William Selaj

Investor. Real Estate. Optimist.

[William Selaj @William_Selaj]

@AlphaOwlTrading $KLAR CEO too bought $10M recently

[Mark Zuckerberg @finkd]

Last month I wrote about how we can build a positive and safe future for everyone: https://t.co/eoLGVY8yad

Every lab has the responsibility and incentive to move at the pace required to train its models safely, and the ability to take its own actions to ensure that happens.

The reality is:

- People won't want to use agents that are misaligned with them and that don't do what they ask, so labs have a strong natural incentive to make their models more aligned.

There is a lot of debate about slowing progress on capabilities until alignment catches up. My view is that trust and alignment are quickly becoming the most important capabilities that will differentiate agents and models. Any lab that doesn't focus on alignment will fall behind.

- Labs face significant liability if their models cause harm, so they have a strong incentive to prevent this as well.

Meta delayed shipping Muse for several months to focus on safety and security. We didn't call for everyone else to do this before we would. We just did it as part of our day-to-day work because it was clearly the right thing for people and for us. I'm proud of the security foundations we've built.

- Engaging independent evaluators and advisors is industry best practice. MSL already does this today in several areas because it helps produce better work. Other labs can just do this too. In general, it would be helpful for there to be a larger and more diverse ecosystem of evaluators.

- Committing the significant majority of compute towards serving people rather than racing towards recursive self-improvement is one of the best ways to ensure we develop this technology safely. Meta has made this commitment and other labs can do this as well.

I believe the key to building a positive future for everyone is maintaining the right balance of power. This is within our power to do.

[William Selaj @William_Selaj]

@alexandr_wang Make an IpadOS version

[Jesse Cohen @JesseCohenInv]

🚨Iranian missile impact in central Tel Aviv.

[The Transcript @TheTranscript_]

Buffett on reading financials:

"That’s something we’ve never really talked about publicly, but I actually spend more time looking at balance sheets than income statements. Wall Street often focuses on income statements, but I like to study balance sheets — ideally over an 8 to 10-year period — before I even glance at the income statement. You can’t hide as much on the balance sheet. It's harder to manipulate than earnings figures"

[William Selaj @William_Selaj]

@BillAckman What happened to SPARC?

[Bill Ackman @BillAckman]

The United States is about to become a vastly superior place to do business. We are already the safest and most militarily capable country in the world making us an extremely attractive place to live and raise a family in an increasingly dangerous world.

These facts have not gone unnoticed by successful people around the world who are not happy with what their own countries have become, and how their governments have turned against their hardest working and most successful citizens.

The problem with our immigration system is that it takes years for the talented, hard-working, successful, law-abiding immigrants to get in, and it takes only days for illegal migrants to cross the border and enter the country. We need to reverse this absurdity.

Imagine if we could vet applicants who wanted to bring their talents and resources here in a 45-60 day process as long as they met certain standards for excellence and character. This is not a particularly challenging problem and that’s before comparing it with catching a Super Heavy rocket with chopsticks.

We could open the floodgates for entrepreneurs, scientists, engineers, makers, designers and more who could replace the illegal migrants and those who have been consuming resources and bringing crime to our cities and towns.

The new immigrants would be force multipliers, bringing and building businesses which will drive our economy and employment. Consider the impact of deporting one criminal migrant and replacing him with a technology engineer and then do the multiplication.

The positive impact on our economy and growth rate would be extraordinary. Think Israel after its Russian migration when the best and brightest scientists and engineers left oppression and helped to build start up nation.

Think the United States in the 1930s when German scientists came and enabled our rocket, missile and atomic capabilities that helped win the war and build industries thereafter.

The time has come.

[Bill Ackman @BillAckman]

A number of my good friends and family have been surprised about my decision to support @realDonaldTrump for president. They have been surprised because my political giving history has been mostly to Democrats, my voting registration has typically been Democrat (in NY, you must be registered to the party in order to vote in the primary, and usually the Republican candidate has no chance to win), and many of our philanthropic initiatives have supported issues that are consistent with Democratic priorities.

All of the above said, I have always considered myself to be a centrist and/or moderate, and I have voted for the candidate and supported the issues and policies that I believe are in the best interest of the country. Some have accused me of supporting Trump because doing so will somehow benefit me financially. Fortunately, I do not need any financial benefits as I and my family have well more than we need. I have also committed to give away the substantial majority of my resources at or by the time I am no longer, so I don't consider personal financial benefits in the determination of whom I support for office.

Some have suggested that I am supporting Trump because I am seeking a position in his administration. To be clear, I haven't been offered one and I wouldn't take a job in the administration (I love my job and it is the wrong time in my life to work in an administration). I will, however, do everything else I can to help the president succeed in helping our country and its citizens.

