$BTC
In earlier Bitcoin cycles, price would never retest prior All Time Highs in a Bear Market
But with each passing cycle, Bitcoin would get increasingly closer to retesting All Time Highs during Bear Market corrections
Until in 2022 price actually deviated below the All Time Highs
If this tendency continues, Bitcoin would deviate once again below old All Time Highs in this cycle as well
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Bitcoin has been able to press beyond both old All Time Highs from 2021 and 2024
That said, there are technical nuances to this ascent
For example, Bitcoin has been able to successfully turn the 2021 old All Time Highs into support on the Weekly timeframe (green circle)
However, Bitcoin hasn't necessarily performed a standard retest of the 2024 old All Time Highs (orange circle)
Should Bitcoin dip more then that would be a logical retesting area in the short-term
And should Bitcoin indeed Monthly Close above both of these old ATHs, then a retest of both of these levels would be on the cards
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Bitcoin continues to spend time between these two Macro EMAs
Bitcoin indeed produced a relief rally from the 50-Month EMA (purple) to reach the green 21-Month EMA which is where price could be falling short
If history repeats, Bitcoin could reject from here to then breakdown from the purple 50-Month EMA into additional Bearish Acceleration over time
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Many are asking why I drew the Macro Downtrend this way
I drew it in late November 2025 (and haven't changed it since) as a speculative line of best fit which proved to have been an almost picture-perfect rejection point for the January 2026 upside wick
Though Bitcoin missed this trendline by barely 3%, the Downtrend has been proven to be a valid reaction point for price and it will probably continue to be that way
The best trendlines are the ones that are drawn based on timeless TA principles ahead of time and then later their credibility is verified by price reacting from them
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Bitcoin just closed above $80K.
Why am I not buying?
Two CME gaps still open. One at $83K above us. One at $67K below.
CME gaps fill. That's the rule.
Bull trap setup is right here.
Patient longs win. Greedy ones get liquidated.
During crashes:
- #Altcoins go down first.
- #Bitcoin follows.
- Nasdaq comes after that.
We've had that part.
Now, oil is peaking, Gold has peaked.
The volatility goes down on Gold, means that the risk of holding that asset is decreased.
That means that allocators are buying back in #Bitcoin for upside, as Bitcoin is heavily undervalued.
During bounces:
- Nasdaq bounces up first.
- #Bitcoin follows in 1-3 weeks after that.
- #Altcoins follow in 1-3 weeks after that.
We're transitioning towards the last part.
🔥 NEW: Google Cloud and the Solana Foundation launched https://t.co/6CT1TG2tjw, a pay-as-you-go system enabling AI agents to access and pay for APIs with stablecoins on Solana without subscriptions.
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Bitcoin continues to remain beneath the Macro Triangle it broke down from months ago
Bitcoin has never been able to reclaim a Macro Triangle once price had broken down from it
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For Bitcoin to build renewed and sustained macro bullish momentum it would need to reclaim not just $82500 but also break its multi-month series of Lower Highs (Macro Downtrend)
History suggests neither of these technical milestones will happen and that the Bear Market still has ~6 months to go
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