@mystcapital hard to justify using when you factor in the fees and lack of a future airdrop.
considering you can use something like variational and get a drop and pay less fees on top.
what am I missing? Why do people insist on using $hype ?
My calculated range for @variational_io points at TGE:
Variational holds $855M OI, 4th highest of perpDEX. It does that on $16.78B monthly volume, which ranks far lower. Below is the Volume-to-OI ratio:
➥ Variational: 19.6x
➥ Hyperliquid: 18.7x
➥ Lighter: 49x
Variational and Hyperliquid both sit near 19x which is consistent with held positions + directional conviction.
Now the points supply:
1. 3M retroactive drop at the Dec 17 launch
2. ~22 weeks since at a verified 150K/week
3. ~6.4M outstanding today
Polymarket puts TGE at ~82% before 2026 end, most likely Q4. That's after the points program finishes, so the final count would be near 9.25M.
Docs confirm 50% goes to community, but that bucket includes revenue sharing + LP incentives. I anchored to Lighter, the closest comp, which sent 25% of supply to points holders.
At a 25% tranche and ~9.25M points:
➥ Bull: ~$108/point @ $4B FDV
➥ Base: ~$68/point @ $2.5B FDV
➥ Bear: ~$35/point @ $1.3B FDV
Market base ($650M FDV) is pricing points below ~$18/point right now. The market isn't at the bear case, it's under it. A re-rate might be coming.