Terminal Junkie

Terminal junkie turned fund manager. Ex-sellside research degenerate still hooked on valuation models and earnings season chaos

[Jukan @jukan05]

LMAO, TrendForce just revealed the entire CoPoS supply chain lol.

[SemiVision 🇹🇼 👁️👁️ @semivision_tw]

The compute tray is the brain of an AI server rack, providing the primary processing logic required for AI workloads. Each compute tray typically contains one or more compute boards, non-volatile memory express (NVMe) solid-state drives (SSDs) for storage, network interface cards (NICs) for connectivity, data processing units (DPUs) for organizing data into discrete processing units, and a power distribution unit (PDU). This tray bears the most expensive, advanced, and most concentrated semiconductor components within a server rack, as it is directly responsible for performance per watt and AI workload throughput.

Source: SIA & Deloitte

[TrendForce @trendforce]

👀1Q26 top-10 foundry revenue defied seasonality, up 3.7% QoQ to a quarterly record. Foundries are preparing 2H26 price hikes as utilization recovers. How will the market respond? 💡More analysis from #TrendForce: https://t.co/eBN461xTyk 🔗

[TrendForce @trendforce]

TSMC's #CoPoS is moving fast, and the opportunities for Taiwan suppliers are taking shape. CoPoS replaces traditional round glass carrier with a square panel format, pushing utilization rates above 75%.
More on glass material development: https://t.co/Na9XtpNK8Q 🔗

[LIWEI_TW Capital @LIWEI_TWCapital]

Key takeaways from Ming-Chi Kuo’s analysis on TSMC CoPoS:

From a Taiwan investor’s perspective, while TSMC is clearly leading the next generation of advanced packaging with CoWoS and the upcoming CoPoS, one of the clearest beneficiaries is ASE Technology Holding ($ASX).

ASE is already expanding panel-level packaging capabilities, including its 310mm × 310mm automated production line. Its advanced packaging platforms such as FoCoS and FoCoS-Bridge are directly aligned with the industry’s shift toward larger and more complex AI/HPC packages.

Bullish on $ASX.

$TSM #CoPoS

[Jukan @jukan05]

《GF Overseas Electronics & Communications》

☄️ CCL: PTFE material adopted for orthogonal backplanes

👉 Nvidia has confirmed the adoption of PTFE as the core material for Rubin Ultra orthogonal backplanes. Below is our related analysis.

☀️ Orthogonal backplanes officially adopt PTFE material

According to our industry-chain checks, the previous M9 + Q-glass cloth solution failed to meet the required electrical performance standards. As a result, PTFE was ultimately selected as the core material for orthogonal backplanes.

PTFE offers excellent high-frequency transmission characteristics, with lower signal loss, and can support 337G and above SerDes signal transmission on the Rubin Ultra platform.
Traditional PTFE materials are relatively soft, making them prone to burr formation during drilling, which creates challenges for mass production. However, the newly developed silicon dioxide, SiO₂, filler-modified PTFE has significantly improved mechanical rigidity. This material has now successfully passed electrical performance testing and mass-production feasibility validation.

☀️ PTFE to gradually replace traditional glass-fiber materials

PTFE CCL no longer uses glass-fiber cloth. The production process involves coating hydrocarbon resin onto the PTFE surface, then directly laminating it with copper foil.

According to our checks, the unit price of the modified PTFE material is around RMB 150,000 per ton, and each CCL sheet uses approximately 800g of PTFE. The selling price of a finished PTFE CCL sheet can reach RMB 2,500.

At present, the final design of the orthogonal backplane has not yet been determined. Candidate designs include mixed-stack combinations of 78-layer and 108-layer structures using PTFE CCL / M9-Q cloth / ABF-filled CCL. The final design is expected to be confirmed in July.

☀️ Summary of PTFE industry-chain beneficiaries

We expect Shengyi Technology, https://t.co/MyWBLDCSCJ, to become the primary supplier of PTFE CCL. Taiflex, https://t.co/J88n54Nui2, is currently in the product qualification stage and has a high chance of becoming a secondary supplier.

On the upstream raw-material side, Dongyue Group, https://t.co/GCCsVNbOdg, is currently Shengyi Technology’s key PTFE raw-material supplier. Daikin, https://t.co/ZAZYazoMw4, and Haohua Chemical, https://t.co/O0itg20aMk, are potential raw-material suppliers.

Based on the initial order scale, the PTFE CCL TAM corresponding to the 2027 Kyber platform could reach RMB 8 billion. Subsequent volume ramp from the Feynman platform is expected to drive additional demand.

