Whizard

Originator 🧠 | Top down is cool, but bottom up is way cooler | Modeling Things | DM For Partnerships

[Whizard @WhizardData]

This years NFL Model is BY FAR the best pricing model publicly available.... Fair Value prices for:

▪️Moneylines, Spreads & Totals
▪️Alternate Line Spreads & Totals
▪️Team Totals & Alternate Line TT
▪️Quarter Totals, Half Totals, Quarter Spreads, Half Spreads
▪️Rec Yards O/U, Rec O/U, Rush Yards O/U, Carries O/U, Pass Yards O/U, Completions O/U, Pass Attempts O/U
▪️ANYTIME TD SCORRERS
▪️Fantasy Rankings

Over 20+ markets priced from our origination model that handily beats markets at opening prices. 🧠

[Whizard @WhizardData]

Been quiet all week..... but that is because the NFL origination model FINALLY comes out today..... 🏈🧠

[Whizard @WhizardData]

@SushiBet Saw my entire feeds mind blown over a projection that had drew lock as the starter last TNF.

[Whizard @WhizardData]

Seeing the general betting public start to learn about models and simulations because of the rise of AI.

[Whizard @WhizardData]

TNF Model Play:

Pats +3 (-112 FD)🧠

Lost some value here since yesterday (I am in at +3.5). Model has this one being pretty dead even at 24-24. Bears have had explosive weeks but unable to string them together. Have a red hot Pats team coming in, despite a banged up WR core, model really just continues to disagree on the NFC north across the board. Trust the coaching off a short week more in New England than Chicago as well.

[Whizard @WhizardData]

Model really liking someone on Thursday night... 💭🙈

[Whizard @WhizardData]

nvm south alabama is just ass

[Whizard @WhizardData]

Who the heck is steaming Marshall tonight?!?!

[Whizard @WhizardData]

Honey not now, i'm busy watching Delaware vs Missouri State in the game of the year.

[Whizard @WhizardData]

@hayds2k

[Whizard @WhizardData]

Who the heck is steaming Marshall tonight?!?!

[Whizard @WhizardData]

@nealcaffery1917 @OnlyOverz Do not ever love buying into a steaming market but model likes the number.

[Whizard @WhizardData]

@nealcaffery1917 @OnlyOverz -2.5 went from -122 last night to +100 now, pretty substantial move, these weeknight CFB games just steam like a train.

[Whizard @WhizardData]

Model really liking someone on Thursday night... 💭🙈

[Whizard @WhizardData]

@OnlyOverz Line is getting bought down

[Whizard @WhizardData]

@CorbieBO

[Whizard @WhizardData]

@Spencer64007081 Yes but with nuance. Would expose you to way more variance etc.... not my preferred method at all.

[Whizard @WhizardData]

What a month so far. Now 8 Green Day’s in a row. This last 2 month stretch has easily been best in career. Let’s keep it rolling. 🧠

(Not to toot my own horn but that ROI at that volume on straights is unheard of)

[Whizard @WhizardData]

The primary's are really hindering the search bar on kalshi for college football games and I absolutely cannot stand it.

[Whizard @WhizardData]

@Spencer64007081 Do not have that exact number, but roughly 5x smaller than what I have done on same scale.

[Whizard @WhizardData]

Quite the run.

[Whizard @WhizardData]

Would be extremely scared of this. Been watching Mestemaker from his first start at UNT. He is extremely raw, if he is not a lock to go top 5, I would say he stays. Ok state has chance to be top 10 teams next year if they all stay. He has played 1.5 seasons of QB in his life. He is NFL traits ready, but if he slips a little down the stretch I bet he stays.

[Whizard @WhizardData]

@GiuseppePaps Took some breaks for sure. Thanks 👊

[Whizard @WhizardData]

Everyone on planet earth on the over.... bet of the year, W.🧠🤌✅

[Whizard @WhizardData]

Bet of the Year:

Cowboys/Packers u53.0 (-112)🧠

Bet of the year is a bit of a hyperbole, but MAN does the model really really like this one. Mostly have been fairly tight to the market this year. Not in this one. Projecting about 46 points Sunday night. I am typically highly doubtful when the model is this far off the market. But dug deeper and really trust the number.

2 Reasons model is lower:

1) Simply the market / opener overeating the packers throwing attack after last week, and hating on a banged up and bad cowboys defense. Model has game total around 50 just on RAW numbers alone.

2) This is going to take some luck and trust in the numbers, but forecast for Sunday night as of right now is cold and windy. Wind being the main factor, gusts close to 30mph. That projection will probably dissipate as the week goes on (Big meteorology stinks at their job). BUT, with all weather forecasts being baked into our number, it has it making at least a 3 point difference if conditions hold, on top of being around 50 flat without the weather. 2 teams that really like to pass the ball, in a cold windy night in Lambeau, really don't see how this line gets any higher than this.

I am in pretty heavy on this line already, CLV or not, just really trust my number here. Even if it is a bit extreme. Obviously with 2 fantastic passing attacks we could get caught in a shootout.

[Whizard @WhizardData]

@llttlegreen There ain’t bets of the year daily. Or it wouldn’t have been bet of the year.

[Whizard @WhizardData]

Sure

[Whizard @WhizardData]

Everyone on planet earth on the over.... bet of the year, W.🧠🤌✅