Wilhelm Fren

Author of the Middenheim essays

[Wilhelm Fren @Wilhelm_Fren]

@realJoeGigs @DemosKratosCA Facial scan for full access to any popular website.

[Wilhelm Fren @Wilhelm_Fren]

I like Mario for his optimism, and I enjoy his interviews. I think Trump lied as Trump does. This game of coming within an inch of a deal, scuttling it, then coming back to the table with concessions rinse and repeat is a very long-running US forever war foreign policy strategy.

[Mario Nawfal @MarioNawfal]

🚨BREAKING:

🇺🇸🇮🇷Trump's team was ready to fly to Geneva this weekend for a deal-signing ceremony with Iran.

Iran just said there is no deal to sign.

That's not a minor miscommunication. The US publicly telegraphed a signing ceremony. Iran publicly called it a "mistaken understanding of US proposals and wishes."

One side is describing a finish line. The other side says the race is still running.

Either the Trump administration is leaking optimism to pressure Iran into closing faster, or they genuinely believed a deal was closer than it is.

Source: Fars News / Writers: Jamie, Samuel

[Wilhelm Fren @Wilhelm_Fren]

So we're essentially exactly where we've been since day one.

Iran making maximalist demands. US must:
- End support for Israeli genocides
- Withdraw from the Middle East
- Accept the Persian Gulf Strait Authority control over Hormuz
- No commitment on the nuclear issue yet

The US making maximalist demands. Iran must:
- Accept Israeli genocides
- Relinquish the PGSA
- Make commitments to abandon nuclear technology

This is just ridiculous

[Open Source Intel @Osint613]

Iran’s Mehr, citing a source close to Iran’s negotiating team, claims a proposed U.S.-Iran draft MOU includes:

• Immediate and permanent ceasefire on all fronts, including Lebanon

• U.S. commitment not to interfere in Iran’s internal affairs

• Maritime blockade lifted within 30 days

• U.S. forces to withdraw from areas around Iran

• Strait of Hormuz reopened within 30 days under Iranian arrangements

• Suspension of sanctions on Iranian oil and petrochemical exports

• Full access to Iranian financial assets

• 60 days of negotiations toward a final nuclear agreement

• $24 billion in frozen Iranian funds to be released, with half before talks begin

• Missile program and support for resistance groups excluded from negotiations

• Final agreement to be endorsed by the UN Security Council

• Draft still pending review and approval by Iranian authorities

(Again, this an Iranian report, and not confirmed by the U.S.)

[HFI Research @HFI_Research]

Oh my god, this is so good.

This is JPM EM's method for counting vessels that contributed to its claim of "200% of pre-conflict" levels.

Method: Take snapshots of AIS data for vessels on each side of the Strait via Bloomberg's MAP function once a day. Identify confirmed transits (vessels appearing on one side of the strait and then subsequently on the other), and exclude support vessels (e.g. tug, landing craft, platform supply). In this methodology, we may on occasions miss some shadow vessels (if they re-appear only days later or far away), but we are able to capture vast majority of shadow crossings that have been reported in other media.

Average taken over weekends.

[Wilhelm Fren @Wilhelm_Fren]

China is no longer importing from the countries most affected by the closure of Hormuz.

China is not propping up the world economy any more or less than the US or Japan. They're tapping inventories, like everyone else. Inventories they will need to refill, like everyone else.

[Chad P. Bown @ChadBown]

China is propping up the world economy by importing *A LOT* less oil, as Beijing has plugged a three-million-barrel hole with little visible disruption so far.

Clues to how point at multiple contributing factors. How long can China keep it going?

by @RebeccaYFeng
https://t.co/VFE26aTldO

[Wilhelm Fren @Wilhelm_Fren]

@JucheAffirmer This has not only happened repeatedly across the Middle East conflicts over our lifetimes, but also repeatedly between the US empire and Russia over the course of many decades. This is the default US playbook regardless of president.

[Wilhelm Fren @Wilhelm_Fren]

@DarioCpx DeSantis was adopted by Thiel & little tech for a presidential run, and then abandoned in favour of Trump. So the fact he is correct notwithstanding, he may also be salty.

[Wilhelm Fren @Wilhelm_Fren]

Full spectrum suppression on crude prices.

- Jawbone peace with the aid of Barak Ravid at Axios (direct feed to Bloomberg terminal) and Saudi media.

