Eric Dubin

Polymath - Geopolitics; Markets (analyst, global macro/ground-up), financial media; Journalist; (radio/podcast/written, Exec./Managing Editor)

[Eric Dubin @Zeitgeist_Scan]

@davidbateman @TrueOnX In the least, narcissism blocks Thiel's ability to even conceptualize Coopetition

[Eric Dubin @Zeitgeist_Scan]

@davidbateman Your worldview is stellar, David. I like what you live and represent. If you like, drop me a DM sometime. I think we have a lot in common, and we might be catalytic to each other.

[Macro Liquidity by Sunil Reddy @Macrobysunil]

Look at the divergence between oil price and the backwardation curve on the latest Fake news hit.

The news narrative is simple: we are moving toward peace, so crude gets dumped.

But if the market truly believes peace is coming, why is it pricing the immediate barrel at an even bigger premium to next month?

That makes no sense.

If peace really reduces near-term supply risk, backwardation should cool alongside the oil price. Instead, it increased while oil was sold.

This clearly looks like a forced/manufactured dump in paper oil.

The most interesting explanation: someone is using the weakness to load up while the physical/near-term market continues pricing barrels as scarce.

Watch the curve, not just the headline.

price says peace but the curve says immediate barrels are getting tighter.

In the below chart White line is oil price.
Blue line is the spread between current month and next month crude, the backwardation curve.

[pmbug @pmbug]

🚁Helicopter Musings on Gold and Silver🚁

Gold

There are several concurrent things happening that lead me to think that LBMA gold free float vault stock might be more constrained than anyone thinks (at least - I'm not seeing anyone talk about it):

> 🇨🇳 The premium for SGE gold to LBMA gold has been increasing over the last few days. Looks like China's demand for gold is growing.

> 🇮🇳 The IBJA spot discount to LBMA spot is collapsing while MCX futures gold vault stock is on the rise over the last few days. It looks like Indian gold demand is growing while they are also buying gold again. I expect we'll learn later that Indian gold imports have surged here in late September.

> 🇺🇸 COMEX Exchange For Physical (EFP) spread went deeply negative (providing bullion banks a profit arbitrage for taking delivery of COMEX gold and shipping it to London to sell in the LBMA OTC market) and at the same time the COMEX delisted "Enhanced Delivery" gold vault stock to the tune of 4M ozt. This while delivery requests against the September contract have been consistently strong over the last few days. It looks to me like fallout from physical demand from India buying gold (either directly from the COMEX or indirectly via the LBMA and bullion banks need to shore up London vault stock with COMEX gold).

> GLD (and presumably most other gold ETFs, though I'm not watching them daily) vault stock has been growing with large inflows over the last week. That directly pressures the LBMA free float vault stock.

I'm guessing the COMEX's 4M ozt "Enhanced Delivery" vault stock is being used to cover some supply stress. I don't expect we get an transparency on it though.

Silver

Silver looks a lot more calm compared to gold at the moment and that's somewhat surprising as silver is usually the volatile metal. However, there are some things I'm paying attention to:

> 🇨🇳 SGE spot premium to LBMA has remained consistently high between $8 and $9 per ozt. Demand seems steady and strong.

> 🇮🇳 IBJA spot + MCX futures are both maintaining a premium to LBMA spot even after discounting the 15% import duty. At the same time, MCX silver (KG) vault stock is back on the rise indicating that India is buying and importing silver. Physical demand in India remains strong.

> 🇺🇸 In the last three days, COMEX silver withdrawals slowed down but prior to that, were very heavy. The 5 DMA of deposits and withdrawals is currently negative (a withdrawal rate). Will the drain pick up again as we head into October (a heavy demand month for silver)?

> SLV (and most other ETFs) has increased vault stock which directly pressures LBMA free float. The 1mo lease rate has responded rising from moderately negative back to positive or near zero in the last few days.

Looks to me like a pot of water that is simmering but not at a boil yet. Yet.

[Eric Dubin @Zeitgeist_Scan]

All things considered, rapidly rising real bond yields and a rising dollar would normally be greater headwinds than recent gold performance has been able to resist. Gold, and silver in turn, would be performing worse were it not for the factors Ole S. Hansen, Saxo’s Head of Commodity Strategy, addresses in his recent report. This is a great, short read:

https://t.co/w82v6jCwHO

[Ole S Hansen @Ole_S_Hansen]

Gold is facing a major stress test amid a continued surge in US bond and real yields combine with renewed dollar strength. Yet ETF holdings and Chinese demand remain resilient, highlighting a market supported by investors seeking security and an alternative to traditional financial assets. https://t.co/9ycnPXI3g3 via @saxobank

[Jack Prandelli @jackprandelli]

thanks for listening....

🇸🇦🚨 Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan will hold an urgent military chiefs meeting after the Houthis launched dozens of missiles and drones at Saudi targets.

Riyadh says it intercepted 6 ballistic missiles.

The energy risk is escalating with the military response Yanbu was again placed on alert while Saudi’s East-West pipeline remains offline.

The Red Sea export route is becoming a front line.

Source: Reuters

[Eric Dubin @Zeitgeist_Scan]

@Macrobysunil Long-time silver investors are all too familiar with observing selling during relatively illiquid part of the session. "Market management" - haha!

[fred hickey @htsfhickey]

Roque pointed out on a chart of the 10-year Treasury yield going back the last five decades 16 instances where it experienced a rapid advance like it is now. During each and every move, some sort of financial calamity resulted.

“We should be prepared or forewarned that rates are rising and something is going to break,” Roque warned.

