@WaxMetrix Honestly, from what I’ve seen in breaks. I’m just staying away. Yes the class is great but to spend 250$ on a hobby for a chance at an auto hit. And 2 numbered cards. Idk personally I’ll wait for Megas as I like the x-fractor and amount of parallels you get.
Watching a 2026 topps chrome baseball break, and let me tell you I’m just not that interested. Yes rookies are good and I get that. But for me it’s out of budget and just not worth it. Singles it is. @CardPurchaser#TheHobby
Anyone have any input on this? I got an offer on eBay for 240 (just under authentication) from a buyer in Puerto Rico. I’ve never shipped there before and I’ve heard horror stories of the mail service there. Buyer has 300 positive feedback so seems trustworthy?
@CardPurchaser
@WaxMetrix Ik this is finest football, but curious if ur going to try to land any basketball update pre order tmr. Prices are absurd but do we think it’s a good flip so I can fund my baseball ripping?
Opened 3 2026 bowman blasters (ik small sample size) and didn’t get a single parallel besides the guaranteed reptilians. Don’t think you are going to get “hits” just because you see it online. @CardPurchaser
2025 Topps Chrome NFL
Since we’re dead nuts in the middle of a Topps Chrome frenzy, I wanted to add some context to answer the question:
How does Chrome NFL actually stack up from a value standpoint against Chrome NBA and Chrome MLB?
We all know how 2025 Chrome MLB went. Not well. In my analysis, I called it one of the worst products of the year, and I’ll stand behind that.
NBA Chrome? Complete opposite story.
From the first teaser, it was all hype. Still, somehow, we all underestimated it.
First came the sticker shock. But eventually came the realization…we should’ve been buying everything in sight while it was just sitting on shelves- even the lowly $50 "Value Boxes", which seemed like the worst deal on the planet at the time.
If you need more worthless stats like this in your life, feel free to follow me on Substack where you can see hundreds of hours of my life wasted in one tidy list of Sports Card Analysis.
https://t.co/ItcNNc6mz9
If you’ve followed me for any length of time, you’ve probably seen me reference a metric I created initially to compare NBA Chrome formats that I call “Quality Hits.” At a high level, it measures how often you’re actually hitting something worth a damn.
To qualify, a hit has to meet at least one of these criteria:
1) Parallels numbered /76 or less
2) Insert parallels /75 or less
3) Case Hit level Inserts (or rarer)
4) Autos /100 or less
Is it perfect? No. I understand there are great hits that won’t qualify. And there are plenty that do qualify, but still suck. This isn’t about players. It’s about "dart throws" (as my dude Stryker says). We don’t know who you’ll hit, but the odds do tell us how often you’re even giving yourself a chance.
Think of it like WAR in baseball. It’s not flawless, but it helps filter out the noise. By stripping out the fluff... unnumbered/common parallels, common inserts, watered-down autos… we can actually see which products are delivering substance vs. just stuffing boxes with filler.
Since rolling this out last year, I track it internally on every product I break down. It’s one of the cleanest ways I’ve found to compare value across formats, price points, and even different sports (& non-sports). It's a huge help when comparing a large list of products for value, which you'll definitely see more of in the future. Think "25 Best Wax Values on the Market" as we head into the National.
With all that in mind, I want to compare propensity of Quality Hits at secondary market pricing from the major Chrome releases in the three major sports. We all know the insane current pricing of NBA Chrome sealed stuff. Is there a chance, even at those prices, it could STILL be a better buy than NFL Chrome?
We also know you can STILL find 2025 Topps Chrome on many retail shelves three full quarters after release. Is there a chance it could be a sneaky value play because pricing on NFL & NBA have reached certifiably insane levels?
Let's find out.
Though I have my issues with the Big Bully Card resellers, I feel that's where most get their pricing data, so that's where I'll start. If you are able to find it cheaper, or brave the ebay waters, this will at least give you a foundation to go by. For our purposes, I will exclude Breaker's Delight formats because the only benefit in that would be for breakers.
