@MPelletierCIO I think the problem is that a lot of the people who were working in the industry in 2008 are no longer so there's no "memory" of what high interest rates do to cost of capital, discounts rates, duration etc...
@VanIsleInvestor Agreed. I think he gets unfairly beat up in the media. May not be always right but he puts himself out there. Provides valuable research and advocates for the sector. I think his fund is up around 40% ytd in 2026.
@MPelletierCIO I don't love a lot that is going on but let's for one minute be objective. The Americans (+ rest of the world) are not wrong about dairy. We should stop holding onto it. Buy back all the quotas, make dairy operators whole and have an orderly transition to a market system.
@RazorOil Nah....the naysayers will say that we can build roads out of solar panels and drive on them with batteries in the median that recharge all the EV driving on solar road. They'll just ignore what the tires and the rest of it are built with.
@MPelletierCIO I'm with you. I'm stunned that no one seems to care that US 30 is north of 5 and many so called income stocks are yielding south of 3 carrying a huge amount of debt.
@RazorOil I don't understand. What are you trying to say? Buy another GPU? Or should I buy a negative free cash flow or something at 50 times sales? (<= all of this is major sarcasm for those that didn't catch it).
@VanIsleInvestor I have been beating this drum for years. IMO share count melts. They raise dividend as share count falls. They don't do major dumb capex spends. They mostly exhaust the allotted buyback amount and then they often do SIBs. There is a reason why it trades where it does.
@VanIsleInvestor The move today is starting to look like short covering/margin call though I have no evidence but for watching similar moves in the past. We'll see what it does going forward though I do suspect some shorts in high 60s have taken major losses, hope they didn't lever all in.
@VanIsleInvestor I think the shorts stayed at the party a little too long. I'm not a technical/chartist by any stretch but there looks to be some margin calls happening with some forced buying/covering. I'll let someone else who has way more knowledge than me examine this.
@MPelletierCIO Hi Martin. I'm not going to be pretend to be in the same league as you but I was around prior to 2000. I see some banks yielding south of 3, some bonds north of 3, 4, 5 depending on term/issuer. Markets ignoring dislocations. Feels like watching a 2x4 bending under pressure.
@RazorOil But but we don't need oil. We can drive battery cars because the rest of the car and the road doesn't require any carbon molecules. We don't need diesel to mine and transport the copper because electricity is magic and we can fly planes minus jet fuel, just slap some solar on it.