Lucas

En quête de liberté
Bullish on $SIVE $AAOI $AXTI $BTC $MRVL

[Lucas @Xstockfr]

C'est quand que le ฿ passe la barre des 10K

[The White House @WhiteHouse]

Please let this be a normal field trip...

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Lot of people were wondering about $SIVE earnings in 2 days.

What I'm watching out for:

1. I'm hoping for more visibility on photonics co-development/qualifications/contracts.

-> $AAOI stated multiple customers approaching them for CPO lasers (but had to turn them away)
-> $MTSI stated many customers approaching them for CW capacity (but doesn't come online until H2 2027)

So read through for a company serving as $GFS reference laser, $JBL for pluggables (ex. intel siph), to Ayar for CPO.

And in a merchant position:
-> with independent CW DFB supply (with Win semi)
-> CPO-grade lasers.

Is incredibly positive for more customers approaching Sivers.

2. Ongoing developments turning into volume

-> I'm most excited about $JBL, which would probably be the main revenue ramp in H1 2027.
-> $AEVA is likely much smaller in comparison, but should be a contributor H2 2026.
-> Ayar and optical I/O players already stated 2028 for HVM, so not really expecting much there.
-> Co-developments from their other pluggable players (from last ER) turning into qualifications -> volume).

Aside from that:

3. NASDAQ listing

-> We already got timelines for that "next few quarters", so it's not really a focus to narrow that down further. Always nice to get an update.

4. Financials

-> Again, current financials aren't a focus for qualification-cycle players. Just a heads up, there's some one-time accounting this quarter, which affects things optically.

Main thing is volume ramps for future quarters.

-> revenue pipeline increase
-> any early volume contracts signed

Balance sheet concerns should be cleared now given their recent $70m fundraising + bootstrap dilution overhang gone.

Bonus cookies:
-> Any information about allocations secured "eg. we have substantial CW capacity secured -> would be extremely high signal given current shortages.

-> Reiterate demand that AOI, Macom, Lumentum, Coherent stated. "eg. any capacity we get would be filled from demand"

$AAOI had their massive $30 -> $220 rally after they stated like $471M expected capacity in 2027, and reiterated that into revenue guidance. (but then had a lot of ATMs)

An ambitious bull case + full capacity revenue statement for future timelines like H1 2028 for Sivers would be nice, but not expected.

A further re-rating would help for M&A with a Cloud Light type acquisition for revenue acceleration in future earnings.

Obviously Sivers has other volume ramps, but I think photonics is what the market is primarily underwriting.

Regardless, excited for what's up and coming.

[Gublo🇨🇦 @Gubloinvestor]

i am lucky to buy at Bottom today.

Bull-run Confirmed ✅

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Good question, it's mainly third party commentary + actions around $SIVE.

Ayar probably speaks volumes to me most removing $LITE / $MTSI from their supply chain section of their site. Then just featuring Sivers by itself for the laser suppliers.

VP at Ayar also said Sivers was ... "essential to powering our optical I/O solution", which is pretty high signal commentary.

Then you have $JBL that built a 1.6T LRO after selecting Sivers, which is very rare. And bragged about their technological moat at one of the fireside chats.

Then $GFS choosing Sivers as the reference laser too and featuring them in their presentations...

Feels like all your leading players are moving forward with Sivers for some reason? And I'd assume these leading companies did their DD

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

@adiradir734145 I think markets just need to let the masterchef $SIVE cook.

From other earnings, everyone seems to be going out and approaching players like $MTSI or $AAOI for agreements.

So, seems like there's a decently high chance Sivers gets some new qualifications or co-developments.

[Alexis Poulin @Poulin2012]

L’aventure s’arrête ici.

[Memory @MemoryOffline]

Call of Duty 2 (2005)

[Michael Rigoni @michael_rigoni]

I’m adding heavily to my $SIVE position today

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Lot of misinterpretations flying left and right around the $600m ATM. I'm still bullish on $AAOI and I have large positions (which is why I care more).

What I've been consistent with is not being a fan of overusing ATMs/dilution for financing. I've said this before with $IREN + $POET.

And I'll be consistent with my own positions like AOI.

However, the reason I'm still overweight on AOI vs. the rest (looking at you Poet):

Is that AOI is actually capacity constrained with high demand visibility.

In terms of timing:

- AOI should have waited until completion of 1.6T qualifications (expected in the next few weeks)

- Could have used other structures like convertible notes above market prices.

But they did it on the drop from $220 -> $130, and it's likely there will be short term structural overhang whenever they want to tap into it.

I don't have to support every single business decision to remain long.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Having a mid-X identity crisis rn:

✓ saw 2025 ideas from $AXTI to $NBIS play out with everyone
✓ we got $AMD bandanas
✓ #1 most subscribed person on X by accident
✓ Chinese “White Hair” nicknames
✓ 1M followers

Still here to track ideas, but what’s the next side quest?

[Jean MESSIHA @JeanMessiha]

⚠️🔥 Les Suisses publient les statistiques qui dérangent : 80% des demandeurs d’asile maghrébins ont eu des problèmes avec la justice.

