward.

[Nicholas J. Myers @WarVsPeaceOrg]

A second wave of cruise missiles then hits a second set of airbases and depots over 0601-0615.

[Nicholas J. Myers @WarVsPeaceOrg]

Using #OSINT from a variety of social media, I have tried to reconstruct the sequence of events in #Ukraine through time steps. Obviously, these maps are not comprehensive. All times are the earliest I can find Twitter, Telegram, Facebook, or newswire posts on them.

[Nicholas J. Myers @WarVsPeaceOrg]

Earliest movement I find is Russian taking Velika Pisarivka border post in Sumy Oblast at 0435 (before Putin's speech). Missiles start landing by 0457, primarily hitting airbases but also ports and supply depots. Grad strikes follow in Kharkiv Oblast and Donbass about 0520.

[Nicholas J. Myers @WarVsPeaceOrg]

@RALee85 Yes, but we're seeing very few updates from Zhytomyr or Chernigov beyond confirmations of border crossings.

[Chris Cavas @CavasShips]

This week on the CavasShips podcast: What naval and maritime power could #Russia mobilize for an attack on Ukraine? @WarVsPeaceOrg joins us for a great discussion. Plus news and a squawk about the presence vs readiness debate https://t.co/1t4EHskEXd