Stanly Johny

Foreign Editor @the_hindu. Author: Original Sin; The Comrades & The Mullahs; & The ISIS Caliphate. Visiting Professor at KREA University

[Stanly Johny @johnstanly]

Happy to announce my new book, Original Sin: Israel, Palestine and the Revenge of Old West Asia.

Will release the book on December 15 at the Bangalore Lit Fest, with @HarperCollinsIN.
You can preorder it here: https://t.co/iIBX2EckRo

[The Hindu @the_hindu]

#Podcast | U.S. President Donald Trump has signalled that he is not looking to escalate militarily against Iran, but says the American naval and land blockade will continue. Meanwhile, tensions over the Strait of Hormuz persist, domestic political pressures are mounting in Washington, and Israel faces questions over its political future and the direction of its Iran policy. Is this the beginning of the end of the war, or a prolonged no-war, no-peace situation?

In this episode, we discuss the latest developments and what lies ahead for Iran, Israel, and the United States.

Guest: @johnstanly
Host: @sharmada_v
Camera: Shivaraj S

https://t.co/GhlJvS8SqQ

[Stanly Johny @johnstanly]

Global Faultlines: In #Israel, netanyahu has lost his governing majority. In the US, trump has suffered a massive electoral setback in the midterms. What do these results mean for the war on #Iran? trump has already signalled a step-back, but Iran stands firm with its demands; the status quo is unsustainable. Watch our latest episode:

https://t.co/mHr7GdFg7W

[Stanly Johny @johnstanly]

Global Faultlines: Is trump’s war on Iran over ? https://t.co/MA7b25md47

[Stanly Johny @johnstanly]

Is trump’s no-war, no-peace approach sustainable? #Iran From Global Faultlines

[Stanly Johny @johnstanly]

@KshitijRajoriy1 Have written too many long articles :)

[Stanly Johny @johnstanly]

It's been more than eight months since trump and netanyahu launched their war on Iran--a war which trump thought would be over within days. Where does it stand today?

America has not managed to achieve any of its declared objectives;
All of its military bases in the Persian Gulf are either destroyed or critically damaged;
The Strait of Hormuz remains under Iran’s control. Though the US has managed to open a southern waterway, it’s not sustainable even in the medium term;
Iran got hit for 40 days but the Iranian state has survived and the IRGC is now in the driving seat;
More important, Iran’s nuclear programme, which was the most important declared reason for the war, remains out of the purview of talks.

At home, the war has hit trump real bad as his party faced a rout in the midterm. His own Vice President distanced from the administration's policy and blamed the war on Iran as the key reason for the Republican losses. There is a revolt brewing in the MAGA base against the continuation of the war. So trump, who had threatened to annihilate Iran at the UN a few weeks ago, has taken another U-turn. He now says the war is effectively over, but the blockade would remain in place, while Qatar is continuing talks between the two sides. In the meantime, Vance has sent a letter to Mohsen Rezaei to kickstart talks.

This war is a bigger disaster for the US than even the war on Iraq. America cannot defeat Iran militarily. And it doesn’t have a diplomatic wayout either. If it keeps the blockade in place, Iran will try to break the blockade, escalating the crisis, dragging the U.S. back into the war. If the U.S. abandons the blockade and walks away, the Persian Gulf, as I wrote earlier here, would turn out to be an Iranian lake with the Strait of Hormuz remaining under Iran’s control. You can start a war at will. But to end it, unless you have taken a decisive victory, the other side will also have a say.

[Stanly Johny @johnstanly]

Global Faultlines: trump signals retreat; Israel in dilemma; Iran holds firm
https://t.co/yDjS2WFMPP

[Stanly Johny @johnstanly]

Global Faultlines: In #Israel, netanyahu has lost his governing majority. In the US, trump has suffered a massive electoral setback in the midterms. What do these results mean for the war on #Iran? trump has already signalled a step-back, but Iran stands firm with its demands; the status quo is unsustainable. Watch our latest episode:

https://t.co/mHr7GdFg7W

[Stanly Johny @johnstanly]

An Asian rejection of unilateralism--writing from Seoul   - The latest View from India newsletter.

https://t.co/FAVMi7X3nA

[Stanly Johny @johnstanly]

@samaraliwarsi Along the coast of Oman, which tankers use to get the oil out of the strait.

[Stanly Johny @johnstanly]

IMF says economic growth across the GCC will fall by 5% this year, thanks to the trump-bibi war on Iran. Kuwait, Bahrain and Qatar could see double-digit contractions. Saudi Arabia's economy shrank 3.8% year on year during July September. The only GCC economy that is expected to grow this year is Oman, which is not dependent on the Strait of Hormuz.

[Stanly Johny @johnstanly]

@vishnuanil_ Yes the original plan was to topple Saddam and use Iraq as a base to move on to Iran. But the Americans got stuck in Iraq. Now, they are out of both Iraq and Afghanistan.

[Stanly Johny @johnstanly]

An Asian rejection of unilateralism--writing from Seoul   - The latest View from India newsletter.

https://t.co/FAVMi7X3nA

[Stanly Johny @johnstanly]

You lost the war

[Mark R. Levin @marklevinshow]

It is reported that Qatar wants us to give $8 billion to Iran as an opening amount to get them to talk.  That would be more than twice what Israel receives over a 2-year period, the vast majority of which never leaves our defense contractors.  And Iran has killed and maimed thousands of our people.  

Make sense?

[Stanly Johny @johnstanly]

The Great Walk Away plan.

[Stanly Johny @johnstanly]

Will be in Pune on Nov 12 to attend the Sakal Lit Fest where the Marathi translation of my book, #OriginalSin, will also be launched. Do come if you are in town.

[Stanly Johny @johnstanly]

The View from India: What's next for Israel after elections? https://t.co/wBczAgBTWR

[Stanly Johny @johnstanly]

Elections in Israel and Israeli-India ties. From The View from India.

[Stanly Johny @johnstanly]

Brand #Netanyahu is declining in #Israel but it's too early to write him off entirely-- in the latest episode of The View from India, we discuss the Israeli elections and what do the results mean for Netanyahu, Eisdenkot and the Jewish state. Watch here:

https://t.co/8MyDosimn6

[Stanly Johny @johnstanly]

@AmbTrigunayat Exactly sir. You know better.

[Stanly Johny @johnstanly]

While #Israel is clearly seeking to build greater influence in #India, India is not going to be what America is for Israel. True, there are sections in India’s strategic and media community who believe strong relations with Israel, irrespective of the latter’s militarism (which in turn affects India’s interests) are good for the country. But India is not going to fight Israel’s war like America does. India is not going to provide diplomatic protection to Israel like America does. India is not going to be an ally of the state of Israel. So a much more practical possibility is Israel, post-Netanyahu, doing some course correction and seeking to repair and rebuild its broken image in the West and relations with western governments.

[Dissident Right @Patriot_Clips]

🚨 Tucker Carlson says Israel is moving on from America.

"Israel is moving on from the United States, at some point probably sooner rather than later, to India. And so weakening the United States in a war with Iran is not all bad."