@mattforney WBE is just not a great writer. He’s good but not remarkable and is one-dimensional. @Delicious_Tacos is a far better writer who touches on similar themes. WBE’s writing is not even worth a comparison to the greats you listed.
@mattforney Great post even if I don’t quite agree with your conclusion on decline vs. ascendency. Celine always had an undercurrent of idealism/optimism behind the satire and cynicism, which is why he became/was a fascist. As did many others on the list who trended in that direction.
You Don’t Find a System — You Build One
Too many new traders think the goal is to find the system — the holy grail, one setup, one indicator that turns them into a legend overnight.
That’s not how it works.
Trading is deeply personal. You have to get your hands dirty — test, fail, adapt, evolve. You don’t copy consistency; you build it. The edge isn’t in someone else’s rules.
It’s in how you think, act, and react when the market turns against you. Only when you’ve lived through that will your own system start to emerge.
https://t.co/igSDfDkNcn
Breadth is awful. The 10-day EMA of NYSE stocks advancing sat near .40 for weeks while a handful of tech leaders carried the tape. NYSE Composite held its 200-day.
That's where a Zweig Breadth Thrust fires from: the 10-day average of advancers over advancers plus decliners, from under .40 to over .615 inside 10 trading days. It just got back above .40, so the setup is alive. Rare.
I don't need the thrust to buy leaders. They turn before breadth does, and they're drawing me in. When it has fired, the next year has been up every time in the post-Depression sample, about 23% on average for the S&P.
How I do things is that I isolate what stocks I want, what I view as the leaders. And I stalk them for an entry.
And I have viewed $HPE as a stock that the market is holding down, waiting to Burt higher.
And a couple of years ago this volatility around the breakout level would have made me miss this move, but I often say to my people, that levels matter more than how the candles look.
And $HPE is a good example of this, it did not breach the breakout candle low despite the breakout hesitating, and that shakeout yesterday was a clear add for me simply because that's often what precedes the real breakout, a last shakeout and it respected the HVE level and closed above it.
This is how a market leader behaves, and we need to learn to be stubborn and continue to go after them even when they make it difficult.
$HPE is one of my largest position at 25% position size, and I will try to have patience with it to squeeze out it's full potential.
Still tough going out there but feel leaders still acting well. Just got to be in the right stuff at the right spot.
See what fun next week brings!
I'm hoping that I can pretty much sit back now and let my stuff work.
3 weeks later and same story.
Most people focused on semi's and memory stuck in the lower half of their bases whilst hardware stocks have been hanging out near highs.
$DELL $HPE $NTAP $QMCO way stronger still
Breadth continues to weaken, tech is the only thing keeping markets from falling apart.
The question is whether the rest of the market recovers, or whether tech is the last one to fall.
Daily Review
- Morning weakness bought up.
- Good to see multiple groups acting well together. Software and memory the standouts.
- Leaders continue to act well, just want to to see it continue and for the broader market to start to participate
- Some of the stronger stuff still a little short term extended.
- Weakness buys still seem easier until we get market wide character change
- See how we end the week!
https://t.co/hMMoEqJQwn
$MU Morgan Stanley report suggests that the market hasn't priced in Micron's new guidance yet.
"Micron extends its qualitative guidance out to 2028; expecting S/D for memory to be tighter in both 2027 and 2028 than this year…..
… that's unlikely to be initially priced in by investors, but matches our assessment of what the strength in AI demand means for memory"
MS raised FY28 EPS 51% to $225, now 25% above consensus
Bullish 🔥