Even with the prediction market narrative, it is difficult for me to imagine a long-term positive price action here for @intodotspace with a public sale before any product in a bear market.
I just don't see where the new capital would be coming from.
https://t.co/8aQfBl5lwA
@justpat I think a lot has to do with point farming as well. Yes other products have come out that are arguably better, but people have farmed their @HyperliquidX points and then went on to others like @Aster_DEX and @Lighter_xyz
Taking a look at @intodotspace
It is a 10x prediction market platform.
My concern is how stable prices will actually be in markets with low liquidity.
Wouldn't bigger liquidations cause huge price movements constantly, or will this just be managed by users' arbitraging on other prediction markets?
What if a flash loan and a defi aggregator had a baby?
That's what @HaikuTrade is building, and they just raised $1M led by @BigBrainVC
Problem: Complex defi actions take multiple steps, transactions, across various dapps on different chains.
Think trying to:
- Rebalance a portfolio
- Establish a delta neutral position
- Any institutional grade strategy
An absolute pain in the ass.
Instead of having multiple transactions, being unsure of where to find the best price on spreads, fees, gas, etc., all of these are bundled into the most price-effective, single all-or-nothing transaction, similar to a flash loan.
You can execute these transactions using any of their 3 products:
Haiku Pro: No-code, easy-to-use UI, mapping your transaction path
Haiku Agent: LLM to describe the input and output you want
Haiku API: Developer access for protocol integration
Other projects are similar, but they are one-dimensional, focusing strictly on swaps, bridges, or specific chains.
Haiku simplifies complex defi actions into a single transaction.
@shanaka86 Interesting take. I believe we get some volatility, go back up to test the 200D SMA, then a slow grind down to a bottom some time next year.
@luke_clancy1 Ever thought of turning the newsletter into additional forms of media?
I wonder how Notes To Self turned into highly polished short-form content would perform?
A single Tiktok, IG reel, YouTube short for each edition
Or split up each headline into its own piece of content
Trading Tournaments could be a cool edition.
Here are my thoughts:
I am not sure if other DEXs have experimented with this, but my vision is something like DraftKings DFS, but for perp dex trading. So a set amount of people will buy into a tournament, and then after a set amount of time, the people with the greatest PnL make money. There can be different terms set by the person who makes the tournament (cost of the buy-in, number of people until the tournament is full, payout structures, duration, leverage restrictions, specific RWAs, etc.).
I'm thinking there could also be a "cash-game" type structure as well. If you think of cash games in poker this would work in a similar way. There could be a min-max buy-in. If people want to start with an advantage in the tournament, they can buy in for a greater amount and as a result, will be higher up on the leaderboard at the start of the contest. Other people can buy in for the minimum amount, so these people risk less money, but it will be tougher for them to get "in the money" or win once the tournament ends. In these contests, there wouldn't be a maximum amount of people, but instead, as many people can join until the buy-in threshold is met. i.e. as many people can join until the prize pool hits $1000.
If people want to play aggressively in the "tournament" style structure, they can have multiple entries in the same tournament with different wallet addresses. That way, if one wallet gets "liquidated" (or their "paper money" balance goes to 0 where they can't trade anymore) they can use their other wallet
Could also have a dynamic payout structure such as those that exist in Draftkings. So first place wins a lot of money and it gradually decreases throughout the top x% of entrants. i.e.
1st: $1000
2nd: $500
3rd: $300
4-10th: $100
11-50: $10
This could create interesting dynamics and game theory situations/incentive situations. like if you are in 11th place and it is getting close to the end of the contest, you will be incentivized to be aggressive to get into that next payout bracket.
All these trades would not accrue any trading fees for Silver Koi, since they would all be "paper trading." But, Silver Koi could take a percentage of the prize pool for each tournament. I think this fee percentage could be on a dynamic basis. So for smaller tournaments where the prize pool is let's say $100-1000, the fee that Silver Koi takes would be 1% for example. But for a tournament with a $10,000-100,000 prize pool, the fee might be a lower amount 0.5%. This would incentivize more expensive tournaments since it is more favorable for the player. The lower the percentage Silver Koi takes, the less of a "house edge" exists for the player.
Imagine whales who are really confident in their trading abilities and are willing to go 1v1 against someone else for a large amount. They can put up a 1v1 contest with a $100,000 buy-in. It would be interesting to see these matches and I think the public can learn a lot by watching these matches and the trades that these people make.
If you want to take it one step further, you could create a ranking system as well. People who perform well in tournaments get a ranking. Then you can treat this like a professional sports league. So every once in a while, there will be playoffs for the top-ranked traders in the world. They will compete for a large prize money that is paid out by Silver Koi. This would incentivize people to not create new wallets all the time and not be anonymous since they would want the ability to compete for large prize pools at the end of seasons.
I think this system is great because it allows people to compete directly against other people instead of the greater market per se. Normally in markets, only the top 5-10% of traders are profitable. But in these tournaments, you can create parameters where half of the people double their money while the other half lose their money. This would create an opportunity for people to trade, and more people could be profitable instead of the top 5-10% of people making all of the money.