Yelling About Elections

An independent, objective(ish) look at the UK political system, explaining how Parliament works and tracking why people vote the way they do. Me @joeldelusional

[Yelling About Elections @YellElections]

No, the King still can’t intervene

[Yelling About Elections @YellElections]

I think the “where’s the Sue Gray report” people were one of the main reasons for my disillusionment with politics Twitter. Because if you can just deny a major news story happened, out of sheer ignorance, and get thousands of likes, what’s the point in anything factual?

[Yelling About Elections @YellElections]

I’m parking the blog for a little while. I don’t think the war against misinformation is winnable, and the Twitter algorithm basically makes it impossible to promote the blog. Be back if there’s a general election, or Musk dies. Look after yourselves, and always fact-check.

[Yelling About Elections @YellElections]

@mikeinsdevon This post I posted twenty minutes ago has more impressions than the one with the link I posted three hours ago. Less than 10% of my followers seem to see tweets with links. It’s all a push to make you get Twitter Blue.

[Yelling About Elections @YellElections]

I’ve noticed that Twitter is increasingly suppressing posts with links in. Which leads me to ask - is there any point in this account?

[Yelling About Elections @YellElections]

@MFeijota Try 200k, not 2m.

[Yelling About Elections @YellElections]

Seeing as we know now he definitely won’t be a Labour candidate, here’s a bit of analysis I did last year as to how well a hypothetical Jeremy Corbyn led party might do.

https://t.co/QpJ39bmLNT

[Sky News @SkyNews]

Scotland's first minister Nicola Sturgeon is to resign https://t.co/LsjI6HChSh

[Yelling About Elections @YellElections]

@mikeinsdevon I haven’t properly dug into it, but agree with both

[Yelling About Elections @YellElections]

I’m not going to get suckered into the game of posting crazy MRPs, because I think we all know that the polls aren’t going to look like that at an actual election.

[Yelling About Elections @YellElections]

@TheLibRadEcho Exactly - a lot of the “don’t know”s fuelling current polling will default back to the base. Right now I have the next election as looking like a straight reverse of the last one with Labour on the high 300s and Tories around 200.

[Yelling About Elections @YellElections]

@robertcp Lol I actually had the Tories at 25% to begin with, then I though I’d been too safe with my last few predictions so added a bit on 🤣

[Yelling About Elections @YellElections]

65%-21% is my prediction #WestLancashireByElection

[Yelling About Elections @YellElections]

@PolitlcsUK Worst defeat ever *in West Lancashire*

[Yelling About Elections @YellElections]

@LabBeyondCities Exactly, just like the Con - Reform switchers, it’s a few thousand very loud people rather than people switching en masse

[Yelling About Elections @YellElections]

@JMagosh Exactly why no one needs to do weekly VI polls unless something major happens

[Yelling About Elections @YellElections]

@UKBadElectoral I’ve been highlighting a comparable winter by-election in 1996, 33% turnout

https://t.co/EybyioW5JT

[Yelling About Elections @YellElections]

@mikeinsdevon For reference, here’s a safe winter by-election from 1996 - turnout 33%

https://t.co/5D6rjxATbR

[Yelling About Elections @YellElections]

@Kevin_Maguire Turnout is irrelevant - here’s a comparable safe winter by-election from 1996, one year before Blair’s landslide

https://t.co/EybyioW5JT

[Yelling About Elections @YellElections]

@mikeinsdevon For reference, here’s a safe winter by-election from 1996 - turnout 33%

https://t.co/5D6rjxATbR

[Yelling About Elections @YellElections]

Anyone who tries to make you care about turnout in a winter by-election is an idiot. Here’s a comparable by-election from one year before Blair’s landslide.

[Yelling About Elections @YellElections]

@mikeinsdevon For reference, here’s a safe winter by-election from 1996 - turnout 33%

https://t.co/5D6rjxATbR

[Yelling About Elections @YellElections]

@mikeinsdevon For reference, here’s a safe winter by-election from 1996 - turnout 33%

https://t.co/5D6rjxATbR

[Yelling About Elections @YellElections]

More or less as expected in West Lancashire, swing slightly less than national projections, but it’s a safe seat so could be expected.

[Britain Elects @BritainElects]

West Lancashire parliamentary by-election, result:

LAB: 62.3% (+10.2)
CON: 25.4% (-10.9)
REF: 4.4% (+0.1)
LDEM: 4.1% (-0.8)
GRN: 2.9% (+0.5)
MRLP: 0.9% (+0.9)

Labour HOLD.

[Yelling About Elections @YellElections]

@mikeinsdevon I don’t pay much attention to the turnout worriers tbh, given that it nearly always comes from bad faith

[Yelling About Elections @YellElections]

@mikeinsdevon I read nothing into it whatsoever, it’s a winter by-election. It’ll still be higher than 2001, the previous low water mark (59%).