Due to the complexity of the manufacturing process, mass production of midplane-related products is expected to begin from the end of 2026.

The new process is also positive for PCB manufacturers. In current HLC PCB products, the ratio of total PCB value to CCL material value is around 2–2.5x. Under the new design, this ratio could rise to 3–3.5x, significantly increasing the product value for PCB manufacturers.

[Vikram Sekar @vikramskr]

NVIDIA actually pushing 200G VCSEL for 10-30m reach?

[Gavin Baker @GavinSBaker]

Super fun chopping it up with Brad, Clark and my colleague Foxy.

[TrendForce @trendforce]

🤔The race to 400-layer NAND is reaching a critical tipping point, and memory giants like #Samsung, #SKhynix, and #Kioxia are pulling out all the stops.

[駿HaYaO @QQ_Timmy]

AI伺服器推升高階MLCC供需吃緊，台灣廠商轉向中國替代
AI伺服器與高壓電動車需求快速成長，正導致全球高階MLCC供應緊俏。供應鏈指出，目前為結構性緊俏而非全面短缺，高電容、高電壓、高可靠度MLCC需求成長超乎預期，部分料號交期已延長至20週以上，甚至更久。

客戶目前更重視供應穩定性，積極建立庫存緩衝，並尋求第二、三供應商。村田製作所與台灣主要廠商採取限制接單策略，而AI資料中心擴建及800V電動車平台推進，更促使下游大廠透過長期協議（LTA）預鎖產能。

中國廠商潮州三環近年積極切入高階領域，稼動率維持高檔，與風華高科同受惠於此波需求轉移。台灣國巨、華新科技仍為主要受惠者，但部分訂單已開始流向中國供應鏈。

相較2018年被動元件大缺貨後的價格反轉，本次廠商嚴控出貨、驗證真實需求，避免庫存過熱。高階MLCC因需先進材料與精密製程，短期難以擴產，預期緊俏局面將持續一至兩年。

[Jukan @jukan05]

▶ AI servers squeeze high-end MLCC supply, sending Taiwan firms toward China alternatives

- Expanding demand from AI servers and high-voltage EVs is tightening the global supply of high-end MLCCs; to cope with lengthening lead times, some Taiwanese supply-chain players are moving to qualify Chinese alternative sources such as Chaozhou Three-Circle.

- Supply-chain sources characterize the current market as a structurally tight phase rather than an outright shortage, with demand for high-capacitance, high-voltage, high-reliability MLCCs for AI servers, HPC, and 800V EV platforms rising faster than expected.

- Lead times for some MLCC part numbers have stretched to more than 20 weeks from prior bookings, with certain products facing even longer delivery schedules.

- Customers are paying more attention to supply stability than to price, and procurement teams are prioritizing inventory buffers and source reliability to reduce the risk of production stoppages.

- Murata and several major Taiwanese suppliers are managing high-end MLCC order intake and shipments on a restricted basis, while the expansion of AI data centers and EV electrification is prompting downstream customers to increasingly secure second- and third-source suppliers.

- Three-Circle, having expanded into high-end MLCCs over the past several years, stands to benefit, and Chinese players such as Three-Circle and Fenghua Advanced Technology are maintaining high utilization rates.

- The "order lock-up" cited across the industry is interpreted not as a halt to new orders but as a prioritized allocation to long-term customers and contracted demand; in the AI server supply chain in particular, CSPs and AI platform customers are pre-empting high-end MLCC capacity through LTAs.

- Rising GPU power consumption is increasing reliance on MLCCs for voltage regulation and filtering inside AI servers; AI server platforms require several times more MLCCs than standard servers, driving the increase in high-end product demand.

- Because the 2018 passive-component shortage was followed by a sharp price reversal after channel over-ordering and inventory build-up, manufacturers in this cycle are managing overheating risk by pacing shipments, verifying real demand, and limiting spot transactions.

- In the MLCC market, commodity products for consumer electronics are recovering toward balance following inventory adjustments, whereas high-end MLCCs for AI servers, data centers, automotive, and industrial applications remain in tight supply-demand conditions.

- High-end MLCCs require advanced material formulations, ultra-thin dielectric processing, and precision multilayer stacking technology, making it hard to close the supply-demand gap quickly through short-term capacity additions; tight supply is expected to persist over the next one to two years.

- Within the Taiwanese supply chain, Yageo and Walsin Technology are expected to benefit, though a portion of demand is also beginning to shift toward the Chinese MLCC supply chain.

