Over the past 12 months, the AI boom has added $19 trillion of new marketcap to the top 50 public equities, that’s 13x bitcoin’s total market cap. This historic capex cycle is vacuuming up all liquidity and attention, so it’s astonishing that BTC/USD is this resilient!
Saylor / Strategy selling a few raspberries isn’t causing bitcoin to crash. The reality is that there is a massive parabolic spike in AI-related equities that is vacuuming up all excess liquidity, multiples of bitcoin’s market cap. On top of that, labor market is healthy and energy prices are up, so sentiment for dovish rate cuts is nowhere to be found. Bitcoin’s fundamentals have never been better even if the macro environment isn’t doing it any favors.
@Adelgary@w_s_bitcoin Rating agencies gave MSTR guidance last year as to how to improve their credit rating. They are slowly following their guidance (cash reserves, bitcoin sales, lowering debt, etc.) to get a non junk status rating, and possibly get closer to SP500 inclusion.
@BrianSchmidt9@saylor Possibly correct, open to seeing how pressure gets applied over the years. I hope the decentralized nature of thousands of little selfish dictators has a forcing function on bitcoin adoption, i don't think it comes from sitting down and thinking about kumbaya though.
@BrianSchmidt9@saylor Oh I have come to accepting that equities will likely be traded on centralized shitcoin rails (blackrock developed or otherwise) 24/7 with total control. I don't think 99% of the world will self custody bitcoin, least for many decades. Happy to be wrong, dumb often.
@BrianSchmidt9@saylor I personally disagree that bitcoin (base layer) will ever solve the currency issue. Even with 2nd layers I don't think the vast majority ever run their own bitcoin/lightning node. Debt/credit is exceptionally powerful tool imo. Very much open to being wrong.
@ZynxBTC I have been buying LEAPS just to amplify the small amount of dry powder I can gather. Expect it to preform well, but don't mind a negative outcome if it all doesn't work out.
@TFTC21@LeveredUSTs Initially dismissive of this but decided to listen to full episode. With all things expressed it has more substance than I heard expressed in clip. Curious if @PunterJeff has thoughts on the full segment, & could maybe express in a true north episode. Smart dude @LeveredUSTs
@ZynxBTC Many people are ideologically stuck with some thought of what bitcoin is supposed to be/do. I think it stems from compassion/empathy, but largely the public will not be saved in this process. The public will get a dividend and be happy, we get real money & addtl upside w/risk 🤷♂️
Pretty insane that $SATA reached par today and is now trading at $99.96 with more than two weeks until the ex-dividend date.
The market has spoken, daily dividends and 13% yield is a compelling combination.
I have never been more bullish on $ASST.
The fourth bitcoin bear market has materially decoupled from past cycles, for now. This strength is likely a combination of a muted bull market on the frontend, ETF inflows, and bitcoin treasury companies accumulating.
@hillery_dan I lied, looks like Giovanni's new book shows a euphoria closer to 2030. He does give a caveat about small sample size, doesn't feel as strongly about the log periodic model.
@hillery_dan Curious, you seem to enjoy the Power Law model to some extent, have you looked much into Giovanni/Stephen's thoughts regarding the 'harmonic' nature regarding cycles?
I believe they expect another euphoria phase within the next 18 months or so.
@BTC_broo He'll find where people have used terms like bond, credit, etc and express how they are not similar. He's going to express how you can lose all your money when it doesn't maintain par value and how you have no assurances. He'll show his side and diminish Jeff, takes time to edit
Sat down with @coffeebreak_YT today on Bitcoin and Digital Credit.
His edit will drop soon. Posting the full raw hour for anyone who wants the unfiltered version.
Enjoy