Al Conway

35 years experience trading cash grain & futures spreads. Publish the daily Cash Wheat Report from my company Cascade Commodity Consulting Company LLC.

[Al Conway @WheatSpreader]

@farmdaily @farmer_kansas How does this compute? 46.5 bpa x USDA harvested area 7.05 mln ac = 327.8 mbu verse your 290.4 #wheattour24

[Al Conway @WheatSpreader]

@farmer_kansas How does this 290.4 mln bu make sense? USDA harvested area 7.05 mln acres x 46.5 bpa = 328 mbu

[Al Conway @WheatSpreader]

@Durum_Wheat @MisterCommodity @cornwheat1 11.5%

[Al Conway @WheatSpreader]

The BNSF cut rates yesterday $500/car = 13.5 ct/bu. Unless basis collapses, HRW cash values are now at DVE. Why is KCBT spreads so weak today?

[Al Conway @WheatSpreader]

@cornwheat1 Billy Ray, you sound like you'er in the biz and probably closer to it than me. However, you should have seen the extra-ordinary business this week from the PNW🧐It should hit next weeks export sales. By the way CWRS basis upto +140 ct/bu MWH4.

[Al Conway @WheatSpreader]

@MisterCommodity @cornwheat1 Mommar, good to hear from you! Point is DVE was adjusted down 13.5 ct/bu., freight off KC is now 120 ct/bu. Harvest protein around delivery points was 12.0-13.0% protein, why they pulled a few trains of lows from CO/NE. Nothing trades at low side of KC.

[Al Conway @WheatSpreader]

@cornwheat1 Well cash values are going up as wheat is put away prior to fall harvest. We are seeing some real demand from PNW with HRW cheaper than CWRS and APW/AH.

[Al Conway @WheatSpreader]

@AdamCSteinert @JohnDeere Let some air out of the tires😎

[Al Conway @WheatSpreader]

@BrianHoops Why is this year's Wheat Quality Council spring wheat tour such a secret? No tweets, no report until very late or even the day after the tour ends. This is the best kept secret in the industry. #wheattour23, #wheat

[Al Conway @WheatSpreader]

The June 1 wheat stocks were lower than expected and almost all of the drawdown was in HRW stocks. Our estimate post report verse pre-report, HRW down 25-30 mbu, SRW unchanged, SWW down 5-10 mbu, HRS unchanged and Dur +2.

[Al Conway @WheatSpreader]

Why is KCBT warehouseman bidding +5 ct/bu KWN3 delivered to Hutchinson and Salina, Kansas for HRW, for June/July delivery? Delivery is -9 and -12 ct/bu, plus 8 ct/bu load out. #wheat

[Al Conway @WheatSpreader]

@brettsbro Looks like they're baling it for hay

[Cascade Commodity Consulting, LLC @CashWheatReport]

We have serious questions about the #wheattour23 early season yield calculation when you can supposedly have 13.3 bpa on zero stalks per foot, 7.5" rows, in the central third of Kansas. #wheat

[Al Conway @WheatSpreader]

The trade had been excited about two HRW CCC tenders, 91 kmt March 20-30 on Feb 1 and 134 kmt Apr 10-20 shipment on Feb 7. USDA cancelled last nights HRW tender for 91 kmt, putting pressure on KCBT.

[Al Conway @WheatSpreader]

@laurdelcourt China buys a few because it is a "soft" wheat. Indonesia buys as well for the same reason. ASW is "Australian Standard White" it is not a soft wheat, rather a low protein hard wheat.

[Al Conway @WheatSpreader]

US wheat export sales were only 189 kmt, but there were 65 kmt SWW to China and 50 kmt HRW to Iraq, neither were expected. #wheat

[Al Conway @WheatSpreader]

Weekly inspections uncovered 2.5 mbu SWW to China from unknown destinations.#wheat

[Al Conway @WheatSpreader]

@morrisonmkts They planted in the dust for the insurance on HRW, but as pointed out, more SRW than expected. Our stocks number was right on, but the big difference is huge disappearance of SWW, feeding and blending.

[Al Conway @WheatSpreader]

The average winter wheat acreage planted trade estimate is 1.0-1.4 mln acres too low, in our opinion.#wheat

[Al Conway @WheatSpreader]

@morrisonmkts 🙂

[Al Conway @WheatSpreader]

@SecVilsack @FarmWeekNow @FarmBureau @USDA Why is the FarmBureau convention in San Juan, Puerto Rico? SecVilsack at least had sense to visit via Zoom. Did USDA subsidise the cost of the convention as well?#waste

[Al Conway @WheatSpreader]

@morrisonmkts Hrw 25.079, SRW 7.06, WW 3.7, ttl 35.9