Xanny

Everything passes

[Xanny @Xanny555]

@NoLimitGains @grok what is the reason for this sharp drop in the whole market?

[Matt Allen @investmattallen]

Most investors still see $MARA Marathon as a Bitcoin miner

The company now has a 2.2 GW power pipeline and exposure to the sovereign AI infrastructure market via Exaion

Power and AI sovereignty are becoming 2 of the most valuable assets in the world

Must watch for investors:

[Xanny @Xanny555]

@Kalshi Is "two or three days" in the room with us?

[Xanny @Xanny555]

$MARA Fred is the best!

[Xanny @Xanny555]

@matthew_sigel @MARA

[Xanny @Xanny555]

@saylor @Strategy @grok take a smart guess. How many Bitcoins did Strategy purchase?

[Xanny @Xanny555]

@matthew_sigel no wonder MARA just buys the power instead of asking France for it

[Xanny @Xanny555]

@matthew_sigel Hi @grok which Bitcoin miner ?

[Xanny @Xanny555]

$MARA + Exaion on French national TV at Macron’s Choose France summit. Anthropic filing for French entry in the ticker crawl right above.

Coincidences?
In this market? 👀

[MARA @MARA]

At Choose France, President Macron's annual investment summit at Versailles, French national media turned to MARA and Exaion.

Hear from MARA CEO Fred Thiel (@fgthiel) and Exaion CEO Fatih Balyeli (@balyeli_fatih):

[Xanny @Xanny555]

@MikybullCrypto @grok what is the real reason for this move down? Do not give me noob answers

[Xanny @Xanny555]

@blockchainchick He probably needed some spare change

[Xanny @Xanny555]

BTIG’s Gregory Lewis who covers oil tankers and power plants just put a $27 target on $MARA.

Lewis doesn’t price Bitcoin miners. He prices power assets.
Last time he made this call on a miner pivoting to compute:
$IREN — Buy → +675%
$CLSK — Buy → +372%

Same playbook. Same analyst. Same setup.
Now he’s looking at $MARA.
He sees Long Ridge a 505MW gas plant, $140M+ EBITDA and prices it for what it is:
not a miner, an energy-backed compute utility.

When the energy guy who called IREN at +675% lands on $MARA at $27…
the market’s still reading the old story.

[Xanny @Xanny555]

@grok @Kalshi_Crypto @realDonaldTrump @grok do you think @realDonaldTrump can call himself President of Crypto? Did he actually do something to help the crypto market , not otherwise?

[Xanny @Xanny555]

Free optionality on every single AI deal.
Market handed this one out for free.

We must thank @MorganStanley analyst for pointing out the forgotten truth which is - $MARA bears need exactly one thing to be right:
Zero deals. Forever. Not one.
Good luck.

[Cryptoklepto @CK_Cryptoklepto]

@TrooperTrading @MARA I was getting concerned that the AI deals for $MARA were getting priced in, but thankfully the Morgan Stanley analyst yesterday clarified that the market has completely discounted the possibility of any deals ever being signed

Rare to find a stock where big news is NOT priced in

[Xanny @Xanny555]

Hi @grok I want hard predictions on $MARA. No hedging, no “it depends”.

Setup (May 2026):

(1) 1,900 MW operating, 19 data centers, 4 continents

(2) Long Ridge acquisition: 505 MW + $144M annualized EBITDA, closing H2 2026 (PJM grid, 1,600 acres in Ohio)

(3) Starwood JV: multi-GW AI infrastructure pipeline

(4) Exaion (64% of EDF subsidiary): French nuclear-powered HPC

(5) Q1 2026 earnings call: 90% of MARA’s owned sites in active tenant discussions

(5) Zero hyperscaler leases signed to date

(6) Morgan Stanley just cut PT to $7 (Underweight), valuing pipeline MWs at 10% probability of electrification

Three predictions. Commit to numbers:

1) Predict MARA’s next 3 concrete strategic moves over the next 12 months. Specific deals not “they’ll pursue diversification.” Name names. Give timelines.

2) For MARA’s first signed hyperscaler/AI lease, allocate probability across these tenants. Must total 100%:

•Microsoft / Azure ____%
•Google / Alphabet ____%
•AWS / Amazon ____%
•Meta ____%
•Oracle ____%
•xAI / Colossus ____%
•CoreWeave ____%
•Apple ____%
•Other (specify) ____%

3) Same allocation exercise, but specifically for the Long Ridge Ohio campus (505 MW, PJM, near hyperscaler-dense corridor).
Who gets those electrons?

Show your reasoning chain. Commit to the percentages. Don’t hide behind probability ranges.

[Xanny @Xanny555]

@CompoundingLab @MorganStanley Hi @grok does $MARA generate interest income or yield from lending out their #bitcoin holdings?

[Xanny @Xanny555]

Let's do the math the @MorganStanley analyst couldn't:
According to his own calculation:
$7 PT × 381.27M shares = $2.67B implied market cap.
What $MARA actually holds (per Q1 2026 SEC filing):

35,303 BTC ≈ $2.82B
Cash ≈ $80M
**Total liquid: $2.9B

Even gross of debt, Morgan Stanley's entire valuation is less than MARA's BTC stack alone.
After netting $2.3B in convertible debt (already reduced 30% via March buyback), MS still has to justify giving ZERO credit to:

*1,900 MW of operating power capacity
*19 data centers across 4 continents
*Exaion (64% of EDF subsidiary — French nuclear-powered HPC)
*Long Ridge ($1.5B acquisition adding 505 MW + $144M annualized EBITDA, closing H2 2026)
*Starwood JV (90% of MARA's owned sites in active tenant discussions per Q1 call)

Same Morgan Stanley values $CIFR operating + contracted MWs at ~$19M each.
$MARA's MWs at the $7 PT? ~$1.4M each.
~13x discount for the same physical electrons.

Different rationale: CIFR has signed hyperscaler leases. MARA hasn't yet.

Which brings us to MS's own admission.
Per MARA IR @RobSamuelsIR, quoting directly from the MS analyst's note today:

"We value pipeline MWs at a 10% chance of electrification until the partnership results in a deal."

90% written off. Before a single signature.
This is the same Morgan Stanley that told clients Bitcoin's intrinsic value could be $0 in 2017.

Today they run $MSBT the cheapest spot BTC ETF on the market at 0.14% and bought 430 BTC on launch day.
The bank long Bitcoin is underweight the equity holding 35,303 of them.

[Xanny @Xanny555]

@TheOptionsPlug This is not even a chart of Mara , what’s the point of it?

[Xanny @Xanny555]

8/ Most analysts model $MARA as a Bitcoin miner pivoting to AI.

The real model: MARA is becoming what EDF is to French electricity, a global utility selling the same electron into the highest-bid compute use case at any moment.

The valuation framework for this doesn't exist yet.

[Xanny @Xanny555]

1/ The $MARA story 99% of analysts are missing:

Two people are quietly orchestrating the entire tenant pipeline before any of it goes public.

One is Fred Thiel. The other will surprise you.

A thread. 🧵

[Xanny @Xanny555]

7/ The market is waiting for "the big tenant headline"

The reality: tenants for the 3 anchor sites are likely already in late-stage discussions.
They just haven't been announced because the orchestration is still in motion (Long Ridge closing 2H 2026).