𝕎ill 🥃

Tech Person 🧑‍💻 | Researcher 🥼 | Computer Engineer 💡
$DRAM $SMH $SNDK $NVDA

[𝕎ill 🥃 @WhiskeyIll]

1. Knowing how to lose = knowing how to win
Double meaning: control losses, but also be willing to invert yourself. Realize when you are wrong, stop defending the bad read, and flip from “I need this to work” to “what is actually happening?”

2. Take profits
Don’t treat unrealized gains like they are permanent. Pay yourself when the market gives you the chance, especially when the trade has already done what it was supposed to do.

3. Don’t play every hand
Passing is a position. You do not need to chase every ticker, every setup, every open, or every move.

4. Avoid mistake chains
The real damage often comes after the first mistake: revenge trading, oversizing, chasing, averaging down emotionally, or trying to “make it back.”

5. You can change your mind
No loyalty to a trade, ticker, thesis, or previous opinion. If the facts change, price action changes, or your read was wrong, adjust.

6. Assess EOD
End of day review: what worked, what was forced, what was emotional, what was sized wrong, what should be repeated, and what should be banned tomorrow.

7. Old patterns
Be aware when you are falling into your own old patterns, good or bad. Repeat the useful ones and catch the destructive ones before they run the account.

8. Inputs and outputs
Know size, risk, expected gain, probability, and effort. Don’t get seduced by the hot stock if there is an easier, cleaner, more guaranteed-feeling, or better risk/reward trade elsewhere.

9. Minimize stress / sleep at night
Structure trades and positions so they don’t own your mind. If the position makes you unable to sleep, think clearly, or act rationally, it is probably too large or too messy.

I try to operate logically, even though most of what I trade comes down to intuition in the moment and tuning in or out to the right voices and information. These are the nine rules/guidelines I’ve scrawled in the corner of my whiteboard, usually after a hard lesson, sometimes when I felt good momentum, and I've taken and internalized some lessons from people smarter than myself. Using ChatGPT to organize my thoughts.

[Paradis @ParadisLabs]

AMD literally invested in xAI btw lol

[Goshawk Trades @GoshawkTrades]

a 24-year-old ex-openai researcher ran a fund to $45 billion with eight people, was up 439% net through june, and by the end of july had sold his entire public stock portfolio to ken griffin in a single block trade.

griffin described this exact failure mode two years ago, asked why portfolio managers wash out at citadel:

"you have a portfolio that is extraordinarily highly concentrated, you have large positions, you cannot demonstrate a clear and concise competitive advantage in why you own those positions."

"and there are some people that just, with full information, are unable to help themselves and get to a better portfolio construction."

he was also asked the opposite question in the same interview, why citadel keeps working, his third and final answer was this:

"it's experience. it's the price paid in losses and pain that converts into wisdom. my leadership team, we've been through a lot of very difficult moments of the markets together. we've learned some very bitter lessons. but it makes us much more effective as investors in periods of turmoil and crisis."

citadel started in november 1990. situational awareness started in 2024, long AI infrastructure and short software at roughly 4x leverage. both legs went against it in the same three weeks.

there was no bitter lesson priced into that book yet.

that's what got bought.

he wasn't wrong about AI. he was wrong about the construction of his book.

[𝕎ill 🥃 @WhiskeyIll]

@strictrope @juumelo_ 💀

[Wall St Engine @wallstengine]

Google RAISED its FY26 CapEx guide to $195B-$205B, up from $180B-$190B, citing accelerated capacity deliveries to meet stronger demand.

$GOOGL expects only a small portion of revenue from existing TPU system sales agreements to be recognized in 2026, with the vast majority coming in 2027.

Due to supply constraints, it will expand the use of third-party capacity in Q3 as a temporary bridge, which is expected to create modest near-term margin pressure.

[Wall St Engine @wallstengine]

Trump:

From this point forward, any time the Islamic Republic of Iran shoots at a ship in the Strait of Hormuz, whether it be by Missile, Rocket, Drone, or any other device or weapon, the United States will bomb and destroy ONE BRIDGE OR POWER PLANT, including those located next to, or in, the Capital City of Tehran.

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

WHITE HOUSE TO REDIRECT BILLIONS IN RESEARCH FUNDS TOWARD AI, AWAY FROM COLLEGES- WSJ

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

$SPCX - SPACEX SHARES BEGIN TRADING AFTER $75 BILLION IPO

SPACEX SHARES OPEN AT $150 AFTER IPO PRICED AT $135/SHARE

[𝕎ill 🥃 @WhiskeyIll]

@AirExpel @HunterBiden 40 dolllars?

[𝕎ill 🥃 @WhiskeyIll]

@kevinxu @RJCcapital Yes all-in posts are engagement bait. You proved his point well done.

[𝕎ill 🥃 @WhiskeyIll]

@RKLBMan @RJCcapital @kevinxu Classic 😎🚬

[bone @bone_eth]

@PolymarketMoney Some of the most evil engagement farming we’ve ever seen

[𝕎ill 🥃 @WhiskeyIll]

Trimmed $SMH $DRAM

[𝕎ill 🥃 @WhiskeyIll]

Semis

[𝕎ill 🥃 @WhiskeyIll]

@assface_private

[𝕎ill 🥃 @WhiskeyIll]

@ConsensusGurus Says a lot

[𝕎ill 🥃 @WhiskeyIll]

Semis

[𝕎ill 🥃 @WhiskeyIll]

Imho this is how you can get addicted to losing money. Pre-forgiving failure and allowing yourself to fail because of an irrelevant thing. Sure maybe that builds willpower, or health, but for what, enduring losing? If your hand is hot take it off the stove.

[𝕎ill 🥃 @WhiskeyIll]

$mrvl up 4.33% premarket

[FUNDA @FundaAI]

Both TPU and GOOG's LPU

[Shay Boloor @StockSavvyShay]

Oil is now indicating a +7% move higher after Trump said the U.S. Navy will begin blockading the Strait of Hormuz

The market is having to price in a more serious escalation again.

[𝕎ill 🥃 @WhiskeyIll]

@CitronResearch get to writing