[駿HaYaO @QQ_Timmy]

根據TrendForce最新調查，2026年第一季全球Enterprise SSD市場因AI Agent服務普及與CSP強勁拉貨，出現嚴重供需失衡。前五大品牌廠單季營收較上季暴增86.1%，突破184.6億美元，再創歷史新高。

由於供應商庫存已降至歷史低點，產能遠遠追不上訂單成長，各廠積極調漲價格，第一季Enterprise SSD合約價狂飆80%。市場呈現極度賣方市場態勢。

各品牌表現亮眼：
Samsung憑藉供應韌性與製程升級，單季營收達70.5億美元，季增92.8%。其236層產品全面量產，176層QLC大舉出貨，有效緩解CSP近乎倍增的需求壓力。

SK海力士集團（含Solidigm）營收達46.4億美元。Solidigm QLC出貨持續攀升，搭配SK hynix 176層TLC，精準滿足AI Inference需求。Solidigm正加速240層製程，SK hynix更已啟動375層TLC研發。

Micron策略轉型成效顯著，將產能從手機與通路市場大幅轉向Enterprise SSD，本季營收衝上近30.9億美元。Kioxia隨著218層產品通過北美客戶驗證並開始放量，市占率提升，營收達約22.2億美元。目前正擴大驗證245TB QLC產品，預期下半年動能更強。

SanDisk則展現穩健成長，位元出貨量季增20%，營收約14.7億美元。大容量QLC Enterprise SSD已進入出貨階段，將成為後續成長主要動能。

TrendForce指出，SSD已不再只是單純的數據倉庫，而是逐漸承擔「運算輔助」角色。從Micron SLC SSD到Kioxia XL FLASH，各家正推出因應AI Agent高處理量的存儲方案。在DRAM容量瓶頸與高價壓力下，高效能SSD成為市場新選擇，預期2026全年Enterprise SSD市場將維持強勁上升走勢。
https://t.co/NQW5PaWDCv

[Macro_Lin ｜ 市场观察员 @LinQingV]

玻璃和ABF是共存关系。 CoPoS的玻璃核心载板，结构上是玻璃做核心层、上下各覆一层ABF增层。市场上”玻璃取代ABF”的说法跟实际架构对不上，上下两面都要增层，ABF用量大概率是增加的。对Ajinomoto、Ibiden、Unimicron这条链的判断需要修正方向。

互连没有走玻璃中介层路线。 晶片侧靠RDL，载板侧靠TGV和ABF增层各自承接。晶片贴附位置是ABF增层表面，不直接接触玻璃。TGV加上高深宽比的铜填充，是玻璃加工环节的核心难点，良率和成本都在爬坡期，这块的设备和材料供应商值得单独跟踪。

量产时间2H28，Nvidia Feynman可能首发采用。 台积电要解决的核心问题是9.5倍以上光罩尺寸封装的量产经济性。510x515mm的量产面板尺寸意味着这是panel-level packaging路线，从wafer-level到panel-level是制造范式的变化，设备端的供应商格局会跟着重新洗牌。这条路线的能见度大约可以看到2032年。

[SemiVision 🇹🇼 👁️👁️ @semivision_tw]

The development of CPC is not the result of a single company’s technological breakthrough, but rather the co-evolution of an entire industry ecosystem.

At the hardware level, CPC requires high-precision connectors and cable technologies. Companies such as Samtec, Amphenol, and TE Connectivity play critical roles in this space. These suppliers have long provided DAC cables and high-speed connectors for data centers, giving them a strong technological foundation in the CPC era.

#SemiVision #Semiconductor #SiPh #SiliconPhotonics #CPO #Photonics #AI #Insight #Technology

[郭明錤｜Ming-Chi Kuo @mingchikuo]

關於台積電的次世代先進封裝 CoPoS 的幾個關鍵（省略可查詢到的技術細節）：

1. 預計 2H28 量產，目標提升 9.5 倍光罩尺寸以上的封裝之量產經濟性，Nvidia 的 AI 晶片 Feynman 可能將首度採用。

2. 根據產業調查，兩個不同的地方會用到玻璃（尺寸 mm）：
→ 310 x 310 的臨時玻璃載具（glass carrier）
→ 250 x 250（測試）/ 510 x 515（量產）的玻璃面板，加工後切割為玻璃核心載板（glass core substrate）

3. 玻璃核心載板的架構主要分成三層：玻璃作為核心層，上下以 ABF（ABF-GCP）增層包覆。玻璃加工的挑戰，像是TGV（through glass via）、填銅 / 金屬化（metallization）等，指的都是這個階段。

