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[FinancialJuice @financialjuice]

Trump to Fox News on Iran: deal expected to be signed Monday, Tuesday or Wednesday as talks progress

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: President Trump says he is going to call Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and "tell him not to strike Iran back," per Axios.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: Israel says Iran has launched a wave of ballistic missiles toward Israel moments ago.

This marks the first Iranian attack on Israel since the ceasefire agreement began on April 8th.

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

Trump on Iran: "We're very close to having a deal — and if we don't have a deal, we'll do it one way or the other. Either way, we win."

[elastiXx | Peripheral @elastiXx94]

New ATK mouse: ATK Phantom

[Pop Base @PopBase]

Donald Trump claims that he never insisted there would be no new wars under his leadership:

“First of all, I didn't guarantee no war. Why would I have built the strongest military in the world?”

[Ozzny @Ozzny_CS2]

Who thought it was a good idea to let donk play in Stage 2?

Bro is just smurfing 😭

[TheGreenFire (CS) @TheGreenFireCS]

i was looking through some crafts on float and WHAT THE FUCK DID I JUST FIND BRO 😭

[Coinvo @Coinvo]

WOW: Apple will use Nvidia powered chips to upgrade its Siri AI!

[Hims House @himshouse]

🚨 BREAKING: NOVO NORDISK $NVO WEGOVY PILL SURPASSES 3 MILLION PRESCRIPTIONS

- First 1 million hit in 12 weeks (Jan 5 - Mar 23)
- Next 2 million came in 10 weeks (Mar 23 - Jun 1)
- $HIMS officially launched the pill on Mar 26 👀

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Oh look… $NVDA CEO warned memory shortage is expected to persist for many years, due to massive scaling demand of AI infrastructure.

With further announcements tomorrow.

$MU and $EWY (Samsung/SK Hynix) operating profit projections aren’t looking too crazy anymore?

[Polymarket @Polymarket]

JUST IN: Chinese startup Monako unveils smart glasses built to run AI coding agents like Claude Code & Codex.

[Tooly @ToolySOL]

Showing my son where his baby food money went.

[Noamneo @Noamneo_]

Everyone who bought the dip instead of panic selling on Monday morning:

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

I think my personal style of investing is a bit different, just some reflection:

It's inherently discretionary, based on stuff markets don't know yet. And a culmination of life experiences?

If you look at $AXTI, $RPI, $SIVE, $IQE and others.

Lot of it is guessing on unstructured relationships then seeing if it's right or not down the line.

$RPI is the perfect example:

1. Nobody really thought of Raspberry Pis for AI growth. Mainly people bought one or two just for class + education + hobbyist.
2. After OpenClaw, just noticed all my friends and people just buying Apple Mac Minis / RPIs for AI applications.
3. Found validation of that trend online with lot of people sharing video tutorials on AI orchestration with RPI.
4. AI was their ideal perfect growth vector, did some modeling, and thought it was compelling.

Earnings comes out and I was right.

Everyone in media was calling it a meme stock because there's nothing online that shows revenue growth from AI (was 14% forecasted revenue growth, turned out to be 58%, my projection was around 55%).

So it was a mix of guessing next industry trend (AI using lightweight hardware instead of GPU clusters), real life trends, then revenue forecasting off my guess.

For stuff like $AXTI:

1. Everyone called it a joke when I bought at ~$12. LLMs would hallucinate and say "hyperscalers/govs would have known about this by now and fixed this vulnerability with InP substrates"
2. Or would conflate very nuanced parts of InP substrate stack, where there's multiple different chokepoints in upstream processing.
3. So part of this was just discretionary based on what I've seen over InP substrate breakdowns, industry trends, etc.
4. Then also guessing the major supercycle was photonics (this was before everyone caught onto $LITE, and others). Or before you saw the $141B TAM projections from GS.
5. AXT owned 40% of InP supply chain, without them the supply chain just gets cripped).
6. All the "analysts" were forecasting steady InP substrate growth, few hundred million TAM, etc. or export controls.
7. Everyone kept trying to say $AXTI was overvalued based on TAM estimates. But if it's a few hundred million TAM you just think that's a joke and go into game theory over allocations.
8. Then I just had to guess, how much would this be worth if it were a NAND style bottleneck, what MC could it reach based on control, how much would hyperscalers price it as, etc.

A lot of the current research outputs from Goldman Sachs, or earnings reports from the Epiwafer companies, were confirmed after I published my piece on AXT. If you did research back then, lot of the same material /framing wouldn't have come up.

With stuff like $XFAB as you're seeing now, a lot of it is just pure guessing:

1. Not really any CPO materials, how much their MTP process makes in revenue, etc. Everyone online keeps saying they're not a photonics player.
2. But if you go through ASE docs or Gov websites, they all kinda cite XFAB as a major emerging player here.
3. $NVDA also evaluating them right now (maybe it's successful who knows).
4. No clear revenue around this area because their main silicon photonics process is still precommercial, but if you guess it's trying to create a EU supply chain to compete with $TSEM, once pre-commercial shifts to commercial, maybe similar but less volume contracts?
5. Then just seeing updates over the next few months to see if anything confirms this thesis guess.

_

I think a lot of information discovery still can be done with LLMs I'm seeing online. But it's also really hard to make a bunch of unstructured inferences based on unrelated material or even just trends you're seeing in real life.

So probably better to just do what's standard, eg. do valuation forecasting based on current numbers

Stuff like $AAOI, if they're projecting $471m/M h1 2027 and you see MC at $12B, probably undervalued might be a good idea to go long for next years.

Stuff like Samsung Electronics is easier, see what people are modeling for operating profits for 2027, 2028 then just seeing if it's undervalued or not at current levels.

Maybe something harder is $JBL. I haven't really seen any great volume numbers around 1.6T LRO, but you can just make a guess on how popular that might be then project how that might impact current MCs.

Or picking just good names everyone kinda agrees like $TSM, $INTC, $MRVL is also solid.

So a lot of things is just building up your life skills then applying that to markets. I don't think it's that can be taught with courses and stuff.

Of course, much of what I'm doing is just high conviction inference based on unconnected parts. Could always be wrong.

[The Assembly @InTheAssembly]

Trump is meeting with US AI executives next week about direct government equity stakes in their companies.

This is going to move markets.

These 10 companies could be the ones they pick:

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: President Trump says the Trump Administration might buy equity stakes in US AI companies and that he will host a meeting with AI executives as soon as next week, per Reuters.

[Lil’ Mafia | ♟️🌵 🌮 @AvivArazi]

So $IREN the full picture in the last 30 days:

🤝 NVIDIA 5GW strategic partnership
💰 NVIDIA $2.1B investment at $70
📄 NVIDIA $3.4B 5yr AI cloud contract
🖥️ DSX digital twin with BE Networks
🖥️ Dell Blackwell $1.6B deal
🇦🇺 Australia 800MW
🇪🇸 Spain 490MW
📈 ARR raised to $4.4B
📊 Every analyst repricing up
💸 GB300 financing secured
🪩 Mirantis

Stock at $62 😐

The market is handing you a gift and calling it a meme stock 😂

[Midnight Capital @Midnight_Captl]

If you’re not down more than 5% today you don’t really want it that bad man