Lucas

French Investor 🇫🇷

[Lucas @Zeryyx_]

September 2026 — The rebuild starts here.

I took a portfolio from €450k to €1.2m, before seeing it return close to its starting point.

Phase one was about performance.
Phase two was a brutal lesson in concentration and risk management.
Phase three starts now.

Tax and administrative constraints kept the account from trading for four months. They clearly made the drawdown worse, but I won’t pretend to know exactly what I would have done otherwise.
What matters is what happens next.

Instead of hiding the reset, I’m going to rebuild the portfolio in public — documenting the research, decisions, mistakes and progress along the way.

[MarketMaverick @MktMavPro]

Analysts matter… $NBIS

“Northland (Chokshi, $410): #108 of ~10,100 analysts, 60% success rate, +25% avg return. Initiated $NBIS at $34 in May 2025 — right the whole way up. Bias: 72% of his ratings are buys.

Redburn (Haissl, $84): ~#4,200, 45% success, +4.6% avg return. Habitual bear (43% sells), no history on the name, extreme DCF assumptions.”

[Lucas @Zeryyx_]

Most of the time, analysts are pure garbage.

They're wrong? They just revise their PT.
They're right? They're goated analysts.

It's not that different from influencers deleting their posts once proven wrong.

[Wall St Engine @wallstengine]

ROTHSCHILD REDBURN LAUNCHES COVERAGE ACROSS AI DATA CENTER NAMES

$NBIS: SELL, $84 PT

Says Nebius has a demanding valuation and questions the sustainability of its unit economics. Upside could come from newer-generation GPUs, faster growth of its Token Factory inference business and stronger capacity execution. Risks include customers bringing compute in-house and higher funding costs.

$CRWV: SELL, $54 PT

Redburn questions CoreWeave's unit economics and ability to convert its pipeline into attractive returns. Key risks include hyperscalers or AI labs bringing capacity in-house, falling GPU pricing and higher financing costs.

$DLR: BUY, $227 PT

Highlights Digital Realty's global wholesale and colocation footprint, long-term tenant contracts and expansion into larger, higher-density facilities built for AI workloads and hyperscale customers.

$EQIX: BUY, $1,261 PT

Points to Equinix's global interconnection ecosystem as a key advantage, with AI, HPC, enterprise and cloud customers increasingly needing high-density compute close to networks and other infrastructure.

$IRM: BUY, $132 PT

Iron Mountain has expanded beyond its legacy records-storage business into data centers, information management and IT asset lifecycle services, while developing more power-dense capacity for AI workloads.

The miner-to-AI names were treated much more cautiously:

$APLD: NEUTRAL, $22 PT

Says unit economics and pipeline-conversion risks are already well priced in. Upside comes from lower build/operating costs and additional large tenant signings. Risks include local opposition, construction delays and tenant insolvency.

$IREN: NEUTRAL, $40 PT

Sees upside from additional large-scale AI tenants and better execution at existing sites. Risks include difficulty securing tenants, higher funding costs and delays or cancellations.

$WULF: NEUTRAL, $15 PT

Potential upside comes from securing additional U.S. capacity and signing more major tenants. Permitting issues and state-level opposition are key risks.

$CIFR: NEUTRAL, $18 PT

Sees better or faster grid-capacity allocation and more major tenant deals as upside. Tenant pullouts and buildout delays are the main downside risks.

$HUT: NEUTRAL, $96 PT

Upside depends on faster data-center execution and securing additional grid capacity. Delays or cancellations in the buildout remain the key risk.

$CORZ: NEUTRAL, $16 PT

Core Scientific has been shifting capacity from Bitcoin mining toward AI/HPC hosting after emerging from bankruptcy, while continuing its mining business. Its proposed acquisition by CoreWeave collapsed last year after shareholders rejected the deal.

[Lucas @Zeryyx_]

Great to see $SIVE getting back on track.

Let's see if it can sustain this momentum during the NY Open.

Remember, the Glasgow facility's expansion leads us to 300M CW DFB lasers/year.

At 50% capacity and a $5-$8 ASP (which is very conservative given the recent news of laser suppliers' pricing power) we have $750M-$1.2B in revenue per year.

$SIVE is valued at 0.9x-1.4x these numbers.

I'm still heavily long on this position.

[Lucas @Zeryyx_]

I finalized my $NBIS position today at 210.
I have now the targeted allocation, if the stock drops below $190 I would initiate swing longs but as of now I just wait.

