WindroseTrader

No Profit Too Small! #HBAR

[WindroseTrader @WindroseTrader]

@ProfitsTaken Neither is small business. Crushing diesel prices, tariffs and now international shipping costs and delivery times increasing.

[WindroseTrader @WindroseTrader]

@Vegas_Legacy_ Great list @vegasstarfish. I would add Joe Stone at Caesars to it.

[NELLYLEGION @NellyLegion]

A lot of your favorite athletes like to talk about discipline....Nelly Korda backs it up.

She literally uses a product / app called Brick to keep herself off social media.

NK really does try to live in a bubble.

📽️ | @WHOOP | Official YT with link below

[Mark Minervini @markminervini]

I’ve had this on the wall in my office for almost 20 years, and I still read it every morning

[WindroseTrader @WindroseTrader]

@ProfitsTaken Excellent post. Always very thorough analysis @ProfitsTaken

[Peter Tarr @ProfitsTaken]

ALERT: Rising diesel is a nuke-level threat to equity values. Not crude. Diesel.

The 411: Higher diesel forces inflation up. The Feds just showed us they'll hike into a supply shock (wrong as that may be). Once they shift from "removing accommodation" to "restrictive," $QQQ, $XLK, $SMH and the hyperscalers get hit hard. And no, it won't take years. It happens quickly.

Why diesel, not crude

Crude is the input. Diesel is the product that moves almost everything. Trucks haul roughly 65% of US freight by weight, and fuel runs 30–40% of a carrier's operating cost. That passes through fast. Fuel surcharges first, then farms, builders, retailers and manufacturers eat it. Heating oil tracks diesel, and Northeast winter heating forecasts are already up 30% to as much as ~50%.

The number: US average diesel hit a record ~$6.49/gal on Sep 19 (AAA). Up ~5% in one week and nearly 75% above a year ago (~$3.71). Gasoline went up, but diesel went up more because the stress is in distillates and inventories are weak.

Why it isn't easing

Russia: 22 of 34 refineries attacked in 2026 (Oxford), covering ~4.75M bpd of capacity. IEA had June throughput ~30% below a year earlier, with diesel output down about the same. Mid-September, 3 of Russia's 6 largest diesel plants were halted or cut hard. Yaroslavl went down Sep 17. Moscow's refinery got hit again Sep 20, about 16 miles from the Kremlin.

Hormuz: Iran says the Strait stays closed until its conditions are met. Crossings rose ~53% last week to 118, but that's a bounce off a depressed base, not a breakthrough. Product flows are the diesel channel, and that channel has been broken since March. Positive vibes posting from officials hasn't changed that. Otherwise it would have worked already.

Bessent can't fix this one either. No Treasury program replaces a barrel that never became diesel because the refinery got blown up.

What the Feds do with it

Hiking into a supply shock is awful policy. They can't create supply. They can only crush demand. But what matters is what they'll do, not what they should do. They just hiked against a supply shock with a 12-0 vote, even though Powell condemned exactly that previously. If diesel gets worse, they hike more.

Diesel controls freight. Freight controls goods prices. Sticky services inflation follows the goods. That's the flow order.

September's hike was "removing accommodation" per Chair Warsh. Markets can still bid up growth under that. "Restrictive" is different. That's where duration and multiples reprice, same as 2022. I called that downturn in early January 2022, well before the first hike, and posted it on X. Markets priced it ahead of the Fed then. They will again.

How to use this for trading and investing

Watch diesel, not just WTI. The AAA national average and weekly distillate inventories are the tells.

Watch the 10Y and 30Y. Bonds price inflation risk before equities admit it.

Watch the Fed's language. "Removing accommodation" turning into "restrictive" is the trigger, and it gets priced before it's official.

Know your exposure. Long-duration growth takes it first: $QQQ, $XLK, $SMH, hyperscalers. Not because earnings drop overnight. Because discount rates rise and risk appetite dries up fast.

Inventories and SPR-style buffers buy time short term. But if diesel stays elevated while Hormuz stays politicized and Russian capacity stays impaired, the inflation arithmetic does not clear.

Clock is ticking. There needs to be a break soon.

See thread for how I play it in more detail.

[Vegas Golden Knights @GoldenKnights]

Your 2026 Empire Classic Winners ⚔️🔥

[Vegas Golden Knights @GoldenKnights]

WE ARE SO BACK

[WindroseTrader @WindroseTrader]

@GoldenKnights Let's Go! @GoldenKnights

[Matt Giannino @MarketMovesMatt]

HIRING: Option Sellers.