All of the above said, I am an investor who manages funds that own some of the best, principally American, businesses in the world. In a better governed and managed America, these business will do better and increase in value faster. One might therefore argue that being 'long' America is somehow a conflict, so I thought to disclose this potential 'conflict' here.

Some of my friends and family who support @KamalaHarris are ok with my supporting Trump, but don't want me to attempt to convince others to support him. Because I strongly believe that a Trump administration will be better for the country and the world than a Harris administration, I think it is important to share my thinking to the extent it helps others come to the right conclusion.

Three months ago, when I endorsed Trump on the day of the first assassination attempt, I promised to share my thinking about why I came to this conclusion in a future more detailed post. I intend to do so in possibly more than one post, with the first, this one, explaining the actions and policies of the Biden/Harris administration and Democratic Party that were the catalysts for my losing total confidence in the administration and the Party.

To be clear, my decision to vote for Trump is not an endorsement of everything he has done or will do because he is an imperfect man. Unlike a marriage or a business partnership where there are effectively unlimited alternatives, in this election, we have only two viable choices. Of the two, I believe that Trump is by far the superior candidate despite his flaws and mistakes he has made in the past.

As always, I welcome your feedback on how I could be wrong and on how the below actions and policies I outline below might actually have been good for America. I have always believed that the best way to get to the truth is to hear the best arguments on all sides of an issue.

While the 33 actions I describe below are those of the Democratic Party and the Biden/Harris administration, they are also the actions and policies that unfortunately our most aggressive adversaries would likely implement if they wanted to destroy America from within, and had the ability to take control of our leadership.

These are the 33:

(1) open the borders to millions of immigrants who were not screened for their risk to the country, dumping them into communities where the new immigrants overwhelm existing communities and the infrastructure to support the new entrants, at the expense of the historic residents,

(2) introduce economic policies and massively increase spending without regard to their impact on inflation and the consequences for low-income Americans and the increase in our deficit and national debt,

(3) withdraw from Afghanistan, abandoning our local partners and the civilians who worked alongside us in an unprepared, overnight withdrawal that led to American casualties and destroyed the lives of Afghani women and girls for generations, against the strong advice of our military leadership, and thereafter not showing appropriate respect for their loss at a memorial ceremony in their honor,

(4) introduce thousands of new and unnecessary regulations in light of the existing regulatory regime that interfere with our businesses’ ability to compete, restraining the development of desperately needed housing, infrastructure, and energy production with the associated inflationary effects,

(5) modify the bail system so that violent criminals are released without bail,

(6) destroy our street retailers and communities and promote lawlessness by making shoplifting (except above large thresholds) no longer a criminal offense,

(7) limit and/or attempt to limit or ban fracking and LNG so that U.S. energy costs increase substantially and the U.S. loses its energy independence,

(8) promote DEI ideologies that award jobs, awards, and university admissions on the basis of race, sexual identity and gender criteria, and teach our students and citizens that the world can only be understood as an unfair battle between oppressors and the oppressed, where the oppressors are only successful due to structural racism or a rigged system and the oppressed are simply victims of an unfair system and world,

(9) educate our elementary children that gender is fluid, something to be chosen by a child, and promote hormone blockers and gender reassignment surgeries to our youth without regard to the longer-term consequences to their mental and physical health, and allow biological boys and men to compete in girls and women's sports, depriving girls and women of scholarships, awards, and other opportunities that they would have rightly earned otherwise,

(10) encourage and celebrate massive protests and riots that lead to the burning and destruction of local retail and business establishments while at the same time requiring schools to be shuttered because of the risk of Covid-19 spreading during large gatherings,

(11) encourage and celebrate anti-American and anti-Israel protests and flag burning on campuses around the country with no consequences for the protesters who violate laws or university codes and policies,

(12) allow antisemitism to explode with no serious efforts from the administration to quell this hatred,

(13) mandate vaccines that have not been adequately tested nor have their risks been properly considered compared with the potential benefits adjusted for the age and health of the individual, censoring the contrary advice of top scientists around the world,

(14) shut down free speech in media and on social media platforms that is inconsistent with government policies and objectives,

(15) use the U.S., state, and local legal systems to attack and attempt to jail, take off the campaign trail, and/or massively fine candidates for the presidency without regard to the merits or precedential issues of the case,

(16) seek to defund the police and promote anti-police rhetoric causing a loss of confidence in those who are charged with protecting us,

(17) use government funds to subsidize auto companies and internet providers with vastly more expensive, dated and/or lower-quality technology when greatly superior and cheaper alternatives are available from companies that are owned and/or managed by individuals not favored by the current administration,

