ZenRules

[ZenRules @ZenRules]

@m_felgate @A_Evers Beat horses outside of Hong Kong?

[ZenRules @ZenRules]

@raefejenkins Boomers have the day off… the younger generation has to work. Let’s be honest and make voting days a holiday.

[ZenRules @ZenRules]

@Justify3107 Horribly slow horses… it’s bad

[ZenRules @ZenRules]

@ThruTheBridle They are bad all the way around

[ZenRules @ZenRules]

@Zipseatthetrack Shitty crop of slow horses

[ZenRules @ZenRules]

@Zipseatthetrack It’s a pretty horrible crop - if it’s ever going to be done again - this is the year.

[ZenRules @ZenRules]

@pawluk_michael And it’s also more likely than not to be absolutely freezing in late Oct! I’ve done BC at Churchill and froze my ass off the entire time. No thanks.

[Governor Andy Beshear @GovAndyBeshear]

When it comes to Derby, I know where I stand: behind the hat.

Always proud to be your date, Britainy.

[ZenRules @ZenRules]

@MachmerHall He’s my pick! I loved him in the Juvenile. He’s bred to love the distance. Hope he’s improving at the right time! Good luck!

[ZenRules @ZenRules]

@KennyMcPeek @Hinesite @keenelandracing You assume that all trainers have the same well being for the animals as you. The vets speak when the animals can’t. The vets aren’t the problem - your colleagues who run unsafe horses are. Your anger is misguided.

[ZenRules @ZenRules]

@kimo16 @Justify3107 @santaanitapark @BaomaCorp @BobBaffert @hutagomez_gomez Do you sell your photos?

[ZenRules @ZenRules]

@kimo16 @santaanitapark @BaomaCorp @BobBaffert @hutagomez_gomez Do you sell your pics? This is great!

[ZenRules @ZenRules]

@jstewartrr @GraffardRacing She’s stunning!

[ZenRules @ZenRules]

@RagozinSheets @DailyRacingForm @DRFHegarty Racing hates Belinda.

[ZenRules @ZenRules]

@MachmerHall Was so much fun to read! Loved it!

[Tinky @Tinky47flat]

‡

Barnes is Retired, and The Beat Goes On

First, I need to tip my hat to Ray's clever, related announcement (see attached image), and no one will be surprised to learn that I find his sarcasm to be fully warranted.

Secondly, at least some readers will recall that I wrote a brief post after Barnes won his debut in November of 2024.

Here's the gist of that post:

This is one of countless illustrations of the difference between a successful "corporate" trainer, and one who has mastered the art of training.

No one in the latter group would ever want a big, later-developing horse...to be hustled early on in order to set or force the pace, and be whipped and driven to win a 5.5f. MSW race first time out.

It's literally the opposite of how the best trainers choose to introduce their horses to racing.

***
In contrast to posts that I write about soundness concerns, that was not the focus of my post on Barnes, and I have no reason to believe that there was any connection between his first start, and premature retirement.

I was, however, making the point that the best, and most thoughtful trainers, understand that first-starters should ideally be taught to relax behind horses before they ever race, and have those lessons reinforced when they make their first starts. The reason is that inexperienced horses are impressionable, and what they learn (or don't) in their first starts often helps to set the stage for their racing careers. So it can prove more difficult to teach a horse to relax after it has been allowed, if not encouraged, to race freely and fast, first time out.

Put another way, naturally fast horses with a high cruising speed can always be sent to race on, or close to the pace later in their careers, but if they race freely on debut, it is not always possible, let alone easy, to subsequently teach them to "switch off".

With that in mind, consider Barnes' PPs (see attached image). In his second start, he pressed a fast pace and won the 7f. San Vicente. After the race, Baffert was quoted as saying that the colt "reminded him of his 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah", and it was clear that his connections were harboring Derby dreams.