On est loin du réfugié politique et de l’ingénieur…

https://t.co/kccMX3brtK

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Apparently, $RDDT thinks $MRVL had two major catalysts recently:

The $12.2B Google TPU ecosystem agreement.

And…

Spider-Man: “Brand New Day”

[Anders Storm @StormDirac]

AXT is the pure play substrate InP bottleneck story.

The business itself has delivered a genuinely stunning Q2, with record revenue of $47.6 million, up 164% year-over-year, gross margin more than doubling to 45%, and indium phosphide revenue alone hitting a record $30.7 million. Needham upgraded the stock to Buy. Management now guides for InP revenue to triple by the end of this year and reach $130 million a quarter by the end of 2027. Yet, stock is down 50% from ATH this year.

Also AXT is based in California, but AXT's actual manufacturing happens through a subsidiary in Beijing. How shall we look at that risk?

It's time to look at AXT and release the deep dive of the second largest holding in the $LAZR ETF.

https://t.co/rIA1QNMEWX

[Watcher.Guru @WatcherGuru]

FUN FACT: 10 years ago today, Bitcoin was $586

[Lucas @Xstockfr]

@Mr_Derivatives $SIVE jeudi 27 août

[Anders Storm @StormDirac]

I am currently write the second part about the $LAZR ETF. Which will be about the current no 2., in the @TemaETFs LAZR ETF. $AXTI. Meanwhile below is Tema ETFs recent post about the subject.

[Oliver | MMMT Wealth (CPA) @MMMTwealth]

Here's how I model $AAOI post the $600M ATM offering AH on a Friday...:

1. Revenue: Still fair to assume $5.6B in FY28 revenue (probably slightly conservative excluding ELSFP contribution).

I've been over these numbers a lot.

2. Margins: 22% non-GAAP net margins is a solid base case for 2028.

At $5.6B revenue scale, we should see operating leverage expansion.

We see $LITE guiding towards 36%, Innolight ~31%, and Eoptolink ~37%.

22% is also currently in line with analyst estimates (who have so far been conservative on the $AAOI numbers but best to take a more conservative approach here).

3. Dilution: Current baseline is 84.6M

If full $600M is used here's the likely share count looking forward:

-> $125 = 4.7 - 4.8 million shares
-> $112 (after hours) = 5.25 - 5.4 million shares

Likely looking to be upwards of 90M shares in Q3 which is (so far) in line with Q3 guidance which I calculate to be ~92.8 million shares.

Looking into 2027-2028 management will be using more of a mix of:

-> Existing cash
-> Operating cash flow
-> Additional ATMs
-> Debt

2027 will likely be normal equity compensation + ATMs + cash. I anticipate we close 2027 ~105 million shares.

By 2028 most of the major dilution phase should be largely complete if mid-2027 targets are met.

2028 estimate =110 - 114 million shares.

4. Share price:

$5.6B * 22% -> $1.23B

$1.23B / 110 million shares -> 11.18x

30x EPS multiple -> $336 (200% gain)
40x EPS multiple (current $LITE multiple) -> $448 (300% gain)

I know this ATM offering isn't bullish...but I don't know what people expected?

Management have been clear from the offset that equity raises were in the pipeline.

The timing is admittedly shady AH on a Friday and post Rosenblatt. We can't get around that.

But so far, this isn't thesis breaking in anyway for me like I'm seeing all over my timeline.

[Anders Storm @StormDirac]

Important reporting week coming up next week, 2 days will have extra high focus for me Aug 26 and 27.

Nvidia $NVDA — Aug 26, after close. My expectations: just above guidance.

Marvell $MRVL — Aug 27, after close. My expectations: Beat guidance.

Sivers Semiconductors $SIVE — Aug 27, ~6:00 PM CET, webcast at 7:00 PM CET. My expectations: Slow report has already been announced in PR. However, expectations are high on information about customer development.

Also interesting to see if my predictions come true about SmartEye $SEYE - expecting a fantastic Q2, where Automotive sales are up more than 200% YoY. - Aug 26 before open. Read substack here: https://t.co/3M478hSD43

In $LAZR portfolio Semtech $SMTC report on Aug 25, after close.

[Con @__Con_]

People are playing AI stocks so wrong.

AI beneficiaries are about to resistance while AI enablers are about to hit support, yet people are selling AI enablers and buying the beneficiaries.

This is the wrong choice. Look:

On the short term, I think the rotation from stocks that benefit off AI getting better -> towards stocks that enable the AI buildout, is about to happen.

People are chasing the whole "Biotech" and "AI aids companies" trade, which is true.

But, it's getting overhyped here.

While, nobody is talking about the stocks that are enabling that benefit anymore.

I only hear of people shorting them here.

So, this is a trade I'm willing to take:

Sell $ZETA, $TEAM, $RDDT, $NOW on the short term.

Buy $AAOI, $MU, $NBIS, $SIVE on the short term.

*I'm still bullish AI enablers and AI beneficiaries on the long term (my position remains the same), both will be great. Short term, however, we must play our cards right...

[Lucas @Xstockfr]

La semaine à -6k€ en bourse 😕