(18) mandate in legislation and otherwise government solutions to problems when the private sector can do a vastly better, faster, and cheaper job,

(19) seek to ban gas-powered cars and stoves without regard to the economic and practical consequences of doing so,

(20) take no serious actions when 45 American citizens are killed by terrorists and 12 are taken hostage,

(21) hold back armaments and weaponry from our most important ally in the Middle East in the midst of their hostage negotiations, hostages who include American citizens who have now been held for more than one year,

(22) eliminate sanctions on one of our most dangerous enemies enabling them to generate $150 billion+ of cash reserves from oil sales, which they can then use to fund terrorist proxy organizations who attack us and our allies. Exchange five American hostages held by Iran for five Iranians plus $6 billion of cash in the worst hostage negotiation in history setting a disastrous and dangerous precedent,

(23) remove known terrorist organizations from the terrorist list so we can provide aid to their people, and allow them to shoot rockets at U.S. assets and military bases with little if any military response from us,

(24) lie to the American people about the cognitive health of the president and accuse those who provide video evidence of his decline of sharing doctored videos and being right wing conspirators,

(25) do nothing about the deteriorating health of our citizens driven by the food industrial complex, the fraudulent USDA food pyramid, and the inclusion of ingredients in our food that are banned by other countries around the world which are more protective of their citizens,

(26) do nothing about the proliferation of new vaccines that are not properly analyzed for their risk versus the potential benefit for healthy children who are mandated to receive them,

(27) do nothing about the continued exemption from liability for the pharma industry that has led to a proliferation of mandatory vaccines for children without considering the potential cumulative effects of the now mandated 72-shot regime,

(28) convince our minority youth that they are victims of a rigged system and that the American dream is not available to them,

(29) fail to provide adequate Secret Service protection for alternative presidential candidates,

(30) litigate to prevent alternative candidates from getting on the ballot, and take other anti-competitive steps including threatening political consultants who wish to work for alternative candidates for the presidency, and limit the potential media access for other candidates by threatening the networks' future access to the administration and access to 'scoops' if they platform an alternative candidate,

(31) select the Democratic nominee for president in a backroom process by undisclosed party leaders without allowing Americans to choose between candidates in an open primary,

(32) choose an inferior candidate for the presidency when other much more qualified candidates are available and interested to serve,

(33) litigate to make it illegal for states to require proof of citizenship, voter ID, and/or residence in order to vote at a time when many Americans have lost confidence in the accuracy and trustworthiness of our voting system.

I welcome your thoughts.

[Rothmus 🏴 @Rothmus]

👀

[Dima Zeniuk @DimaZeniuk]

𝕏 at 10pm on a Saturday night

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

To the stars

[Bill Ackman @BillAckman]

The best way to reduce drug prices in the U.S. is to make it illegal for drug companies to sell the same drugs abroad for lower prices than they sell them for here.

This will force a globally negotiated price that will be lower than the prices that U.S. consumers pay now and higher than what foreigners pay now.

Otherwise we are stuck with a system where American consumers subsidize drug development for the rest of the world.

Ask any pharma company CEO. They will agree that the above approach will have the intended effect.

[Sam Altman @sama]

fk it why not 8

[Bill Ackman @BillAckman]

It is a very good day for my psychological short on @Herbalife. And it is an even better day for the world to see one of the biggest pyramid schemes fail.

That said, it is sad that so many with so little have been deceived and bankrupted by Herbalife. And it is incredibly disappointing that the FTC in 2016 chose to settle with Herbalife for $200 million and allow it to continue to operate.

The FTC knew that Herbalife was a pyramid scheme in 2016. It knew this because it had hired a senior @UCBerkeley economist and his team to analyze Herbalife distributor data and quit rates that the FTC had obtained by subpoena from the company.

With access to these data, the Berkeley economist concluded in a detailed analytical report that Herbalife was a pyramid scheme.

However, instead of shutting HLF down, the @FTC took the quick victory and headline benefit of a $200m settlement. It did so apparently because it was afraid of battling with Carl Icahn and the legal team he had assembled compared with the quick benefits of a $200m settlement and favorable headlines.

@KamalaHarris, as attorney general of the state of California, also had the opportunity to shut down Herbalife. In fact, her former office still has the benefit of a consent decree that HLF had entered into in 1986 that enabled the California AG to shut down the company overnight if HLF continued its pyramid scheme practices.

In fact, AG Harris’ staff recommended that she should shut down HLF in around 2017, but she refused to do so. As a result, her staff leaked its memo to us and the media at that time. Unfortunately, by then no one was interested in the story.