“Something always breaks,”

With a VIX "fear gauge" at just 15+, sentiment still extremely bullish, FINRA margin debt up 37% Y/Y to $1.45T (and that's just a portion of the leverage in the market), virtually no investors are "prepared or forewarned that rates are rising and something is going to break."

Today's investors are brazenly complacent (as they were in early 2000 and again in 2007 to early 2008) and that's a dangerous position to be in (again).
https://t.co/LyQa9cJiFu

[Eric Dubin @Zeitgeist_Scan]

@BryanPScoggins Your "me issue" is necessary methodology, too! haha...

[Eric Dubin @Zeitgeist_Scan]

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian sat down with Bret Baier. Fox promoted it as a Special Report exclusive for 6:00 p.m. ET tonight (Thursday, Sept. 24, 2026). Some earlier items listed a 1:00 p.m. ET taping window; that was the sit-down, not the broadcast. The show has already run.

The full sit-down is not yet posted as one standalone public YouTube video. Fox is rolling out clips on X and its video pages. Full-episode or extended interview uploads usually follow later the same night or next morning.

Main clips Fox has posted so far

Supreme Leader health / public absence: Pezeshkian said he met Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei in person about a month ago for roughly seven hours and that he is “very much so completely” healthy and able to govern. He sidestepped why Khamenei has not appeared on video.
https://t.co/gGaaEZuyFL
https://t.co/tyz0cUQmXx

War vs. deal: Baier asked whether Iran is choosing war or a deal. Pezeshkian: “We do not choose war. The war was imposed on us. We do not seek war.”
https://t.co/IndsnDYvje

Hormuz / prior agreement: He said Iran has “not closed the Strait of Hormuz,” claimed they “did reach an agreement with your president,” and that Tehran still wants to move forward.
https://t.co/KL1JNODQBp

Who ends the war: Asked if the conflict could end by year-end, he said: “It’s America that must choose whether it wants to end this or not.” He added Iranians “do not wish to fight.”
https://t.co/xcRwFSiE1c

Reuters independently quoted the same line from the broadcast.

[Fox News @FoxNews]

"It's America that must choose."

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian tells @BretBaier that Iranians "do not wish to fight" and claims the regime wants peace, not death.

Throughout the interview, Baier challenged Pezeshkian on ways the IRGC's actions have contradicted diplomatic rhetoric and violated agreements.

@SpecialReport

[bob coleman @profitsplusid]

Silver Short term - This is where silver shorts would cover.
Rising yellow line support. Converging with 55 Day moving average.

If support holds, inverted head and shoulders pattern building in the short term.

So far, silver stuck in a trading range since August.

Silver capped by a declining green line resistance.

[Eric Dubin @Zeitgeist_Scan]

@MarioNawfal It's probably a system developed by AeroVironment (NASDAQ: AVAV).

https://t.co/0yw55iha1y

[Eric Dubin @Zeitgeist_Scan]

@BrettErickson28 @BabakTaghvaee1 @grok Brett, you'll like this methodology for your work (perhaps you're already doing it). Adversarial arrgument review between differing AI services sometimes outs good context: https://t.co/eoF97hkCZZ

[Luke Gromen @LukeGromen]

If only we could ask Alan Greenspan about how to deal with this debt problem.

Oh wait, Greenspan warned about this 20 years ago & 10 years ago, concluding, "Unfortunately, I don't see how we're going to get out of this before we have a crisis."

PS: Jamie Dimon agreed with him👇

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

WHITE HOUSE SEEKS VOLUNTARY DIESEL EXPORT CURBS

Energy Secretary Chris Wright has contacted major U.S. refiners about voluntarily reducing diesel exports, Reuters reports.

The administration is searching for an alternative to an outright export ban as diesel prices hover around $6.52 per gallon and inventories remain tight.

Refiners have limited enthusiasm, warning restrictions could force production cuts and ultimately push gasoline prices higher.

[Eric Dubin @Zeitgeist_Scan]

Alan Eyre: "I'm quoted in this @Reuters
piece, pointing out increased pressure on Iran will invariably lead to Iranian counter-escalation, not compromise." https://t.co/MQs6yYZR7C

[Alan Eyre @AlanEyre1]

I'm quoted in this @Reuters piece, pointing out increased pressure on Iran will invariably lead to Iranian counter-escalation, not compromise. @MiddleEastInst
https://t.co/VGWB31w2lr

[Eric Dubin @Zeitgeist_Scan]

Reuters, 12:18 p.m. EDT: U.S. and Iranian negotiators in New York are exploring a phased off-ramp, where Iran reopens Hormuz, Washington lifts the blockade (frozen-asset access possible).

Former U.S. Iran negotiator Alan Eyre (@AlanEyre1): “The blockade is hurting them, but rather than softening their position, it is likely to drive them to escalate because they believe that if they soften their position, they are dead.”

Narrower than the June MOU. Kyodo reported a similar Iranian 7-day Hormuz offer earlier this week (see replies).
https://t.co/JQJQhRmU1z

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

PEZESHKIAN SET FOR FOX NEWS INTERVIEW TONIGHT

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian is scheduled for a Fox News interview today at 1:00 PM ET.

The interview will be conducted by Bret Baier.

[Eric Dubin @Zeitgeist_Scan]

@AlanEyre1 KKyodo News story earlier this week: https://t.co/GBOqeUfLml

[Eric Dubin @Zeitgeist_Scan]

@Ole_S_Hansen The one week demand was originally reported by Kyodo News, earlier this week. https://t.co/Un5ltm6gmt

[Eric Dubin @Zeitgeist_Scan]

@Ole_S_Hansen The one week demand was originally reported by Kyodo News, earlier this week. https://t.co/Un5ltm6gmt