Bayes’ theorem is probably the single most important thing any rational person can learn.
So many of our debates and disagreements that we shout about are because we don’t understand Bayes’ theorem or how human rationality often works.
Bayes’ theorem is named after the 18th-century Thomas Bayes, and essentially it’s a formula that asks: when you are presented with all of the evidence for something, how much should you believe it?
Bayes’ theorem teaches us that our beliefs are not fixed; they are probabilities. Our beliefs change as we weigh new evidence against our assumptions, or our priors. In other words, we all carry certain ideas about how the world works, and new evidence can challenge them.
For example, somebody might believe that smoking is safe, that stress causes mouth ulcers, or that human activity is unrelated to climate change. These are their priors, their starting points. They can be formed by our culture, our biases, or even incomplete information.
Now imagine a new study comes along that challenges one of your priors. A single study might not carry enough weight to overturn your existing beliefs. But as studies accumulate, eventually the scales may tip. At some point, your prior will become less and less plausible.
Bayes’ theorem argues that being rational is not about black and white. It’s not even about true or false. It’s about what is most reasonable based on the best available evidence. But for this to work, we need to be presented with as much high-quality data as possible. Without evidence—without belief-forming data—we are left only with our priors and biases. And those aren’t all that rational.
47.5 crore (over 93 per cent) forms digitised.
99.83 % (50.88 crore) Electors receive the Enumeration Forms of SIR Phase II in 12 States/ UTs.
EFs can be submitted till 11th December, 2025.
Read more: https://t.co/o53JRctptj
Please Read #Bihar SIR DAILY BULLETIN: 1st Aug(3 PM) till 18th Aug (1 PM)at https://t.co/pj8N5tawnD
Other Ref. Links:
Link 1: https://t.co/4OCIHTLT9b
Link 2: https://t.co/6GlXD5AP4r
Link 3: https://t.co/DHPHMx3taQ
Link 4: https://t.co/TlCucBqrcd
Link 5: https://t.co/vuCaki77tW
3 out of every 4 #Bihar electors have submitted their Enumeration Forms
✅ 74.39 % Enumeration Forms Collected
#SIR
Read in detail :
https://t.co/LYewqnMIrp
The most significant movement in this week's polling average update notes negative changes in both Trump and Musk's favorability.
After their spat, both have seen public opinion dip in recent days, primarily due to losses in favorability among polled Republicans.
7-day change in averages:
🟠Presidential Disapproval +0.3%
🟣Trump Unfavorable +1.9%
🟢Vance Favorable +0.5%
🟣Musk Unfavorable +1.6%
🟢Schumer Favorable +0.5%
🟤Wrong Track +1.7%
🔴Republican Generic Ballot +0.5%
You can follow the polling movement, including tracking crosstab averages on Presidential approval at https://t.co/a3TUfOcxjA.
Election Commission will take action as per Article 326, RP act, 1950 and relevant Supreme Court judgements, for linking EPIC with Aadhaar.
Technical consultations between UIDAI and experts of ECI are to begin soon.
Read in detail : https://t.co/bICjzXCQ4A
5 DAYS TO GO! Get ready to experience two days filled with inspiration, innovation and incredible networking opportunities. Mark your calendars – it’s going to be a game-changer!
#IPE2025#UnlockingVoterPotential
Operating as a political analysis and agenda-setting firm, we ensure our team remains impartial to parties' internal dynamics. Upon analyzing data and intelligence, we submit tailored recommendations to party leadership for their final decision-making.
#Election#ElectionBureau
False campaign is being run by some (other than candidates) in furtherance of design to discredit largest elections ever held in the history of mankind in most transparent manner involving candidates/ stakeholders at every stage of elections.
1/3
➡️False Claim: 15 lakh EVMs missing
➡️Reality : claim is misleading and #fake. Facts are twisted & presented selectively. There are no missing EVMs. Honble Supreme Court also dismissed the petitions on missing EVMs.
For more info check out FAQs link 👉
https://t.co/GRxqZfXLnZ
Most Probable or Expected Days for LokSabha Election 2024
Election Notification: March 12 or 13
Election Nomination: March 28
Phase one: April 19
Election Results: May 22-23
#LokSabhaElection2024#LokSabhaElections
BJP's vote share is likely to increase in four constituencies in Kerala.
1. Thrissur
2. Attingal
3. Pathanamthitta
4. Trivandrum
If there is no direct contest between LDF and UDF then NDA can win here with the advantage of three-way fight.
#Election2024#LokSabhaElection2024