Requirements:

→ A brokerage account
→ Ability to follow a simple system
→ Willingness to close your laptop by 9:30am
→ Wifi connection

Not required:

→ Experience
→ Finance degree
→ Full-time hours

Benefits:

→ Salary: $5K-$15K/month
→ Hours: 1-2 hours per week
→ Dress code: whatever you slept in
→ Commute: bed to couch

Start date: The next 5% red day

[Paul A. Szypula 🇺🇸 @Bubblebathgirl]

Carrot Top has taken more cheap shots than almost anyone still working a Vegas stage, and Friday he was hospitalized in Las Vegas. His Luxor show was canceled. That isn’t a punchline. It’s a reminder that a famous person can still be in real trouble.

Scott Thompson has been on that stage for years. People mocked the hair, the props, the whole act, as if that was all he was. He kept showing up anyway. Criticism of a routine is fair. Treating a man in a hospital like content isn’t.

His family asked for privacy and said he’s receiving care. That should be the end of the public part. He doesn’t owe the internet a statement. He doesn’t owe anyone a joke about it.

If you’re struggling, get help. In the U.S. call or text 988. Leave Thompson alone and let him recover. A long career doesn’t make a person invincible. It just makes the silence after the show louder.

[The Real Mike Rowe @mikeroweworks]

Today is the third Friday of September, also known as National Tradesmen Day. To celebrate, a young and cheeky editor at mikeroweWORKS has assembled a video to remind the world about what I looked like 18 years ago, back when I boldly proclaimed my intention to reinvigorate the skilled trades with some sort of ad hoc PR initiative.

Looking back, I think you’ll agree my performance – delivered after several beers on Labor Day of 2008 - was a fairly cringe-worthy spasm of uncharacteristic earnestness. It was, however, well-intended, and useful I think, in rallying others who shared my sentiment. In fact, a few years later in 2011, when Irwin Tools decided to launch National Tradesman Day, they called upon me to announce the occasion, which I was delighted to do. In return, Irwin donated $10,000 to my newly formed foundation, which I used to help fund our first round of work ethic scholarships.

Since then, lots of other likeminded companies and organizations have asked me to help them launch similar efforts to reinvigorate the trades, including the latest initiative from the Pentagon called https://t.co/IhaBSMIY6b. I agreed, and in return, Build Freedom has donated $10 million dollars to mikeroweWORKS, which we’ll spend on the next round of work ethic scholarships. And so, we appear to be trending in the right direction.

Anyway, enjoy the attached video, a genuine blast from my past, and hopefully, an accurate look into the future. Better yet, share it with it someone in the trades, and help us commemorate National Tradesman Day by reminding the country that many excellent opportunities in the skilled trades are waiting to be filled, and that mikeroweWORKS is here to pay for the training you need to get started.

Apply today at https://t.co/ju76O0XWgC

Carry on,
Mike

[Brian Armstrong @brian_armstrong]

@Jason It's digital gold - here to stay, and as important as ever.

[Michele Tafoya @Michele_Tafoya]

🚨Our race is now a TOSS UP!

We’ve closed the gap, and our momentum is clear. I’m going to keep working hard every day to earn every vote.

Get out and vote, Minnesota!

https://t.co/KIpY9fItIi

[The Honest Trader @TheH0n3stTrader]

Every profitable trader I know is weird.

Something happened to them that made them choose a different life.

Instead of choosing parties, drugs, alcohol, and sex, they chose work, discipline, loneliness, and social isolation.

We're different from most people.

If we were normal, we'd be working a 9-to-5 job too.

[WindroseTrader @WindroseTrader]

@blockchainchick Thoughts @ProfitsTaken ?

[WindroseTrader @WindroseTrader]

@ShireenArtist So talented!

[Isabel | Trading Psychology Expert @trad_ISABEL]

Don't quit trading.

You've come too far to walk away now.

You already know too much to pretend you don't.

That knowledge? It doesn't disappear.

Keep going.

[WindroseTrader @WindroseTrader]

@EyeGravee Enjoy!

[Matt Giannino @MarketMovesMatt]

A student sent me his trade log last week.

$50K account. Every single position held to expiration.

Me: "Why don't you close at 50%?"
Him: "I want the full premium."

Me: "How much did you make last month?"
Him: "$2500."

Me: "What if you closed at 50% in 8 days and recycled?"

We did the math together.

His way:
→ Full premium
→30 days
→$2500.

My way:
→ Close at 50% in 8 days. $1250.
→ Recycle. $1250.
→ Recycle again. $1250.

$3750 with the exact same account.

Close at 50% and get back to cash.

Speed compounds. Greed doesn't.