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𝗣𝗮𝗶𝗱 𝗖𝗼𝘂𝗿𝘀𝗲 𝗙𝗥𝗘𝗘 (PART - 1)
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I ran a little experiment on X two days ago. The results blew my mind.
I posted this: “In 3 years people will be saying ‘wow, I really should have bought $MSFT at $385’ while it trades at $668.”
That’s a 73% return in 3 years. Roughly 20% per year. Warren Buffett built one of the greatest fortune in history compounding at that exact rate.
The replies: “Not even a 2x??? Are you serious???”
And there it is, ladies and gentlemen. The exact reason retail never builds real wealth.
When Gensler left the SEC in January 2025, Bitcoin was at 109k. Today Bitcoin is at 75k.
One major reason the crypto markets have suffered is because market participants started to lose faith in the industry itself.
After Gensler left, it essentially just opened the floodgates to the grifting age of crypto, where influencers and politicians were launching memecoins and rug-pulling their followers each and every day, without fear of any repercussions. This led to a massive misallocation of capital into useless assets that drained liquidity from the industry.
While people celebrated Gensler leaving, it actually marked a turning point in the industry, with Bitcoin only marginally going higher before entering a bear market.
Now that people celebrate Powell's removal as chair of the Federal Reserve, it makes me think history will repeat itself once again.
People celebrate it in the short-term, but as we look back on this era in a few years, I imagine it will mark a major turning point in credibility at the Fed. If the Fed just becomes another cabinet of the executive branch, it may lead to a lack of trust in the institution itself.
Perhaps many will look back in a few years and realize that markets were better off with Powell than without him.
@benjamincowen Been seeing the nonsense some people are throwing at Ben. Ignore the noise. Your analysis and insights have been incredibly accurate and valuable for many of us. Keep doing what you’re doing — the signal is far louder than the critics.
When you tell people a month in advance that BTC will rally in the 1st week of March, but that it will be short-lived and to fade it.
And this is the response on the day of the lower high.
And every single one of them have been bull posting the entire way down.
I swear it feels like we live in a simulation.
Same playbook as 2022.
Bitcoin sells off during the start of a new conflict, finds a low in February, then bounces into March.
March rallies by Bitcoin in midterm years have been fairly short-lived.
In prior midterm years Bitcoin had tops that typically occur in the first week of March.
The one exception was 2022 where Bitcoin swept the early March high in late March.
2014 High: Mar 3rd
2018 High: Mar 5th
2022 High: Mar 2nd (Swept High Mar 28th)
2026 High: ???