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@WATCHER_GRAINS Can't get US wheat on the chart with that scale...

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Looks like we are going to price wheat imports into the US again... #wheat

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@agtradertalk it's nothing compared to what happened in the wheat spreads in 2022.

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Question out there for Milling people... Mkt seems obsessed with HRW getting additional demand. Yet, its priced uncompetitively. Even now at a very punchy/record premium to to Minnie and HRS/CWRS. Can importers buy HRS and CWRS and blend with some lower pro to make a HRW/Russian substitute? #Wheat

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@Grain_Cycles Trump $ are a decent incentive

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While this is true to some extent, corn demand also needs to be taken into account. The markets expectations for good yields last year coincided with a carry out expectation in excess of 2, probably even edging above 2.5bln bu. A very good yield this year likely doesn't build stocks above 2bln. (i know there is some contention of F&R vs overstated yield last year too). Grain markets globally (wheat and oilseeds) were also a bearish input on corn, which isn't the case this year.

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@sizov_andre pretty sure at this price spread... European wheat gets demand before HRW.

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@agtradertalk @DanielHusseyJr forward weather isn't exactly screaming "great for grain fill" though.

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@bam_weather Can you do the same scatter for Jul accumulations only?

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@Treg2LS @FabianWierczoch HRW supply was even tighter in 2023... lower beginning stocks. HRW prices needed to ration demand to ensure pipeline stocks at mkt year end. This is not necessarily the case this year. Also importers have became more elastic i.e. Mexico now happy to take Russian wheat.

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@MisterCommodity Tend to agree...

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@rodgrisier1958 @no_1_special__ Your export argument doesn't hold to scrutiny... Those exports were done when HRW was extremely competitive. Look at recent sales of HRW, demand isn't great at these relative prices. HRW is in full demand rationing mode. You may argue that the rest of the world is too cheap.

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@BradyD78 @DrLonhorn Wheat has massive headwinds too... Just to be clear I am not bearish, but US wheat is already priced for demand rationing. Yes there is a supply issue in the HRW belt, but we need to see global cash start to rally for wheat to make another surge.

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@Grain_Cycles Animal slaughter weights are very high... with lower conversion ratio for this additional weight, it more than makes up for lower cattle placements. Also broiler numbers are enormous. Not sure the animal numbers story leading to low feed stacks up tbh.

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HRW already going for full demand ration mode... #wheat

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@MisterCommodity Very true... Also outlining the actionable intelligence if there was any (although after Iraq the burden of proof is kind of high). He could if made life with the allies a lot easier if communication was better. Then again maybe there was no Intel. Who the fuck knows.

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Soybeans are indestructible... #soybeans

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Seems fertiliser costs increasing only impact G&O... Softs markets couldn't really care less.

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@EduardoVanin4 Corn that is... Wheats just about in the bag.

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@EduardoVanin4 Argentina has to grow it first... Long range forecast isn't painting an overly optimistic picture. Although obviously this can change.