Manuel Kol

[Bitcoin Ekasi @BitcoinEkasi]

I just touched down in South Africa, after attending @TheBitcoinConf.

I don’t go to conferences for the talks. I go to meet people. There’s no other way to gather so many Bitcoiners in one place.

And in Las Vegas I had a fantastic sit-down with Lukas (@duczko) the CEO of @blinkbtc—one of the Lightning wallets we use daily in our project.

We chatted for several hours, and he shared some fascinating insights with me, which I’d like to pass on (with his permission).

Obviously, I can’t go into too much detail, but there’s still a lot worth saying.

And I’m sharing this as a way to say thank you to all the South African Bitcoiners who’ve spent their precious time—the only thing scarcer than Bitcoin—onboarding and orange-pilling others. With no immediate personal reward.

Hopefully, what I share here will encourage you to keep going.

First of all—and I’ve always known this, but the Las Vegas conference confirmed it—while places like the U.S. may be further ahead in building Bitcoin businesses, mining, exchanges, financial services, strategic reserves, and so on; what we have in South Africa is grassroots adoption - ordinary people downloading wallets and transacting with Bitcoin every day. And in that, we are ahead.

How do I know this? Because I see it in the way people interact with Bitcoin—on the ground, here and elsewhere.

But also because Lukas shared some numbers with me: South Africa ranks 2nd globally in terms of monthly active Blink users—second only to El Salvador.

And considering that El Salvador is where Blink (formerly the Bitcoin Beach Wallet) originated—developed specifically for @Bitcoinbeach in El Zonte—it’s expected that they would be ahead. They have a significant head start.

So, realistically, when you exclude El Salvador, South Africa ranks 1st among the more than 160 other countries (as of April 2025) where Blink has active users.

And this isn’t due to some centralized, coordinated, or paid marketing effort—as would likely be the case if Blink were a VC-funded shitcoin wallet.

No. This growth is driven entirely by everyday plebs—Bitcoiners—relentlessly and unstoppably onboarding people, to actually use the best money ever created.

And to be clear, I’m not saying this to promote Blink. They don’t pay me, and they don’t fund our project. I’m not even saying Blink is the best wallet out there. There are many wallets, each suited to different use cases.

Blink is designed for easy spending and receiving—perfect for small, high-volume, real-world transactions. Think pocket money, micro-businesses, salary payments, grocery shopping, piggy banks—you get the idea. For these purposes, it’s an excellent wallet, and one of the most widely used globally, especially in regions where Bitcoin is adopted as everyday money.

South Africa’s position at the top of the monthly-active-user list tells you something important about what’s happening on the ground here.

That's not to say that South Africa is ahead of all other places where Bitcoin is being adopted in this way. There are obviously several other places where significant progress has been made on a grassroots level.

The more important point is that it reflects a form of adoption that doesn’t make headlines—because the people driving it aren’t ever in the headlines.

They’re just ordinary individuals, quietly building something extraordinary. Yet in terms of numbers, they represent a more significant development than the stuff that does make headlines.

And there are more of them here, in South Africa, than in most other places.

That’s why I’m bullish on South Africa—because of this grassroots adoption. The problems here are so obvious that, in most cases, you don’t need to explain the problem. You just need to explain the solution.

Lukas also shared some future plans with me. Blink has some insanely cool ideas to accelerate adoption even further.

While I can’t share the details (as much as I’d love to) what they have planned for South Africa could realistically onboard an entire country to Bitcoin—from the bottom up.

There’s a killer app, hidden within their app, just waiting to be unlocked.

And once it was explained t me, it felt so obvious. Except no one has tried it, not yet. (And I’ve only ever heard one other person mention it as a possibility.)

If Blink pulls this off, the size of the world’s biggest strategic reserve will be a fart in the wind compared to the tornado of grassroots adoption this could unleash.

I'm super excited to see them build this!

I have no idea what the timeline is and I wish I could say more, but when you see it, you'll know.

And don't expect a bombshell "BREAKING" - "LATEST" - "JUST IN" type announcement.

Like all real change, it'll spread slowly and quietly to begin with, and it will likely only be understood for what it is, after the fact.

I'm super excited to keep building with all of you!