Still waiting for $SIVE to catch up with the rest but kind of sleeping meanwhile news are positive at the moment.

Will run my valuation models for $NBIS and will post it there as soon as it is finished.

Patience is key now !

[Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent @SecScottBessent]

.@larry_kudlow in @NewYorkSun gets it right. Here are the facts:

The dollar was on one side of 89.2% of global FX trades.

Foreign investors still hold enormous amounts of U.S. assets. The principal stablecoins are dollar-denominated. Treasury buybacks are about adding liquidity and managing the maturity structure, not somehow controlling a $30T+ market.

Median household income in 2025: $87,460 — a record.
Official poverty rate: 10.2% — a historic low.
Atlanta Fed GDP forecast: 5.1% annualized real GDP growth in Q3.

And that’s before looking under the hood at the private-sector momentum behind capex and the AI buildout.

The latest numbers show continued employment growth, while business investment and capital expenditures have been expanding, as the CapEx comeback story has continued to broaden out, with nearly 20% more equipment investment in Q2 2026 than at the end of Biden’s term.

Americans deserve honest coverage.

In the New York Times’s latest feeble attempt at delivering a hit piece on the greatest economy in history, the discredited journal selectively excludes data that contradicts this dull narrative. Granted, it’s nothing new that they fail to provide their readers with the full story.

Complicated financial realities should not be reduced to easy-to-read sentences that serve a preordained narrative.

This article’s problem is not complexity. It is selectivity.

If capital is supposedly running from America, why does the data keep showing strong foreign demand for U.S. assets?

If investors are “balking” at Treasuries, someone forgot to tell the bidders.

Norway is not looking elsewhere; it is switching from Treasuries to agency bonds. Still US assets.

Netherlands is bringing gold back from North America, including Ottawa as well as New York, reflecting a home country preference.

We see this morning that Saudi Arabia has dropped out of mBridge and others are likely to follow.

And if digital finance is supposed to threaten the dollar, why are stablecoins overwhelmingly dollar-denominated?

The record is not ambiguous.
https://t.co/oc2UM7ls6F

[Lucas @Zeryyx_]

@Gaetano2026 AAOI's ATM offering really killed the momentum. The dilution is getting absorbed by the broader rally in photonics, which explains why it's trading sideways right now.
Outlook is still solid though.

[Lucas @Zeryyx_]

Still a good way to go with $SOI — there is no way around their wafers if there is mass adoption of CPO technologies.

If you guys need to read a written thesis and build your own conviction about the stock, go check out @WealthyReadings' posts, it's top-notch!

[Lucas @Zeryyx_]

$SOI - It seems that I was right on this one.

Remember what I said : keep the most resilient stocks on your watchlist. They will recover the fastest.

[Lucas @Zeryyx_]

Europe is bound to failure as long as those technocrats remain here.

[The Few Bets That Matter @WealthyReadings]

> Create a tough situation from ideologies
> Tough situation profite to a sector. Lucky them.
> Over tax that sector, because they are evil (they did nothing new though)
> Situation is fixed or solutions are found.
> Sector got all its profits taxed, and has no cash to survive back to normal as taxes aren't lowered
> Companies can't invest and struggle to weather those new situations
> Sector crumbled, no innovation, no expansion, no améliorations.
> Politics cry about mean capitalists ruining children's life.
> Population believes them even if they are responsible for everything

Yay.

[Lucas @Zeryyx_]

I don’t want to comment on my home-country’s situation but it’s striking to see all of the bad decisions made (either by French politicians or EU ones).

With rising rates, no growth at all, rising inflation + oil shortage, it’s hard to see any positive outcome from this.

[The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter]

BREAKING: France is running out of fuel. 11% of France's stations nationwide are now out of petrol or diesel, one in nine, with 16% of stations short in Grand Est, 15% in Pays de la Loire, 14% in Occitanie, and 13% in Centre-Val de Loire, per government figures published this morning.

The official count only registers a station as short if it has no petrol at all or no diesel at all, so a station out of one grade but holding another is not counted, meaning the real shortage is much larger. French diesel averages €2.406 a litre, about $10.45 a gallon.

Europe is facing its worst energy crisis in history.

[Lucas @Zeryyx_]

I lied guys, I scooped more into $NBIS at $211 today, I can’t help myself.

