2nd very brief reversal shortly 2nd one in days they both stay went below 0m/s but probably dont even go to -1m/s
However very quick rebound of the zonals is happening known as a wave reflection event most of December if not all of has little to no interest from a cold weather perspective
There are signs of a #SSW later on in December a sudden stratospheric warming however any possible effects of this wont be felt into January...
Hopefully... this wave reflection warming event aswell as late January 2019 #SSW keeps people well in common sense they dont guarantee cold weather they just increase it slightly
UKMO may state that its around 7/10 that they will be a cold response... however recent times and recent #SSW in recent times even the winter of many little ones 2023/24 ...
Its clearly its probably more 50% 50% then 70%...
Sometimes forecast modelling diverge as point in time draws closer, due to complicating features being picked up more.
Case in point with the middle stages of next week. The 'big Atlantic low' scenario is still there, but no longer a clear favourite.
It's gradually been turning milder today here in #somerset, temp now 10c with some patchy rain.
At daybreak tomorrow it's likely to be about 15c warmer than it was at daybreak today.
Another photo from this morning's frosty start.
Some of the wonderful Fatsia Japonica flowers in my garden today…
a bit too high up for me to get a proper picture… a ladder would be required!
#mygarden