@buccocapital It's fucking bull shit how his net worth increased so much over the past 5 years, while tesla share price has been flat or so over the same time. So obvious he's neglected tesla shareholders for a long time - and what happened to loyalty deserves loyalty
While Musk said SpaceX can hit $1 trillion in revenue by 2030, I'd take it with a grain of salt considering what he said in the past:
July 23, 2024 (Tesla Q2 2024 Earnings Call): Musk said he believes unsupervised FSD (true robotaxi-level autonomy without supervision) could happen in 2024, and if not, he would be “surprised” if it doesn’t happen in 2025
January 2022: "I will be shocked if we don't achieve FSD safer than a human this year."
April 2019 (ARK Invest podcast): ".'d be shocked if not next year, at the latest that having the person... [human intervention will decrease safety]." (Referring to rapid progress toward safer-than-human autonomy.)
[ 용한 무속인이 말하는 꼬인 인생 푸는 방법 ]
1. 감사로 하루를 시작해라.
감사는 복을 부른다.
작은 것에도 감사를 느껴라.
2. 나쁜 말은 삼가라.
부정적인 말은 내 인생에 악영향을 미친다.
3. 눈앞의 욕심을 내려놔라.
욕심을 비울수록 좋은 기회와 큰 복이 찾아온다.
4. 인연을 소중히 여겨라.
지나가는 인연 하나하나가 내 삶의 귀한 열쇠다.
5. 작은 약속도 꼭 지켜라.
신뢰는 성공의 기본이다.
그러니 입으로 뱉은 말은 꼭 지켜라.
6. 항상 가족을 먼저 챙겨라.
가족을 챙길 때 인생의 기둥이 든든해진다.
7. 음식을 남기지 말아라.
음식도 복이다. 복을 소중히 여겨라.
8. 웃는 얼굴로 살아라.
웃음은 복을 끌어당기는 가장 쉬운 방법이다.
9. 작은 실패를 두려워하지 마라.
실패는 더 나은 길을 찾는 과정일 뿐이다.
10. 주변을 깨끗이 정리하라.
정리된 공간은 좋은 기운을 불러온다.
11. 쉬운 길을 택하지 마라.
쉬운 길은 늘 성장의 기회를 빼앗는다.
12. 과거에 집착하지 마라.
과거는 지나갔다. 오늘을 살아라.
13. 나�� 옳다는 생각을 버려라.
겸���은 인생의 기본이다.
14. 억지로 붙잡지 마라.
떠날 인연은 보내야 새 인연이 찾아온다.
15. 나쁜 습관 하나라도 고쳐라.
작은 변화가 큰 행운을 부른다.
16. 지금 할 수 있는 것부터 시작해라.
미루면 기회도 멀어진다.
17. 늘 자신을 믿어라.
내가 믿지 않으면 아무도 나를 돕지 않는다.
자신을 믿고 늘 당당히 살아가라.
18. 정직을 잃지 마라.
정직은 오래가고 결국 내게 이익이 된다.
19. 새로운 것을 배우는 데 겁먹지 마라.
배움은 삶을 풍요롭게 만든다.
20. 원망을 버려라.
원망은 내 기운을 가로막는 벽이다.
This is a long write-up but worth the read for Tesla investors who are interested in the prospect of a Tesla / SpaceX merger. @smdcapital@DanBTC916
As a former big law M&A attorney, I have been thinking about this potential transaction for many months now, trying to figure out how it would work, what the timing would be, mechanics, structure, etc.
With the recent decline in TSLA stock and negative sentiment following last week’s call, many Tesla bulls (I won’t name names) are now working overtime to convince followers that a near-term merger following SpaceX’s IPO is the right path forward. Indeed, Elon seemed to be dropping some hints with his commentary about Terafab, particularly the inherent conflicts and the difficulty in parsing out rights and responsibilities between each company.
And I do think Elon has had this thought in the back of his mind for the past few years, seeing the combination of his companies under a single structure as inevitable. I also think, through his actions and inactions (delays, missed deadlines, moving goal posts, divisiveness, politics, lack of enthusiasm on quarterly calls, etc.), he has kept the TSLA share price suppressed with that ultimate goal in mind. Occam’s razor.
So here are the mechanics. SpaceX is expected to IPO at a $1.75-$2.0T valuation. It will have a dual-class share structure, where Elon retains the voting shares.
Tesla has a single class share structure where each share has both voting and economic interests.
For a near-term merger to be viable, Elon has to ensure SpaceX maintains or exceeds its IPO valuation, and Tesla valuation stays at or below current levels.
Why? It is almost guaranteed that SpaceX would be the surviving entity in a merger scenario, so Elon can maintain the dual-class share structure and thus, maintain majority voting control. It is not legally possible to implement this type of structure at Tesla post-IPO, so the only way to keep it is if SpaceX is the surviving entity. And in order to convince Tesla shareholders to give up their voting rights in exchange for non-voting, economic shares in SpaceX (which is how such deals are commonly structured), SpaceX will have to offer a premium to Tesla holders — precedent is in the range of 20-40%.
If Tesla is trading at a similar valuation to SpaceX, e.g., $2.0 trillion, and SpaceX has to pay a 20-40% premium to entice Tesla shareholders to approve the deal and give up their voting rights, then SpaceX shareholders would be diluted and are less likely to approve the transaction.
If SpaceX is trading at $2.0 trillion and TSLA at its current $1.4 trillion market cap ($375/share), SpaceX can offer a 40% premium ($2.0 trillion valuation, $525/share, top-end of precedent) and avoid dilution. TSLA shareholders would almost certainly approve such an offer in light of current sentiment and Elon’s recent guidance (or lack thereof).
Keeping the TSLA share price suppressed is the only way any near-term merger is viable in my opinion.
I understand why Elon wants to combine the companies. It would significantly simplify governance and streamline his workload. And I ultimately think a combination of the two companies in the future makes sense.
But the reality is, we have waited patiently for years now (with the stock trading lower today than it traded 5 years ago!), and we are finally on the cusp of a significant re-rating once robotaxi is scaled and Optimus goes into volume production. As a Tesla shareholder, I would prefer to consider a merger with SpaceX after the re-rating, when Tesla is trading at a much higher valuation. Why give it up now in the 11th hour when we’ve waited this long already?
At the end of the day, what’s good for Elon isn’t necessarily good for Tesla shareholders.
"The biggest risk is not taking any risk… In a world that is changing really quickly, the only strategy that is guaranteed to fail is not taking risks."
— Mark Zuckerberg