Very happy with this position with cost basis at $207 and I am not trimming it until $300+.

[Lucas @Zeryyx_]

I finalized my $NBIS position today at 210.
I have now the targeted allocation, if the stock drops below $190 I would initiate swing longs but as of now I just wait.

Still waiting for $SIVE to catch up with the rest but kind of sleeping meanwhile news are positive at the moment.

Will run my valuation models for $NBIS and will post it there as soon as it is finished.

Patience is key now !

[Lucas @Zeryyx_]

@ren_stocks That gaves us an opportunity to pile up more into $NBIS at least !

[Lucas @Zeryyx_]

I finalized my $NBIS position today at 210.
I have now the targeted allocation, if the stock drops below $190 I would initiate swing longs but as of now I just wait.

Still waiting for $SIVE to catch up with the rest but kind of sleeping meanwhile news are positive at the moment.

Will run my valuation models for $NBIS and will post it there as soon as it is finished.

Patience is key now !

[Lucas @Zeryyx_]

Scooped on more $SOI shares on this -10% at open.

I don’t see it down way more in the next few days. It held relatively well on the drawdown and they announced very positive guidances.

Let’s see !

[Lucas @Zeryyx_]

Exactly this.
Inflation is not that high. CPI sits around 2.3%

The biggest leverage to reduce it or contain it is to end this Iran War and let Oil prices decrease !

[mon @moninvestor]

The one thing people don’t understand is that raising interest rates isn’t going to fix the part of inflation that is being driven by what’s happening in the Middle East.

Oil has gone above $100 because of the war with Iran, and raising interest rates isn’t going to bring oil prices down. Obviously higher rates will have an impact elsewhere because borrowing becomes more expensive and people spend less, but that doesn’t solve the actual pressure coming from energy prices.

That pressure comes down when oil comes down, and that comes down if the situation in the Middle East improves. Kevin Warsh was also brought in by Trump with the expectation that rates would come down, not go up.

So I think raising rates will be a last resort for him.

[Lucas @Zeryyx_]

Well, FED raised rates by 25 bps as anticipated.

Here are the dots.
We'll likely see another hike before end of year but all this still depends on Iran war resolution.

Curious to see Warsh's tone during his speech.

[Lucas @Zeryyx_]

I will obviously comment on FOMC's decision and Warsh's speech tonight but I won't post very regularly until next Monday.

I have to speedrun the AMF Certification in order to get my regulatory clearance.

[Lucas @Zeryyx_]

$SOI - It seems that I was right on this one.

Remember what I said : keep the most resilient stocks on your watchlist. They will recover the fastest.

[Lucas @Zeryyx_]

Scooped on more $SOI shares on this -10% at open.

I don’t see it down way more in the next few days. It held relatively well on the drawdown and they announced very positive guidances.

Let’s see !

[Lucas @Zeryyx_]

Here are JPM Guidances for today’s decision.

Hard to predict today's decision, but 20Y and 30Y yields sitting near 5.3% are unsustainable. As JPM notes, a 25 bps hike could actually reassure markets, contain inflation expectations on the long end, and give equities room to bounce.

Let’s see what Warsh will say !

[Barchart @Barchart]

JP Morgan's Trading Gameplan for tomorrow's rate decision 🚨 🚨

[Lucas @Zeryyx_]

I started my position on $NBIS today at $204.4 ; only 40% of my targeted position.

Ready to lower my cost basis if it goes to $170-$190 range.

Also sold my little $AXTI position.

NFA

[Lucas @Zeryyx_]

Scooped on more $SOI shares on this -10% at open.

I don’t see it down way more in the next few days. It held relatively well on the drawdown and they announced very positive guidances.

Let’s see !

[Lucas @Zeryyx_]

It's insane to see how the market is reacting as if it wasn't important.

10Y are near 5%, chances of Fed hiking are increasing, Oil > $100 bbl, Trump promising $5k to every 18+ US citizen, etc.

Let's see how CPI unfolds tomorrow.

I opened a long on $AEHR today but I wouldn't mind markets to retrace to start my $NBIS and $SNDK positions that I've been waiting for too long.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: The market now sees a new high 71% chance of the Fed hiking interest rates by October.

There is also now a 62% chance of a rate hike at next week's meeting.

Markets think Fed Chair Warsh's first rate move is a HIKE.

Talk about a turn of events.