4. CoPoS 常見的錯誤論述：
→ ❌ 錯誤 1：採用玻璃中介層（interposer）。⭕️ 應修正為：玻璃非中介層，其互連角色由晶片側 RDL 與玻璃核心載板側 TGV / ABF 增層分別承接。
→ ❌ 錯誤 2：玻璃取代 ABF。⭕️ 應修正為：如前述的玻璃核心載板架構，玻璃與 ABF 並存。
→ ❌ 錯誤 3：晶片放在玻璃上。⭕️ 應修正為：晶片貼附於玻璃核心載板的 ABF 增層表面。

5. CoPoS 將延續並強化台積電先進封裝的優勢，預期讓該優勢能見度可達約2032年。

[Wall St Engine @wallstengine]

U.S. officials are reportedly pressing China over delays in indium phosphide export approvals, as the material becomes a bottleneck for AI data center buildouts.

Reuters says Coherent CEO Jim Anderson raised the issue during a U.S. business delegation trip to China in May, and it was also discussed in U.S.-China trade talks in Seoul.

FWIW: InP is critical for photonic chips used in high-speed AI infrastructure.

AXT $AXTI says InP export permits are its biggest current challenge.

Coherent $COHR warned of an InP shortage in May.

Lumentum $LITE is reportedly sold out through 2028 despite quadrupling output.

6-inch InP wafer prices are up 250% to around $5,000.

[郭明錤｜Ming-Chi Kuo @mingchikuo]

Key takeaways on TSMC's next-generation advanced packaging, CoPoS (publicly available technical details omitted):

1. CoPoS is currently expected to enter mass production in 2H28. It is designed to improve the economics of ultra-large packages above the 9.5x reticle-size class, with NVIDIA’s Feynman AI chip a potential first adopter.

2. According to industry checks, glass is used in two distinct places (dimensions in mm):
→ 310 x 310 temporary glass carriers
→ 250 x 250 (pilot) / 510 x 515 (mass production) glass panels, processed and later cut into individual glass core substrates

3. The glass core substrate is essentially a three-layer structure: a glass core sandwiched between ABF (ABF-GCP) build-up layers on both sides. The widely discussed glass processing challenges, such as TGV formation and copper filling / metallization, are tied to this part of the stack.

4. Common misconceptions about CoPoS:
→ ❌ Misconception 1: CoPoS uses a glass interposer. ⭕️ Correction: The glass is not an interposer. The interconnect role is instead handled by the chip-side RDL, plus the TGV/Cu interconnects and ABF build-up layers in the glass-core substrate stack.
→ ❌ Misconception 2: Glass replaces ABF. ⭕️ Correction: As the substrate architecture above shows, glass and ABF coexist.
→ ❌ Misconception 3: Chips sit directly on glass. ⭕️ Correction: Chips are attached to the ABF build-up surface of the glass core substrate.

5. CoPoS should extend and reinforce TSMC’s leadership in advanced packaging, potentially giving that advantage visibility through around 2032.

[John Intel @intelfabs]

Very interesting and scary report from Morgan Stanley

The financial engineering behind hyperscaler capex
The truly unsettling part of the AI boom isn’t how much money is being spent
It’s how that money is being engineered through accounting

Hidden liabilities (> $1.8T)
Huge obligations sit off‑balance‑sheet: nearly $1T in purchase commitments, $800B+ in leases not yet started, $2T+ in RPO.
Future cash outflows that don’t show up as debt.

The coming depreciation hit
Profits look good only because spending is stuck in CIP.
Big Tech faces $520B+ in depreciation over 3 years.
ORCL’s depreciation ratio: 7% → 28%.

Supplier financing pressure
Unpaid capex is ~$110B.
ORCL’s DPO exploded from 35 → 170 days.
The whole supply chain is effectively financing the AI build‑out.

Lease accounting gray zones
Whether GPU contracts count as leases or services is subjective — and companies use that flexibility to shift billions on/off the balance sheet.

$ORCL = the most aggressive
Largest lease commitments, RPO up 300%+, capex‑to‑sales hitting 189%.
Oracle is running the highest financial leverage in the ecosystem.

[Jukan @jukan05]

SK HYNIX SELECTS TOKYO ELECTRON EQUIPMENT FOR 375-LAYER NAND DEPOSITION

[bubble boi @bubbleboi]

As much as I hate AAOI, CPO being delayed actually helps them.