my thought process is very simple
we’re doing something different for the first time in 6 months,
so maybe we get a larger rally than anything we’ve gotten in the past 6 months.
I must look at it that way; if I don’t, it’s probably because I watched an obvious 3yr uptrend breakdown, and wrote articles about how bear markets no longer exist, as I watched many do.
instead, I was the loudest bear on the timeline, dodged -40%+ of the selloff, and bought the absolute bottom of the capitulation into $60k due to having preserved capital along the way
being objective is a superpower.
it’s just long term philosophy; always putting myself in positions to catch, and avoid, the moves that actually matter.
so reclaiming this trend, in addition to breaking out of the range this time around, opens the door for a larger move into $90k, where we can test the same trend which held as bottoms for 3 years [2D 200MAs], and also opened the door for a more aggressive and sustained selloff in recent months
if Bitcoin can’t rally to $90k, as stocks see record-breaking strength into new ATHs, and instead deviates back inside the range…
that would be a ‘signal’ in itself.
it wouldn’t be ‘lag’ at that point, it’d be sustained relative weakness.
goodluck to all.
$ETH breaking back down below our 4H 200MAs
makes sense contextually, as 200DMAs HTF trend resistance is taking priority
$BTC continues to be choppy and boring; never even showed strength to begin with
fun little rally. back to doing nothing though.
Goodluck to all.
$BTC monthly and weekly close today
Monthly failed to hold support
Weekly bear retesting the breakdown level
After having been bearish from 110k and flipping bullish at $84k I'm leaning bearish again at $91k here
Closed my positions and gonna just wait for $100k+ or lower
Waiting for price to reclaim the big key levels the last few months has been huge.
Instead of feeding the ego trying to nail the bottom, you let the tape do the talking, if buyers start taking back pivots, you step in, if it doesn’t, you don’t die on that hill.
Every MASSIVE $BTC rally since March 2023 started from this blue line.
We’re back here again...
If this week closes below $103,000, this cycle might be over.
$ETH update:
Been holding this position for more than a year now
Through significant drawdowns and upswings
Closed it with a 50% gain, don't like how we're chilling on support
Still ok technically unless support fails, I just don't like retests that immediately retest
> "are we in a bear market?"
I really don't care to have this conversation, because it's redundant
lose this trend, and I'll be the loudest and most obnoxious bear on here - same as 2022.
in the meantime, the same principles that allow you to actually call for a bear market and trade it as such(!)...
are the same principles that disallow you to ask that question 87 times before the bear market actually occurs.
$TOTAL
Can we hurry to reclaim the daily EMA trend / not see former support turn resistance please?
Market would look infinitely better if we could do this.