Whizard

Sports Betting Originator 🧠 | +EV is cool, but bottom up is way cooler | Models all hand built | Open to work

[Whizard @WhizardData]

Excited to launch a new version of my website. You can gain access to all our models at once finally (as many have been asking for), and get all model picks delivered into one discord channel. 🧠

I work tirelessly on these models, to try to make profitable tools for myself and others to use, and hoping you guys continue supporting that.

Every pick is tracked, every game and market is analyzed. Full transparency for TRULY the best models on the market. https://t.co/Rxa9xAN9yp

[Whizard @WhizardData]

9 strikeout free pick Ws in a row
17-1 in last 18

[Whizard @WhizardData]

Another W 🧢✅👍

[Whizard @WhizardData]

MLB K Prop bet for today:

Coleman Crow u3.5k (+106){DK}🧠

Bit of a weird one here, model has Crow projected OVER his line of 3.5, but the wide distribution brings his chances to actually get to the mean projection down. Model has fair price for this one at -120, and playable up to anything around -102.

[Whizard @WhizardData]

MLB K Prop bet for today:

Coleman Crow u3.5k (+106){DK}🧠

Bit of a weird one here, model has Crow projected OVER his line of 3.5, but the wide distribution brings his chances to actually get to the mean projection down. Model has fair price for this one at -120, and playable up to anything around -102.

[Whizard @WhizardData]

Also 16-4 on free picks this month... Just an unbelievable run. Variance going our way this month.🧠

[Whizard @WhizardData]

MLB props variance has just been insanely bad to me this week. 15 losses by the hook out of 27 total.... give me 3-4 of those and would have had a great week...

Way she goes. Free pick coming today.

[Whizard @WhizardData]

@Hector54356967 Yep been doing one every other day all summer for the most part!

[Whizard @WhizardData]

Cannot believe its finally Scottie week.

[Whizard @WhizardData]

@BUBBSAI incoming 2nd place.

[Whizard @WhizardData]

@manulbets2 @Verdict_Pro 😂😂 Made me laugh way harder than it should have

[Whizard @WhizardData]

Never been more confident in a golf outright, albeit +350. FV closer to +200 on my projections.

[Whizard @WhizardData]

Our last 4 wins:

+134, +132, +112, +123....

[Whizard @WhizardData]

MLB Strikeout free plays YTD:

▪️23 Wins
▪️5 Losses
▪️+18.07u
▪️64.54% ROI
▪️avg odds of +101

What a run. 🧠

[Whizard @WhizardData]

Getting ridiculous at this point ✅🧢👍

[Whizard @WhizardData]

Getting ridiculous at this point ✅🧢👍

[Whizard @WhizardData]

MLB K Prop bet for Today:

Bryce Elder o4.5ks (+132){DK}🧠

Extremely sketchy play here, line/price is caught between 3.5 and 4.5. Model has him at 5.0, well over either way. Getting the 4.5 at +132 will be had, have to imagine that number will only get worse as day goes on. Looking to stay extremely hot on these free plays🧠

[Whizard @WhizardData]

Do not know how much extra rec flow the cup final gets vs others but I am assuming more, and assuming a lot of it is going on the 12-1 team so far these playoffs. Probably explains the 1-2% difference. MMs know people will pay the extra tax on them / too rec to even do the math.

Some sort of psychological mechanism in the market, slight favorites get overrated from the public perspective.

[Whizard @WhizardData]

MLB K Prop bet for Today:

Bryce Elder o4.5ks (+132){DK}🧠

Extremely sketchy play here, line/price is caught between 3.5 and 4.5. Model has him at 5.0, well over either way. Getting the 4.5 at +132 will be had, have to imagine that number will only get worse as day goes on. Looking to stay extremely hot on these free plays🧠

[Whizard @WhizardData]

@Bald_Thor Both losses on their last batter faced basically....

Cavalli 3ks in his last 4 hitters....

Soriano goes to 110 pitches with 8 walks.

[Whizard @WhizardData]

Soriano u6.5k probably the ugliest loss of the year

58 strikes 😭

[Whizard @WhizardData]

@Bald_Thor 2 bad beats in the MLB??? no that would never happen!

[Whizard @WhizardData]

Now with all that being said, there are multiple ways to shortcut this to allow yourself better confidence without having to live test that many samples. Depending on the market, things like tracking CLV, and or a walk forward backtest on prior years can help increase confidence without needing a massive sample. But still, those are shortcuts, the only way to truly know is through tracking and collecting samples.

[Whizard @WhizardData]

The #1 misconception I see people fall into in the gambling space is sample size, or lack thereof.

In this table below, you can see on the x axis the confidence interval. Meaning having 80% confidence in your data and results. The y axis is your theoretical edge, not what the model says your edge is, but what your results say your edge is....

As you can see, grinding a 0.5% edge requires an INSANE amount of samples to even come close to validating your edge statistically. Most people have never bet 5,000 times let alone 28,000.

As the edge increases, it takes less and less sample to be confident. But that is also a double edged sword, and common sense needs to be applied at one point. If I had a model that was returning 10% through 69 samples, there is no world where I would have 80% confidence in the results, even though that's what the data says.

Realistically, it is near impossible to actually have a 10% edge on the market. A more realistic edge even for the best originators is closer to 5%. At 5% you still need about 280 samples to reach 80% confidence in your results, and almost 2.5x that to get 95% confidence which is where most should actually feel safe.

Betting the same bet, from the same model, 613 times before reacting one way or the other is nearly impossible for most humans. There lies the psychological battle in sports betting... 99% of people do not understand this, and overreact to 10-20 bets, let alone 613....

Many just do not quite understand truly how much data you need to have any sort of statistical confidence in your results. Understanding sample size and variance is probably the single most important concept in understanding gambling.

[Whizard @WhizardData]

Also 16-4 on free picks this month... Just an unbelievable run. Variance going our way this month.🧠

[Whizard @WhizardData]

May MLB Origination Model results recap:

🔹Total: 242-193 (55.6%), +81.7u, +10.2% ROI
🔸K's: 74-65 (53.2%), +18.52u
▪️Walks: 109-90 (52.1%), +55.36u
▫️Hits Allowed: 59-46 (56.1%), +7.77u

Had an insane middle 3 weeks of may, the start and the end could have been much better, especially this last week. Overall cannot complain about a 10% roi over 30 days.