Wen

JD @OsgoodeNews | BSc (Hons) First Class @NottmUniBschool | Views are my own.

[Dan Niles @DanielTNiles]

Given a couple of my friends misunderstood my short tweet yesterday, let me clarify. My post on Hynix was to acknowledge a datapoint for those calling THE TOP of the AI cycle.

I believe it is important as an investor to not just focus on what is supportive of your investment case but even more so to focus on what is directly against it, especially if it is a universally acknowledged loved idea like AI.

Having said that, let me be clear. I still strongly believe this is a “speedbump” which is what I have been writing about since my original post on June 20th.

But a “speedbump” can be ugly as I have pointed out before. Starting in both late 1995 and 1997 there were drawdowns of over 50% in the semiconductor index. But the semi index finished up roughly 850% from the end of 1994 to the peak of the internet buildout in March of 2000 despite this.

Also back then, those drawdowns had fundamental drivers. In 1995, Windows 95 did not lead to the upgrade cycle expected and companies were sitting on a bunch of DRAM inventory. Intel wrote off about $1B in DRAM inventory as an example. There is no excess memory inventories on balance sheets today.

In 1997, the Asian currency crisis forced a slowdown in end-demand. The Iran war and continuation of the Ukraine conflict are both disruptive but there is no general slowdown in demand being caused by them that I can see.

From a technical standpoint, I believe forced liquidations and margin calls in both retail accounts and hedge funds that typically run with leverage over the past couple of weeks is leading to a technical bottom.

From June 22nd, the peak of the momentum trade, the S&P is down only 2.1% and the Nasdaq is down 6.6%. But the SOX index (the tip of the spear in the AI trade) is down 28.6%, the Morgan Stanley Momentum Index is down 38.0% and their Momentum TMT (tech, media and telecom) Index is down 53.5%. The ferocity of these moves in roughly one month has never been seen before in some cases. I believe this has sped up the cleansing process with prime brokers not wanting another Archegos situation.

From a fundamental standpoint, the advent of Agentic AI started arguably at the end of January 30th with the formalization of OpenClaw. This requires 10-100x more tokens than chat-based AI. No question that token minimization is going on at the top 1% of companies which was the main reason for my speedbump concerns but the other 99% are still ramping.

In summary, my view is that we could have seen at least a short-term bottom today with a strong rally ahead of us in the sectors most caught in the latest speedbump. Time as always will tell.

[Robinhood @RobinhoodApp]

We're officially north of the border. 🇨🇦

Robinhood is now live in Canada with zero trading fees for a limited time for fully onboarded clients on the Robinhood app.

https://t.co/klNh8iHFPd

[Anthropic @AnthropicAI]

The US government, citing national security authorities, has issued an export control directive to suspend all access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5 by any foreign national, whether inside or outside the United States, including foreign national Anthropic employees.

The net effect of this order is that we must abruptly disable Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for all our customers to ensure compliance.

Access to all other Claude models is not affected.

We apologize for this disruption to our customers. We believe this is a misunderstanding and are working to restore access as soon as possible.

Read our full statement: https://t.co/bwn0sximKZ

[Anthropic @AnthropicAI]

Anthropic has confidentially submitted a draft S-1 registration statement to the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Pending completion of SEC review, this gives us the option to pursue an initial public offering.

Read more: https://t.co/onGZAhRLvD

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

It's official.

SpaceX is going straight to retail investors.

"Certain of the shares of Class A common stock offered hereby will, at our request, be offered to retail investors," SpaceX says in their S-1 filing today.

These shares will be available through Charles Schwab, Fidelity, Robinhood, SoFi Securities, and ETRADE.

Retail will have a huge role in this historic IPO.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: SpaceX has officially filed its S-1 registration statement with the US SEC ahead of its record-setting IPO.

Details include:

1. SpaceX intends to list its shares on the Nasdaq under ticker symbol $SPCX

2. SpaceX posted Q1 2026 revenue of $4.69 billion

3. Elon Musk will be CEO, CTO, and Chairman of the Board after the IPO

4. SpaceX holds $15.8 billion in cash as of March 31st

5. SpaceX is seeking to raise a record $80 billion in its IPO with an expected IPO date of June 12th

More details to come shortly on this historic IPO.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Key Events This Week:

1. April Existing Home Sales data - Monday

2. April CPI Inflation data - Tuesday

3. April PPI Inflation data - Wednesday

4. OPEC Monthly Report - Wednesday

5. April Retail Sales data - Thursday

6. April Industrial Production data - Friday

More crucial inflation data is ahead of us.

