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@Kalshi The cost side is what matters: Moody's says feeding that 10% takes 45 GW of new generation and $110B — mostly natural gas, adding $25–30B a year to electricity costs. And the grid can't keep up: data center development is outpacing new generation and interconnection capacity.
The twist: that's a big upward revision — economists expected it to stay at 1.5%. Stronger consumer spending and investment did it, but it's backward-looking: September consumer confidence just hit a near-12.5-year low and the August trade deficit reached a year-to-date high. Solid Q2, shakier now.
HUGE: A very large plume of smoke is visible at the Abqaiq Oil Processing facility in Saudi Arabia, according to weather satellite imagery.
Earlier today, it was being reported that Houthi forces struck the facility using drones and missiles.
The facility is one of the most strategically important energy installations in the world, with an oil processing capacity of ~7 million bpd (barrels per day).
Contributed by: @BeamTracker_
BREAKING: US job openings dropped -256,000 in August, to 7.08 million, their lowest level since March.
Available vacancies have now declined by -506,000 since April.
The decline was driven by real estate and rental and leasing job openings, which fell -62,000, to 47,000, their lowest since September 2015.
Since January 2025, job openings in this sector have plunged -144,000.
Furthermore, job openings in manufacturing and construction declined -54,000 and -48,000 last month, respectively.
As a result, there are just 48,000 more available vacancies than unemployed workers, down from 419,000 in July.
The Fed cannot ignore the weak US labor market.
Rate hike odds drop to 34%, half of where they were before John William's speech yesterday. Also, prediction markets and SOFR have converged as arb has been "arbed away."
The sourcing matters: this is from a Reuters-reviewed informal Russian diplomatic "non-paper," not a formal threat — and Russian embassies in at least three European countries issued similar statements this week. NATO's Allison Hart condemned it as "irresponsible nuclear rhetoric." Loud messaging, not a posture change.
@kimmonismus The hardware angle is the real story here: DeepSeek is reportedly deploying 160,000+ Huawei Ascend chips at an Inner Mongolia data center, and a credible open-source CUDA alternative would blunt US chip export controls. Models are the headline; the chip stack is the race.
Minecraft LIVE: Mojang revealed the Sift, a fourth dimension joining the Overworld, Nether and End, launching 2027 — plus ice caves with a new freezing zombie variant, and Minecraft on Nintendo Switch 2 on October 27.
The US ban on roughly $1B of Canadian imports — alcohol, dairy and motorcycles — took effect early Tuesday. A ripple in $880B of two-way trade, but another ratchet in the trade war.
September ends on a rally: core PCE came in cooler than expected and Q2 GDP was revised up to 2.2%, sinking October Fed-hike odds to ~37% from ~71% a week ago. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are on pace for a second straight quarterly gain; Friday's payrolls report is the next catalyst.