Most investors still see $MARA Marathon as a Bitcoin miner
The company now has a 2.2 GW power pipeline and exposure to the sovereign AI infrastructure market via Exaion
Power and AI sovereignty are becoming 2 of the most valuable assets in the world
Must watch for investors:
$MARA + Exaion on French national TV at Macron’s Choose France summit. Anthropic filing for French entry in the ticker crawl right above.
Coincidences?
In this market? 👀
At Choose France, President Macron's annual investment summit at Versailles, French national media turned to MARA and Exaion.
Hear from MARA CEO Fred Thiel (@fgthiel) and Exaion CEO Fatih Balyeli (@balyeli_fatih):
BTIG’s Gregory Lewis who covers oil tankers and power plants just put a $27 target on $MARA.
Lewis doesn’t price Bitcoin miners. He prices power assets.
Last time he made this call on a miner pivoting to compute:
$IREN — Buy → +675%
$CLSK — Buy → +372%
Same playbook. Same analyst. Same setup.
Now he’s looking at $MARA.
He sees Long Ridge a 505MW gas plant, $140M+ EBITDA and prices it for what it is:
not a miner, an energy-backed compute utility.
When the energy guy who called IREN at +675% lands on $MARA at $27…
the market’s still reading the old story.
Free optionality on every single AI deal.
Market handed this one out for free.
We must thank @MorganStanley analyst for pointing out the forgotten truth which is - $MARA bears need exactly one thing to be right:
Zero deals. Forever. Not one.
Good luck.
@TrooperTrading@MARA I was getting concerned that the AI deals for $MARA were getting priced in, but thankfully the Morgan Stanley analyst yesterday clarified that the market has completely discounted the possibility of any deals ever being signed
Rare to find a stock where big news is NOT priced in
Hi @grok I want hard predictions on $MARA. No hedging, no “it depends”.
Setup (May 2026):
(1) 1,900 MW operating, 19 data centers, 4 continents
(2) Long Ridge acquisition: 505 MW + $144M annualized EBITDA, closing H2 2026 (PJM grid, 1,600 acres in Ohio)
(3) Starwood JV: multi-GW AI infrastructure pipeline
(4) Exaion (64% of EDF subsidiary): French nuclear-powered HPC
(5) Q1 2026 earnings call: 90% of MARA’s owned sites in active tenant discussions
(5) Zero hyperscaler leases signed to date
(6) Morgan Stanley just cut PT to $7 (Underweight), valuing pipeline MWs at 10% probability of electrification
Three predictions. Commit to numbers:
1) Predict MARA’s next 3 concrete strategic moves over the next 12 months. Specific deals not “they’ll pursue diversification.” Name names. Give timelines.
2) For MARA’s first signed hyperscaler/AI lease, allocate probability across these tenants. Must total 100%:
•Microsoft / Azure ____%
•Google / Alphabet ____%
•AWS / Amazon ____%
•Meta ____%
•Oracle ____%
•xAI / Colossus ____%
•CoreWeave ____%
•Apple ____%
•Other (specify) ____%
3) Same allocation exercise, but specifically for the Long Ridge Ohio campus (505 MW, PJM, near hyperscaler-dense corridor).
Who gets those electrons?
Show your reasoning chain. Commit to the percentages. Don’t hide behind probability ranges.
Let's do the math the @MorganStanley analyst couldn't:
According to his own calculation:
$7 PT × 381.27M shares = $2.67B implied market cap.
What $MARA actually holds (per Q1 2026 SEC filing):
35,303 BTC ≈ $2.82B
Cash ≈ $80M
**Total liquid: $2.9B
Even gross of debt, Morgan Stanley's entire valuation is less than MARA's BTC stack alone.
After netting $2.3B in convertible debt (already reduced 30% via March buyback), MS still has to justify giving ZERO credit to:
*1,900 MW of operating power capacity
*19 data centers across 4 continents
*Exaion (64% of EDF subsidiary — French nuclear-powered HPC)
*Long Ridge ($1.5B acquisition adding 505 MW + $144M annualized EBITDA, closing H2 2026)
*Starwood JV (90% of MARA's owned sites in active tenant discussions per Q1 call)
Same Morgan Stanley values $CIFR operating + contracted MWs at ~$19M each.
$MARA's MWs at the $7 PT? ~$1.4M each.
~13x discount for the same physical electrons.
Different rationale: CIFR has signed hyperscaler leases. MARA hasn't yet.
Which brings us to MS's own admission.
Per MARA IR @RobSamuelsIR, quoting directly from the MS analyst's note today:
"We value pipeline MWs at a 10% chance of electrification until the partnership results in a deal."
90% written off. Before a single signature.
This is the same Morgan Stanley that told clients Bitcoin's intrinsic value could be $0 in 2017.
Today they run $MSBT the cheapest spot BTC ETF on the market at 0.14% and bought 430 BTC on launch day.
The bank long Bitcoin is underweight the equity holding 35,303 of them.
8/ Most analysts model $MARA as a Bitcoin miner pivoting to AI.
The real model: MARA is becoming what EDF is to French electricity, a global utility selling the same electron into the highest-bid compute use case at any moment.
The valuation framework for this doesn't exist yet.
1/ The $MARA story 99% of analysts are missing:
Two people are quietly orchestrating the entire tenant pipeline before any of it goes public.
One is Fred Thiel. The other will surprise you.
A thread. 🧵
7/ The market is waiting for "the big tenant headline"
The reality: tenants for the 3 anchor sites are likely already in late-stage discussions.
They just haven't been announced because the orchestration is still in motion (Long Ridge closing 2H 2026).