Current pricing:
2025 Topps Chrome MLB
Hangers: N/A
Value Boxes: $40
Megas: $75
Fanatics Mega: $100
Hobby: $260
Jumbo: $530
2025/26 Topps Chrome NBA
Hangers: $90
Value Boxes: $95
Megas: $245
Fanatics Megas: $290
Hobby: $1335
Jumbo: $2375
2025 Topps Chrome NFL (In order to compare apples to apples, I will use secondary market pricing even on the retail stuff. We all know, if you can score at retail, just buy. You don't need metrics for free money.)
Hangers: $55
Value Boxes: $85
Megas: $148
Fanatics Megas: $135 (ebay)
Hobby: $1160
Jumbo: $2500
Now I'll integrate my Quality Hits metric to rank each format in "$ per Quality Hit":
Hangers:
1) NBA (1QH per 6.75 boxes)- $607.50
2) NFL (1QH per 22.11 boxes) - $1,216.05
Value Boxes:
1) MLB (1QH per 9.25 boxes)- $370.00
2) NBA (1QH per 6.52 boxes)- $619.40
3) NFL (1QH per 8.76 boxes)- $744.60
Megas:
1) MLB (1QH per 5.06 boxes)- $379.50
2) NBA (1QH per 3.5 boxes)- $857.50
3) NFL (1QH per 5.92 boxes)- $876.16
Fanatics Megas:
1) MLB (1QH per 3.81 boxes)- $381.00
2) NFL (1QH per 5.05 boxes)- $681.75
3) NBA (1QH per 2.99 boxes)- $867.10
Hobby:
1) MLB (1QH per 1.67 boxes)- $434.20
2) NFL (1QH per 0.99 boxes)- $1,148.40
3) NBA (1QH per 1.13 boxes)- $1,508.55
Jumbo:
1) MLB (1QH per 1.1 boxes)- $583.00
2) NFL (1QH per 0.52 boxes)- $1,300.00
3) NBA (1QH per 0.55 boxes)- $1,306.25
$ per Quality Hit Tops 5 Formats:
1) MLB Value Boxes- $370.00
2) MLB Megas- $379.50
3) MLB Fanatics Megas- $381.00
4) MLB Hobby- $434.20
5) MLB Jumbo- $583.00
Oh my. Looks like a clean sweep. Widely known as a trash product, yet from a value standpoint, every format of MLB Chrome performs better than NFL or NBA.
So, this isn't exactly a fair fight. Much like the 1998 Home Run race, MLB is a bit of a cheater in this race. Namely, checklist matters. And that MLB Chrome checklist is not deep. There are some names, but as for depth, it definitely occupies the kiddie pool compared to the competition. And that 166-subject Rookie Auto checklist is abysmal. Not to mention the built in values propped up by NFL & NBA being first year back as licensed products. So let's look at the next 5 formats:
6) NBA Hangers- $607.50
7) NBA Value Boxes- $619.40
8) NFL Fanatics Megas- $681.75
9) NFL Value Boxes- $744.60
10) NBA Megas- $857.50
Honorable Mention:
11) NBA Fanatics Megas- $867.10
So if you're actually a ripper of product, and not into the MLB dumpster fire, even though maybe it provides some sneaky value without spending a mortgage payment, here's the neighborhood you want to live. And this is eye opening. Even at current absurd pricing, NBA Hangers and NBA Value Boxes are STILL better than any format offered by NFL Chrome. And the NBA checklist is the deepest of the three sports.
If you can't quit the NFL circus, do yourself a favor and go after Fanatics Megas and regular Megas when they drop on May 1. At drop pricing, they're a no-brainer. Even at secondary pricing, those Fanatics Megas sitting on Ebay for $135ish, I assure you will look like a steal in a few months.
#thehobby #SlabSquatchAnalytics #2025ToppsChromeNFL #2025ToppsChromeMLB #2025ToppsChromeNBA
Opened two 2026 heritage megas (hits below)
Two numbers and image variation burns
Honestly I love the product, design is great, good class, and who doesn’t like a real one auto. I think megas are the way to go instead of hobby with the low auto hits.
@CardPurchaser#TheHobby
@LogansLeague Agreed, just do the research. Find a guy who most likely will get called up soon, playing well, and isn’t the biggest name everyone is buying (aka Griffin). And either they move up top 100 or debut and u dump on the debut and make some profit hopefully (I like Kaelen Culpepper)