[Bitcoin News @BitcoinNewsCom]

NEW: Students in 🇸🇻 El Salvador get hands on experience with #Bitcoin miners in the classroom 👀🙌

[Julien Bittel, CFA @BittelJulien]

When in doubt, zoom out… #Bitcoin

[Willy Woo @willywoo]

The financial world now believes #Bitcoin is a fast emerging asset class.

Well asset classes are valued in units of tens of trillion.

What this means is the world actually believes:
- price will 10x from here
- it will rival the US Dollar in size
- become a reserve asset

[Fred Krueger @dotkrueger]

Economists. What amazing people.

"We will not have any more crashes in our time."
-- John Maynard Keynes, 1927 (Considered top economist in history)

"Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau."
-- Irving Fisher, 1929 ("Pioneer" of Monetary Theory)

"The Soviet economy is proof that a socialist command economy can function and even thrive."
-- Paul Samuelson, 1948 (Nobel Prize)

"By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet's impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine's"
-- Paul Krugman, 1998 (Nobel Prize)

"The subprime crisis is contained."
-- Ben Bernanke, 2007 (Nobel Prize)

"Inflation is transitory"
-- Janet Yellen, 2021 (Fed Reserve Chair, Treasury Secr)

[Bitcoin B2B for Freedom @BTC_for_Freedom]

People work 100,000 hours throughout their lifetime and then gets robbed by inflation without knowing. If they’d spend 100 hours (0.1%) of that time to learn about money their lifes would change drastically. #bitcoin

[Cristian Chifoi @ChifoiCristian]

"2024: Everyone is wrong in the market"

This is my mid 2024 market view, into 2025, and we will talk about: Bitcoin, S&P500, DXY, FED rates and the potential recession that should come

If you don't know my January 2024 outlook, here's a link, go check it out:
https://t.co/LKZ1dngjO1

In there you will see my first S&P500 target of $5500 reached, and also Bitcoin's new all time high before the halving, and today we'll update that outlook to see where we are in the market for the next 6-12 months

This is a serious post, and later on I shall return to my trolling bears posts, slashing them open and making fun of them, because being a bear is not profitable unless you find a small window of opportunity - which we shall discuss also

Hint: it's smaller than any bear's wife's pussy, but still bigger than any bear's penis

Enough! Let's begin!

1. S&P500 index & FED Rates

Ahh, a story as old as time, or a bear's insuccess

FED Rates are a lagging indicator to know how hot the markets are, but still they give a pretty good tell for when there will be problems.

a) September 2007: after 1 year of maintaining rates at 525 bps, we have the first cut, and after 5 more cuts, market was still pretty hot, no sign of recession and big drawdowns.

After those 6 cuts, the soft landing narrative installs - "market no dump bro, we fine, we bid"

Soft landing meant 2-3 FOMC where FED maintained rates again - THIS IS WHERE PROBLEMS START!

During the entire period of cuts, then soft landing - 9 months in total - market remained HOT

b) July 2019: after 6 months of maintaining rates at 250 bps, we have the first cut, and 2 cuts after (Sept and Nov 2019)

After those 3 cuts, soft landing narrative and 2 FOMCs with no rate cuts: Dec & Jan - and big problems in March, 3rd FOMC that brought rates to zero-ish

My guess: this time is not different
Right now we have September 2024 for first rate cut (makes sense after 1y of maintaining rates, just like 2007 high rates of 525 bps, and now 550 bps)

We should have 3-5 rate cuts, which could mean Sept to January-March time, then some soft landing narrative for 2-3 FOMCs with rates maintained, then a global event, again.

SPX up target is $6000ish, down target is $3500+

See my original January 2024 market view, with just the timeline that is different. So basically we could get an extended period of time to reach my targets.

