Strongly condemn the ghastly terrorist attack carried out today at Bondi Beach, Australia, targeting people celebrating the first day of the Jewish festival of Hanukkah. On behalf of the people of India, I extend my sincere condolences to the families who lost their loved ones. We stand in solidarity with the people of Australia in this hour of grief. India has zero tolerance towards terrorism and supports the fight against all forms and manifestations of terrorism.
Concluding thoughts
India demonstrated both its offensive and defensive capabilities during the four-day aerial engagement with Pakistan. On May 7, India hit deep inside Pakistan, including its heartland Punjab. It has sought to establish a new normal between the two countries--one where India responds to sub-conventional warfare with conventional military force. Pakistan's defences seemed porous, on May 7 and the morning of May 10th, when India launched significant attacks. Satellite imagery supports India's claims of hitting Pakistan's strategic sites, including the Nur Khan airbase in Rawalpindi, near Islamabad. So far, I haven’t not seen any credible evidence substantiating Pakistan's claims of having inflicted serious damage on India's strategic locations.
But there are still unanswered questions. This time, Pakistan, under Gen Munir, was prepared for India’s attacks. When India carried out the first strike, in response to the Pahalgam massacre, it had also offered an offramp. India said it had hit only terror infrastructure, not Pakistan's military facilities, and signalled that it did not want to escalate the situation. But Pakistan chose to widen the conflict by intensifying cross-border shelling and launching drones across the border (It's not difficult to understand the reason. If India wanted to set a new normal, Pakistan wanted to restore the status quo). What was interesting was that on May 8 and 9, Pakistan continued to deny that it was launching drones (it means Pakistan was preparing for its retaliation). And it launched its publicly acknowledged counterattack on May 10. Later in the day, Pakistan's DGMO reached out to India and both sides agreed to pull back from the brink, for now.
So the question is what led to the ceasefire. We know that JD Vance talked to Modi on May 9. Marco Rubio was in touch with both India and Pakistan. So were the Saudis. According to American media, the US stepped in after it got 'alarming intel'. What was the alarming intel? Trump said on May 12 that his government stopped “a nuclear war” between India and Pakistan. So the alarming intel was a Pakistani threat of nuclear attack? Or, as both sides started firing missiles into each other, did the Americans sense a dramatic escalation (which could spiral out of control and go nuclear) and decide to step in? We don't know. I don't buy into the theory that India hit Pakistan's nuclear storage facility which triggered the chain of events leading to the ceasefire--as there is no evidence to suggest this is credible.
So why did India accept the ceasefire, after Pakistan launched a massive missile and drone attack? Did we do that because of nuclear threats? The Prime Minister said on May 12 that India would not bend to nuclear blackmail. If one takes him seriously, there was only one explanation left. Pressure from Uncle Sam. If that is the case, Pakistan can send more gunmen across the border a few months, or years, down the line to kill more Indians, testing India's new doctrine and resolve. And if India responds militarily, Pakistan’s nuclear sabre rattling could bring in the Americans again. This will be a circular exercise without strategic results.
One area where India could really have done better was in messaging. The Indians would not be happy that it was Trump who announced the ceasefire. Pakistan quickly thanked Trump ‘for brokering the ceasefire’, fully aware that it would make India's position more difficult. What was particularly damaging was Trump's tweet on May 11th, in which he took credit for the ceasefire, re-hyphenated India and Pakistan, created a false equivalence between the two countries (despite Pakistan’s long ties with terror groups, including al-Qaeda) and offered third party mediation--all against India's standard, historical, national position on Pakistan–it took two days for India to respond to Trump’s remarks. Even domestically India could have done better in messaging. While Pakistanis were celebrating what they portrayed as "victory", despite suffering strikes on more than two dozen locations–in India, trolls were viciously attacking the diplomat who announced the ceasefire, and his family.
Inaugurated Vantara, a unique wildlife conservation, rescue and rehabilitation initiative, which provides a safe haven for animals while promoting ecological sustainability and wildlife welfare. I commend Anant Ambani and his entire team for this very compassionate effort.
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