- Jawbone supply glut via the likes of Javier Blas (Bloomberg), Robin Brooks (Brookings Institute the Israeli warhawk think-tank)

- Short futures via BoJ in exchange for support defending the JPY

- Short futures domestically using strategic reserve barrels as collateral

- This all shakes oil and speculative traders out of crude futures due to hyper-irrationality of the market and nasty volatility shocks

- Pile retail into short ETFs like SCO to provide constant capital to sell into reduced volume

Very effective strategy, and it one-shots people who believe markets are magical, instant-efficiency machines.

We've known how emergent order works for thousands of years, yet it is still very rarely understood. I have essay attempting to explain emergent logic step-by-step on website fwiw.

[Wilhelm Fren @Wilhelm_Fren]

>They're gonna leave eachother alone for a week

>We're getting a deal in a couple of days that will reopen the Strait

[Open Source Intel @Osint613]

Trump on Netanyahu and Iran:

“He was hit by Iran, and he hit back. I can’t blame him for that. Now they’ve called it quits, so they’re gonna leave each other alone for another week or something.

They both agreed, through me, to stop.

We’re in the final throes of a very good deal that will not allow, in any way or form, nuclear weapons.

And the Strait will open up right away. It’ll open up immediately upon signing, which could be in two or three days.”

[Marhelm @MarhelmData]

Greek shipowners positioned crude carriers near India and East Africa, anticipating a surge in freight rates if the Persian Gulf reopens.

However, the fear is that by the time the strait opens, their ships will be covered in so many barnacles they won't be able to move.

[هنر جنگ @dolfiniran]

۱۲:۴۸/ ۱۸ خرداد
تنگه هرمز کاملا بسته شد. اکنون دو‌تنگه باب المندب ‌و هرمز مسدود است. در گام بعدی زیرساخت نفت و گاز کشورهای متحد امریکا در منطقه هدف قرار خواهد گرفت.

[Wilhelm Fren @Wilhelm_Fren]

The war restarted on May 7th when the U.S. launched the first of many offensives on Bandar Abbas

[Mario Nawfal @MarioNawfal]

NO THE WAR HAS NOT RESTARTED

[Wilhelm Fren @Wilhelm_Fren]

Democratic support means nothing. Israel owns the U.S. financial system, it owns congress, it owns most of the media - social and classic - and it owns most of the American cultural industry. Israel has a near absolute grip on the real levers of power.

Further, Israeli aggression soaking blame is explicit U.S. geopolitical strategy.

[OSINTdefender @sentdefender]

Netanyahu is definitely fuming right now, though let’s wait and see if he is willing to risk further support from the United States, one of the last countries that still staunchly supports Israel, just for the domestic points he will score by striking Iran. I’d say it’s 50/50.

[Wilhelm Fren @Wilhelm_Fren]

The Israel lobby operation Brookings Institute laid out the playbook the U.S. has followed regarding Iran.

Focusing on individual political figures is a natural impulse, but leads one to miss the forest for the trees.

[Rory Johnston @Rory_Johnston]

Again it’s so clear that Trump wants a deal and has little interest in resuming the war.

Just still not yet enough pressure for Trump to make the necessary concessions to get it done.

Interesting question as to whether kinetic exchanges like this bring him closer to doing so.

[Wilhelm Fren @Wilhelm_Fren]

Started?

[WarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧 @WarMonitor3]

Iran may of just started another regional war very silly move...

[Wilhelm Fren @Wilhelm_Fren]

@pradracos @anasalhajji Exactly.

Very few analysts seem willing to admit this, if they even comprehend it. Israel will never stop killing. They will do everything in their power (which is profound) to continue their campaign of genocide toward a Greater Israel.

[Wilhelm Fren @Wilhelm_Fren]

This is especially shocking because these are the only countries in the empire with significant inventories.

What we would have expected from a truly broad-based shortage is for countries with no inventories to become major emergency export hubs.

[Art Berman @aeberman12]

The "global inventory collapse" story has a problem

84% of it has come from the US & Japan--both actively withdrawing SPRs, writes Kpler's @mattvsmith01

That's not the broad-based global shortage we keep hearing about

#OilMarkets #CrudeOil #SPR #InventoryData #WTI #EnergyMarkets #Hormuz #FollowTheData #CommodityMarkets

[Wilhelm Fren @Wilhelm_Fren]

Market isnt even considering basics like how long Iran will need after US surrender to be sure enough that the surrender is even real before they release their leverage over the Strait.

Which will then be on a hair trigger the microsecond Israel steps out of line.