What Scotland Thinks

This is the official Twitter account for run by @ScotCen. Tweets by John Curtice.

[What Scotland Thinks @WhatScotsThink]

Most Scots doubt Sturgeon’s claims in embezzlement scandal

https://t.co/WTDtTuuH6a

[What Scotland Thinks @WhatScotsThink]

On how the electoral system operated in #SP26. https://t.co/X4ENshGoMa

[Ipsos Scotland @IpsosScotland]

New @IpsosScotland post-election poll findings, out today, show a third of Scottish voters only made their minds up in the final week of the campaign, with 1 in 10 deciding on polling day itself. For more findings, see https://t.co/GXEWzF93bU

[Survation. @Survation]

NEW: Survation Holyrood MRP

Survation’s final Holyrood poll indicates that the SNP is almost certain to form the next government, albeit without an overall majority. Our MRP estimates that the SNP are likely to win 59 seats - six short of the 65 needed for a majority, with a tight race for second place between Reform UK and Labour.

https://t.co/qmKKCSyidM

[Find Out Now @FindoutnowUK]

Find Out Now Scottish Parliament voting intention

Constituency:
🟨 SNP: 41%
🟦 Reform UK: 17%
🔴 Labour: 15%
🟠 Lib Dems: 12%
🔵 Conservatives: 10%
🟢 Greens: 1%

Regional:
🟨 SNP: 26%
🟦 Reform UK: 18%
🟢 Greens: 17%
🔴 Labour: 12%
🟠 Lib Dems: 11%
🔵 Conservatives: 11%

[Luke Tryl @LukeTryl]

Final Holyrood voting intention on the eve of the election. SNP still lead but their vote share has dipped in the final week of the campaign - and Labour making last-minute gains.

Fieldwork: 30 April - 4 May

[Ipsos Scotland @IpsosScotland]

NEW Holyrood voting intention from @IpsosScotland and @STVNews

🟡The SNP are comfortably ahead on 35%, -4 from 26-31 March

🔴Second place is too close to call: Labour on 20% (+5), Reform UK close behind on 18% (+3) while Conservatives trail on 11% (N/C) tied with Lib Dems (+1)

[Dan Sanderson @DSanderson_85]

Seat projections, based on MRP model and poll of 6,543 Scots:

🟡SNP 62 (-2 vs 2021}
➡️Reform UK 19 (+19)
🔴 Labour 17 (-5)
🟢Green 16 (+8)
🟠LibDem 8 (+4)
🔵Con 7 (-24)

Full write up ⬇️

[Luke Tryl @LukeTryl]

Implied vote shares as below:

Constituency:

🟡 SNP 35% (-13)
➡️ Reform UK 19% (+19)
🔴Labour 17% (-5)
🔶 Liberal Democrats 13% (+6)
🔵 Conservatives 13% (-9)
💚 Greens 2% (+1)

List

🟡 SNP 26% (-14)
➡️ Reform UK 22% (+22)
🔴Labour 15% (-3)
🔶 Liberal Democrats 12% (+7)
🔵 Conservatives 11% (-13)
💚 Greens 11% (+3)

Change with 2021

[NatCen @NatCen]

Join us on Thursday 4 June, in London or online, for the launch of two BSA chapters on:

1️⃣ Attitudes towards higher education
2️⃣ What drives Reform voters?

Register here: https://t.co/rD7NNbxigx

🎤 Speakers include:

➡️Sir John Curtice @whatukthinks – Senior Research Fellow, NatCen
➡️Alex Scholes @AlexScholes6 – Research Director, NatCen
➡️Professor Diana Beech, Director of the Finsbury Institute, City St George's
➡️Annabel Denham @AnnabelDenham1, Columnist and Senior Political Commentator, The Telegraph
➡️Sara Rajeswaran, Trustee, NatCen

#BritishSocialAttitudes #BSA43 #UKPolitics #HigherEducation #SocialResearch

[What UK Thinks: EU @whatukthinks]

On the potential impact of tactical voting in #SP26. https://t.co/xIC0lfRJ7o

[The Times and Sunday Times @thetimes]

SNP set to win but fall short of a majority in Holyrood election https://t.co/82HjTlvqPK

[Election Maps UK @ElectionMapsUK]

Holyrood Voting Intention:

Constituency:
SNP: 38% (+3)
RFM: 20% (=)
LAB: 18% (-2)
CON: 12% (-1)
LDM: 10% (=)
GRN: 2% (+1)

Regional:
SNP: 29% (=)
RFM: 19% (=)
LAB: 17% (=)
CON: 12% (-1)
GRN: 12% (+1)
LDM: 9% (+1)

Via @Survation, 17–23 Apr.
Changes w/ 14–21 Apr.

[What UK Thinks: EU @whatukthinks]

On the #sp26 campaign polls to date. https://t.co/i6ogqikVOf

[Survation. @Survation]

NEW: Scottish Parliament Voting Intention (Constituency Vote)

SNP 35%
RFM 20%
LAB 20%
CON 13%
LD 10%
GRN 1%

F/w 14th-21st April 2026.

Read more: https://t.co/F45fV8nO4Z

🧵1/4

[James Kelly @JamesKelly]

EXCLUSIVE SCOT GOES POP / FIND OUT NOW POLL: SNP and Greens on course to win nearly TWO-THIRDS of Holyrood seats and a pro-independence SUPERMAJORITY - SNP overall majority still a possibility - Labour slump to dismal FIFTH place in the seats projection:

https://t.co/8V8KXyp2v6

[Luke Tryl @LukeTryl]

🧵Our First Holyrood MRP, out today estimates the balance of power on a knife edge between pro independence & pro unionist majority. With the Scottish Greens winning their first constituency seats, Reform UK breaking through in Scotland and many constituency seats on a knife edge

[Luke Tryl @LukeTryl]

NEW 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Holyrood voting intention. SNP lead by 13 points but their constituency share is down 15 since the 2021 SPE - set to lose nearly a third of their 2021 support, and potentially the lowest vote share for a winning Scottish party since devolution.
(24/03 - 10/04) N = 1,046

[The Telegraph @Telegraph]

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿The SNP is on track for a majority – and a fresh referendum on breaking up the UK in the May elections

Read more about The Telegraph's exclusive poll⬇️

https://t.co/zOd1OQkIGs

[YouGov @YouGov]

YouGov's first MRP of the 2026 Holyrood election shows the SNP are on course for a small majority

SNP: 67 (+3 from 2021)
Ref: 20 (+20)
Lab: 15 (-7)
Grn: 11 (+3)
LD: 9 (+5)
Con: 7 (-24)