Interestingly, at that same time, AG Harris’ husband was a partner at Venable, one of HLF’s top law firms. HLF has always been very savvy about managing its regulatory and legal risks.

[The media might seek to get a copy of the Berkeley economist’s report and also dig up a copy of the California AG staff memo (we probably have a copy of that memo in a file somewhere.)]

The whole situation is an incredibly damning indictment of how our regulatory enforcement apparatus works.

Our regulators failure to act cost newly recruited HLF distributors billions of dollars in losses over the last nearly eight years since the FTC settlement.

HLF distributors are generally low-income, often undocumented aspiring entrepreneurs pursuing what they are misled into believing is the American dream.

The FTC’s failure to act made Carl Icahn a billion dollars and cost Pershing Square investors a billion dollars, but that’s a side show.

If you are an Herbalife employee, the time to leave is now. Herbalife is not a good look on your resume. The longer you stay at the company, the worse your future job prospects.

I always wondered how a legitimate person could work for a pyramid scheme.

And to Michael Johnson, the HLF management team and its board of directors:

Shame on you for the incredible harm you have caused and the lives you have destroyed.

[Bill Ackman @BillAckman]

Pershing Square SPARC Holdings, Ltd.

If your large private growth company wants to go public without the risks and expenses of a typical IPO, with Pershing Square as your anchor shareholder, please call me. We promise a quick yes or no. https://t.co/6YXVZm9EgQ

[William Selaj @William_Selaj]

@BillAckman Or because the aftermath of a coup is often a time of chaos and uncertainty in which Putin can use to eliminate political rivals, consolidate power, or push through previously unpopular measures.

[William Selaj @William_Selaj]

@BillAckman I think that such an act could also be a way to test the loyalties of various factions within the military, government, or broader society. By observing who supports the coup and who opposes it, they might understand where true loyalties lie.

[William Selaj @William_Selaj]

@BillAckman What would be Putin’s benefit in doing that?

[Bill Ackman @BillAckman]

Jamie Dimon is one of the world's most respected business leaders. Politically he is a centrist. He is pro-business and pro-free enterprise, but also supportive of well-designed social programs and rational tax policies that can help the less fortunate. He is extremely smart, thoughtful, and pragmatic, and he knows how to bring opposing parties together. He is highly respected by the Right, the Left, and the Center.

Jamie is beloved by his 240,000+ employees, highly respected by our military as well as by the global political and business leaders that matter. He has superbly managed @jpmorgan through every crisis, and has built the world's best, large, global financial institution working for clients from startups and mom and pops, to global institutions and countries.

Our country is at risk with $32T of debt with no end to massive deficits in sight, heading into a recession at a time of great political uncertainty. We need an exemplary business, financial, and global leader to manage through what is likely to be a critically important decade for our country in determining our destiny.

Jamie Dimon is that leader.

Jamie is of exemplary and unimpeachable character. He is a no bullshit, straight-talking, charismatic leader with an enormous grasp of the world's issues and how to address them. He is a great communicator that makes everyone who hears his words feel respected and inspired. He has enormous energy, vigor, and drive.

He is a wonderful father, friend, husband, and son. In sum, he is the kind of person our country deserves as our next leader. And clearly he is thinking about running:

https://t.co/ucE7a6T2D5

I can't imagine a better time for him to do so.

@POTUS is extremely weak and in cognitive decline. 70% of Democrats don't want him to run. Biden's weakness sets up a large opening for a qualified outsider to run as a Democrat.

Jamie can beat Biden in the primary and @realDonaldTrump in the general election, but he needs to start now and build name recognition among the broad electorate. He will easily raise billions of dollars from Democrats and Republicans to fund his campaign, and he knows how to build support.

Each year, Jamie gets on a bus and travels around the country meeting with tellers, branch managers, and other employees to spread the culture and inspire the JPM team; great preparation for a presidential run. He will also be incredible on the debate stage.

And there is nothing more for him to achieve at JPM. He has already been crowned the world's best banker. JPM stock will go up even more when he becomes POTUS as he can do more for the bank and our economy as President than he can as Chairman and CEO of JPM. The bank will be in great shape since he has built a deep succession bench that is more than ready to step up.

There is only one better job for Jamie than CEO of JPM and that's POTUS.

Jamie just needs a push from people he respects and from the broader electorate. If you agree that he should be our next POTUS, give him a call, send him an email or go see him, and like and retweet this tweet.

This will be one of the most important elections in our country's history. Jamie is more likely to run if we build a groundswell of support for him. Let's do our civic duty and make it happen.

Our challenges as a nation are largely due to failures of leadership. America needs and deserves great leadership and we need it now.