Oil crashed -23% to $91 in the past 12 hours, the 2nd largest single day crash since march 2020.
Meanwhile:
Nasdaq Futures +2.44%
S&P 500 Futures +2.04%
Dow Futures +1.98%
Gold touching $4,800
Bitcoin trading above $72,000
NEW: FDIC proposes new GENIUS Act rules for stablecoin issuers, covering reserves, redemption, capital, and risk management, while seeking public feedback
The largest IPO in human history, SpaceX, is about to reveal how badly mispriced the rest of the space sector is.
SpaceX confidentially filed for an IPO with the SEC, with a listing expected as early as June 2026. The company is looking to raise up to $75 billion, which would be more than three times the size of the largest US IPO ever.
For context on scale, Alibaba raised $22 billion in 2014, the largest US IPO ever. Saudi Aramco raised $29 billion in 2019, the largest globally.
SpaceX is targeting more than double both of them.
Now here is what makes this different from every other hyped IPO. SpaceX cleared $8 billion in profit on $15 to $16 billion in revenue last year, nearly all of it from Starlink. This is not a company asking you to believe in a future business model.
The business is already profitable at massive scale.
At $1.75 trillion, SpaceX trades at 110 times revenue. Now look at what its smaller competitors trade at.
- AST SpaceMobile: 452 times revenue. Pre-profit.
- Rocket Lab: 62 times revenue. Pre-profit.
Both are partially dependent on SpaceX itself for launches.
When the most profitable company in a sector lists at a lower multiple than its unproven competitors, the market has a problem to resolve. Either SpaceX re-rates higher, or everything else comes down.
History says it is usually the latter.
There is also one risk nobody is talking about loudly enough.
xAI was merged into SpaceX in February and is burning $1 billion a month. The entire IPO pitch is that Starlink's margins can carry xAI's losses long enough for orbital AI data centers to become real. That is a significant bet inside what looks like a straightforward space company listing.
The IPO also includes Starlink at 10 million subscribers; $24 billion in US government defense contracts; X, the social network; and a retail allocation of 30% of shares, three times the Wall Street standard. Elon Musk is deliberately converting his fan base into shareholders.
One final detail.
Nasdaq changed its rules so SpaceX could join the Nasdaq 100 within 15 days of listing. That triggers billions in forced buying from index funds automatically.
This is the most consequential IPO since Facebook. And unlike Facebook in 2012, this one is already printing money.
GOOD:
Thank you to Coinbase for speaking up when it comes to the Clarity Act.
Politicians are bought and paid for by the banks
Retail deserves a chance.
Banks have an issue with paying a few hundred $$$ in passive income, while they profit from YOUR IDLE DEPOSITS
5 minutes before Trump’s announcement:
* $1.5B notional worth of S&P500 (ES) futures are bought in a single clip.
* $192M notional of oil futures (CL) sold.
More than 4x-6x any other trade size during the market close.
Insiders profited from his lies in broad daylight!