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I'm about to use the F word hide yo kids
ETH ETF inflows have flippened BTC inflows every day for the past 5 days
Remarkable given ETH is one fourth the size
Price is the ad.
Time is the judge.
Volume is the vote.
1. Price is an advertising mechanism.
price = invitation, not an agreement.
with this framework in mind, price goes up to advertise to sellers and goes down to advertise to buyers - an exploration process to confirm value.
2. Time regulates all advertised opportunities.
Opportunity decay- over time setup loses edge + anomalies are relevant over a certain period of time after which they become less important.
3. Volume determines the success or failure of these advertised opportunities.
As discussed earlier price is an advertisement, volume is the type and nature of participation at this advertisement.
Increased participation with aggressive conviction on a breakout/breakdown = acceptance.
Lack thereof = failed auction.
I think broadly this aligns with my idea that crypto retail participation topped in 2021. And we are now in a game of attrition until all the retail fish leave from boredom, or from going broke. Over time, these retail fish get replaced by more and more sophisticated actors.
The retail fish move over to the next potential decade-long speculative bubble (maybe AI??).
They will come back for a month or two during alt szn every year and buy some tops.
The only way this changes is if the Fed goes back to a zero-rate environment, which I don’t see happening for the next two decades.
I think what became consensus on CT circles back in 2024 (Bitcoin is the only viable investment vehicle) is now proliferating through wider retail circles.
When everyone knows it’s all a scam, what are the second-order effects?
Would overlay with the 2017 fractal, which was the complete opposite—where everyone thought crypto was the future.
I also think people tend to underwrite the effects of a zero-money environment on innovation. I think cheap money is probably the biggest driver of tech innovation over the past two decades. And without it, you're less likely to see interesting things pop up in crypto.
It's no coincidence that crypto stopped making interesting shit once the Fed started raising rates.
Biggest fundamental/innovative coin over the past year is a decentralized exchange—and part of the reason was buybacks.
This is not how speculation works in bubble environments.
Understand how distorted time is during sell offs.
When the market is facing price action like it currently is, everyone is zoomed in, it's natural.
It will also feel like multiple days pass when in reality it's only a small amount of time.
You then need to understand the impact on your trading and decision making.
The age-old advice of patience is easy to meme but it's one of the most significant and important skills to learn. We're facing incredibly strong selling on crypto, and the thought process must be in appreciation of the way that price action like this plays out.
1. The market is downtrending - always expect lower prices.
2. When the market stops the aggression the most likely period of time is consolidation/chop.
3. When the consolidation/chop ends the most likely outcome is continuation of the trend.
4. If a reversal is present then you can begin building into that.
When you're looking at price destruction like we've witnessed, no one can tell you when is a good time to buy, you need to determine what your time horizons for investment are and whether you think the current prices represent value in comparison to that.
Trying to time bottoms in downtrends is almost impossible, even more impossible to hold through to a reversal and likely leads to bleeding out of portfolios through continued interaction against the tide of the market.
Let things play out, don't panic into positions just because you get a 5m bounce. Don't rush to position because a Daily or Weekly turned green.
We're potentially months away from this market reversing and turning around to anything meaningful. Pre-occupation with the lower timeframes will distort this view so much and lead you to overtrade and to spend too much time on positions that are against the natural trend of the market.
It's time to zoom out, manage your psychology and keep that balanced wider field of view when it comes to market dynamics and the way that things tend to play out.
Long post regarding Coinbase current position and $COIN price. The current situation mirrors a bit the $COIN dump post-FTX collapse where Wall Street sold aggressively but I viewed as a very bullish thing given the elimination of a major U.S. competitor (and I bought accordingly at that time).
I see many retail investors / CT posts shocked by Wall Street's sell-off post a HUGE Q4 for $COIN. You should not be. The Street still views Coinbase as merely a trading platform, thinking Q4 is a "Trump pump." Once Wall Street reevaluates Coinbase as the backbone of the next major tech revolution after AI, the bullish move will be epic.
Many streams of revenue are unlocking under the new administration imo. Few key examples that I see:
Staking will expand significantly: previously, regulatory hurdles in the U.S. hindered Coinbase's market share. With clarity, major players will stake their $ETH and $SOL with Coinbase, the MOST secure option by far.
Stablecoins: The primary reason $USDC not passing $USDT in market cap has been regulatory ambiguity. Once resolved, $USDC is would take the lead big way.
Preps: Most trading in crypto is done by preps / futures. The only reason Binance's market share in trading is higher than Coinbase is US restrictions on preps / derivatives. It may change soon imo. This will be very big.
International expansion: Coinbase actively operating in key financial hubs like Singapore and London and others, engaging with local authorities to secure necessary approvals. Coinbase is becoming THE global REGULATED leader in the space while Binance and others struggling.
Now add to this the future revenue stream from ONCHAIN activity. As blockchain technology becomes ubiquitous, Coinbase will provide the infrastructure for this activity: wallets, developer platforms, AI bots, payments and much more. Think AWS in its early days. Don’t be surprised if major companies like Stripe or even Google use Coinbase for infrastructure more and more.
In this context, competition is significantly diminished. Platforms like Robinhood offer trading, but that's their limit. Transitioning on-chain, Coinbase is MILES AHEAD, especially with FTX's demise and Binance's regulatory challenges in key financial hubs like US / London / Singapore.
The market’s current undervaluation of $COIN will correct at some point. With the latest Adj. EBITDA, $COIN looks extremely cheap.
When you make compute cheaper do people buy more?
Yes. It's called Jevons Paradox and it's a big part of our business thesis.
In the 1860s, an Englishman wrote a treatise on coal where he noted that every time steam engines got more efficient people bought more coal.
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