But when asked to stretch out in the San Felipe, Barnes predictably set the pace, and ultimately failed to resist Journalism's late run. By all evidence, in retrospect, he was beaten by a better horse, but in his next start, the 9f. Santa Anita Derby, Baffert made a belated attempt to have him rate off of the pace. It failed, as the colt – again predictably – raced keenly in the early stages, and ended up finishing last, beaten nearly 20 lengths.

He was off for roughly five months after that race, but even if he did suffer some physical setback during the running, the point that I am attempting to hammer home remains intact.

Returning to the races at Saratoga, Barnes came from off of the pace in the 7f. Allen Jerkens, and, according to the chart, "ran on" to finish third. Shortening up again, and dropping in class at Parx, he rallied to finish fourth at odds of 2/5.

In what would turn out to be his final start, he was allowed to race freely up on the pace, and dominated a field of Grade III runners.

Was it a coincidence that his only two wins after his debut came when he was allowed to race freely up on the pace? I think not.

Was it a coincidence that he was unplaced twice, and never finished better than third when his riders restrained him off the pace? I think not.

Why? Because inexperienced horses are impressionable, and the dubious lesson that Barnes learned in his debut arguably shaped his brief career.

***
On a broader, and more important note, owner Amr Zedan and trainer Bob Baffert are poster boys for the insidious breed-to-sell paradigm, which continues to inflict the industry.

These are the number of career starts made by the best colts owned outright by Zedan, and now retired (auction price):

6 Arabian Knight ($2.3m)
7 Barnes ($3.2m)
8 Taiba ($1.7m)
9 Arabian Lion ($600k)
9 Muth ($2.0m)
10 Medina Spirit ($35k)
11 Hejazi ($3.55m)

Average number of career starts: 8.5

Both Zedan and Baffert appear to be quite happy with the results, given that the former continues to spend freely at the sales each year, and the latter's bank account is further fattened. And to be fair, they are simply following perverse incentives, and taking advantage of a corrupt system.

As long as the industry chooses to incentivize premature retirements, in part through the scheduling of excessive numbers of Graded stakes for young horses, many of which result in specious honors, owners will be able to cash-in on dubiously sound, often underexposed horses in the breeding market.

Beyond those closely connected with well-bred colts, who in the industry, other than those involved in the sales process, including major stud farms, does the insidious paradigm benefit?

I'd say that the answer is no one. Fans and bettors certainly suffer from premature retirements, as they are deprived of continuity, and the opportunity to watch "good" horses prove themselves as older runners. Breeders are also short-changed, as they are asked to support lightly raced stallions which have neither proven themselves to be sound, nor, in many cases, had their racing abilities and limitations fully tested or exposed. Then there is the general degradation of durability in the breed, fueled in part by the premature retirements.

And it is the industry's "middle-class" which suffers the most. Owners, trainers and breeders who can't easily afford to target horses with high-fashion pedigrees, are rarely able to cash-in on early stud deals. The concentration of sought-after bloodlines, and rising associated costs, also make it increasingly difficult for them to compete on the track. The de-emphasis of durability as an important quality undercuts the value of breeding thoughtfully, and standing useful sires that promote soundness. Etc.

Barnes' retirement is yet another symptom of deeper, systemic problem. The salient question is when, or whether the industry will ever choose to address the cause.

[Suzie rizzio @Suzierizzo1]

A Republican mother of four that voted for Trump 3 different times was diagnosed with a fatal fetus & thought that she was going to be able to receive care to remove it & when she didn’t & was told to Google what to do or miscarry she got upset.She voted for this! No sympathy!

[ZenRules @ZenRules]

@DRFLivingston @DRFBreeding @claibornefarm This is amazing!! Will this be available as a print??

[ZenRules @ZenRules]

@DRFLivingston @Doogievet @DailyRacingForm @BreedersCup I actually keep trying to forget!

[ZenRules @ZenRules]

@USASteeplechase Spot on. Superstars transcend the sport - my family asks me about them. Regardless of who you think is the best, or who would have beaten who. They capture the general public’s imagination. American Pharoah and Zenyatta were the only two I can think of who did that recently.