Next up...
2. DXY

Nothing changed on my DXY view, just the timing. Period 3 should come after the "soft landing" narrative, that means the $ printer machine would go berserk like no other time in American history

The Dollar would find its way thru the global economy much easier, much faster, thanks to stablecoins, but this also means double digit inflation on the next wave, 2026+

This would take US assets to a parabolic mania, until end of decade - check my #roaringtwenties posts

3. Bitcoin (& crypto)

Based on the short experience with FED rates, maybe this time could be different (Wall Street owned)

a) 2019 July first cut: as consensus hit the market, euphoria installed, BTC going from 7400$ to 14000$ in a matter of weeks

But then had a downtrend until the soft landing narrative, which meant a last drink before the pandemic war (global event, just like GFC in 2008)

Being a speculative 100 bill $ asset, after the first rate cut, its price action failed to follow the S&P, but that could be different today

b) September 2024 first rate cut: this could differ (maybe we get a July or Nov/December cut, we would update plan later), but we play the hand we're dealt

Either scenario 1 or 2 in play, we're missing a leg up to 90-100k, as euphoria should set in to complete this mid or complete cycle (we will find out later and will update market view)

What I really don't know is if the downtrend after rate cuts is happening this time, ETFs and Wall Street, and the fact that we're at 12x the market cap for BTC as an asset, which makes it nonspeculative

Which could mean that Scenario 2 is in play, so no downtrend until "soft landing" - we shall see

This means that altcoins should have big rallies, as
time is more important than price

In 2019 for reference, we had almost no time in the market, as in half of 2022 + 2/3 of 2023, so almost no gains in the altcoin market, but...

Time > price! More time and price not moving, more agressive pumps later

1.4 trillion $ is my next target before we can talk about trend change, just as BTC next leg up, and maybe an 120-170k extended leg to complete the cycle

This could lead to a left translated cycle, but we will see, because the next major printing after the "soft landing narrative" means that scarce asset pump hardest and longest.

Just give a follow @ChifoiCristian and stay tuned, it doesn't cost anything.

We shall bathe in the blood of our bears and after they're dead, we shall wear their pelts, imbearsonating them to be aware of the next global event after the "soft landing"

Hazzah!

I shall pin this shit onto my profile

[The Bitcoin Historian @pete_rizzo_]

✨ The best trading advice in #Bitcoin history.

True at $11k, true today 💫

[Jordan Walker @JayW132]

The house doesn't change. The money does.

#bitcoin

[Joe Burnett, MSBA @IIICapital]

Median new US home price in #bitcoin

2012 - 50,616 BTC
2013 - 19,127 BTC
2014 - 351 BTC
2015 - 901 BTC
2016 - 697 BTC
2017 - 323 BTC
2018 - 24 BTC
2019 - 84 BTC
2020 - 46 BTC
2021 - 10 BTC
2022 - 20 BTC
2023 - 14 BTC
2024 - 7 BTC

[Samson Mow @Excellion]

When designing the #Bitcoin Bonds I used 60% annual median growth to make projections on ROI.

2023$27,000
2024$43,200
2025$69,120
2026$110,592
2027$176,947
2028$283,116
2029$452,985
2030$724,776
2031$1,159,641
2032$1,855,426
2033$2,968,681

So somewhere in the next 7 years we should hit $1.0M. The question is if the marco environment bearish or bullish for Bitcoin. Every indicator that I’m watching is OMEGA bullish, so I think we’re going to hit $1.0M sooner rather than later.

60% median growth is very conservative, and it also smooths out the volatility. For example in 2017, Bitcoin went up 1332% with absolutely nothing going on. No ETFs, no MSTR, no nation-state adoption.

Do you really think in 2025, Bitcoin would be $69k still? Of course not. Everything is accelerating. The only certainty is that $1.0M and higher is inevitable.

Plan accordingly.

[Bitcoin Magazine @BitcoinMagazine]

RT if you are HODLing through this #Bitcoin dip ✊

[John Osterman @JohnXOsterman]

The Great #Bitcoin Crash of June 2024. 🫨

[Bitcoin Magazine @BitcoinMagazine]

NEW: Satoshi era #Bitcoin wallet just moved $3 million worth of BTC from 2010.

The owner of the wallet hodled from $0.10 to $60,000. Legend! 🙌

[Carl ₿ MENGER ⚡️🇸🇻 @CarlBMenger]

Normie: „#Bitcoin is too complicated.“

Fiat: Hold my beer

[InvestAnswers @Investanswers]

#Solana ETF
Never had an ETF for such a small asset in market cap terms.
This is meaningful!
$SOL

[Bold Bitcoin @BoldBitcoin]

#Bitcoin is a "Stable Asset" like gold.
- CEO, VANGUARD