[Wealthsimple @Wealthsimple]

You asked. We listened.

$STRC is now live on Wealthsimple. Trade it for $0 today.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Key Events This Week:

1. March JOLTS Job Openings data - Tuesday

2. April ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI data - Tuesday

3. April ADP Nonfarm Employment data - Wednesday

4. April Jobs Report - Friday

5. Total of 11 Fed speaker events this week

6. ~20% of S&P 500 companies report earnings

The labor market is in the spotlight.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Key Events This Week:

1. US Markets React to Cancellation of US-Iran Talks - 6 PM ET Today

2. April Consumer Confidence data - Tuesday

3. April Fed Interest Rate Decision and Statement - Wednesday

4. Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, Google Report Earnings - Wednesday

5. Apple Reports Earnings - Thursday

6. US Q1 2026 GDP Data - Thursday

7. March PCE Inflation data - Thursday

8. ~20% of S&P 500 companies report earnings this week

Buckle up for a highly eventful week ahead.

[Coinbase Institutional 🛡️ @CoinbaseInsto]

Bitcoin’s rally may be stronger than it looks, not just driven by leverage, but by real demand amidst tightening supply.

Key Takeaways:

• Rising ETF inflows are near their highest levels this year, signaling stronger institutional demand

• Accumulation by long-term holders is concentrating supply into “strong hands”

• Short liquidations helped spark the move, but similar squeezes have historically triggered broader bull trends • Sustained rallies tend to be more durable when supported by spot demand, not just leverage

• Key level: ~$80K short-term holder cost basis - reclaiming this level could confirm a stronger trend, while rejection may signal continued weakness

Institutional demand and tightening supply dynamics point to a more durable market structure forming.

Can $BTC break $80 K and turn this into a sustained trend?

[CoinDesk @CoinDesk]

JUST IN: @kucoincom launches direct crypto payments via @Mastercard in Australia, allowing users to spend $USDC across Mastercard's global merchant network with real-time conversion at point of sale.

[Brian Armstrong @brian_armstrong]

Stablecoins are the best form of money; they're coming to the UK.

[CNBC @CNBC]

TOMORROW: President Donald Trump will speak with CNBC’s Joe Kernen tomorrow at 8:30 a.m. ET on “Squawk Box.” Tune in!

[Coinbase Institutional 🛡️ @CoinbaseInsto]

Strategy’s BTC buying matters more than you think

Key Insights:

• Strategy’s most direct role is reducing liquid float by acting as a persistent holder.

• Within the last two years, the share of BTC supply held by digital asset treasuries has quadrupled to above 4%.

• That supply-tightening effect may matter more if BTC is also moving into stronger hands as long-term holder supply rises and coins leave exchanges.

• Strategy’s buying is likely to matter more when it helps facilitate a breakout at a key technical level, after which breakout traders, systematic funds, and momentum-driven bots can reinforce the move.

• Price impact may be limited if the buying is anticipated, executed carefully, or overwhelmed by ETF flows, miner supply, derivatives hedging, liquidation flows, or macro risk appetite.

Do you think DAT buying matters more by squeezing supply or by facilitating breakouts at key price levels?

[Wealthsimple @Wealthsimple]

https://t.co/BTTfM00KZ2

[Michael Saylor @saylor]

Strategy is proposing to pay semi-monthly dividends on $STRC, instead of monthly. No change to the annual dividend obligations or dividend rate. These proposed changes are intended to stabilize price, dampen cyclicality, drive liquidity, and grow demand.

[WSJ Markets @WSJmarkets]

NYSE, the biggest and oldest U.S. stock exchange, has placed its bets that digital assets are part of its future https://t.co/1z7OK3VsiY

[Charles Schwab Corp @CharlesSchwab]

Schwab Crypto™ is on the way. Schwab Crypto accounts (offered by Charles Schwab Premier Bank, SSB) will provide direct access to Bitcoin and Ethereum trading, in-depth digital assets education, and more. Read the full press release: https://t.co/OboCPUGAAa

[Financial Services GOP @FinancialCmte]

Earlier this week, the FDIC released its proposal to implement the GENIUS Act. As it is implemented, the GENIUS Act will position the United States as the global leader in digital asset innovation while reinforcing the strength of the U.S. dollar.