America's Biggest Mistake?
A portion of every American's paycheck is deposited into the Social Security trust fund (OASI), which is then invested to create returns that aim to support long-term retirement payments.
Since 1941, OASI has ONLY invested in US treasuries, averaging an annual return of just 4.8%. Meanwhile the S&P500 has been compounding returns at 10.5% per year.
If instead of buying treasuries, OASI bought the S&P500 index starting in 1971 (the year the US went off the gold standard), it would have a $15.1T balance today and Americans would all share ownership of ~1/3 of America's best companies, likely supporting increased retirement benefits, lowering taxes, and reducing Federal debt levels while being the world's largest sovereign wealth fund.
Instead, OASI has a $2.7T balance today and is projected to go bankrupt in 2032, as retirement benefits swell while annual returns on US treasuries held by OASI have shrunk to <3% per year recently.
Many economic inequities in America can be traced back to this structural mistake. By not investing OASI in equities, only privileged Americans with private pensions, 401(k)s, IRAs, and other investment retirement accounts have benefited from the marvel of American capitalism, leaving behind the tens of millions of Americans who had no choice but to rely on Social Security and were left reliant on low-yielding US treasuries.
It is not too late to change. Social Security can still pivot to an equity-driven investment model, driving future balance sheet growth, providing investment capital to American businesses, reducing the dependence on Federal taxes and money-printing, and giving all Americans ownership in America's best businesses.
Rather than create a new sovereign wealth fund, while ignoring the imminent failure of Social Security, legislators can restructure Social Security. By adding ~$500B directly to OASI, investing the entire balance in the S&P 500, and assuming future annual returns of ~10.5%, OASI will grow while also meeting all future retirement obligations, rather than shrink away into insolvency.
The longer we wait to fix Social Security, the more expensive it will become... shifting to an equity-driven investment model now could ensure its long-term viability, address economic inequities across the US, create the world's largest sovereign wealth fund, and give every American ownership and participation in the rewards of American capitalism.
The best CEO advice I received throughout my career:
• customer service is not a department
• sales is the hardest job in any company
• customer focus > competitor focus
• always try to add value and be helpful
• own it and never point fingers
• learn and use people’s names
• show up when it matters most to your customers
• adopt a beginner’s mindset - experts are lifelong learners
• tactics drive strategy - adapt faster
• earn a seat next to your customer, not across from her
• our job is to educate and inspire
• we are all in sales
• stay accessible, curious and humble
• people do business with people they trust, respect and like
• if you are waiting for a title to lead, you are not ready to lead
• the language of business is finance
• there are no IT projects, only business projects
• pay your best people the very best you can
• hire people based on their good judgment and high rate of learning
• in a celebration lead from the back, in a crisis lead from the front
• you are not a team because you work together - you are a team because you trust, respect and care for each other
• to improve the customer experience, start with the employee experience
• you are not taller by making others look smaller
• revenue growth ahead of expenses
• remove bad apples quickly
• leave your desk and spend time with customers
• culture is what happens when the managers leave the room
• tactics drive strategy
• there is nothing more important than our customers
• if you are waiting for a better title to lead, you are not ready to lead
• business is personal - you can be decisive and also be kind, graceful and empathetic
• recognize effort but reward outcomes
• your company is only as good as the company you keep
• your brand is what people say about you when you’re not in the room
• learn to speak your customer’s language
• often remind people that their work matters
• a zero sum mindset limits your growth
• your company is only as good as the company you keep
Is it stupidity or self-loathing when taxpayers pay 13% state tax and get total and complete incompetence?
What are the wins that California residents point to as points of pride to justify the status quo? Said differently, how much economic and ecological destruction do we need to suffer before a majority say enough is enough and break the Democratic cartel that is ruining our beautiful state.
How many more businesses need to leave? How many hi earning residents need to leave? How much further do test scores need to fall? How much more looting and crime do people need to suffer?
I hope this fire is a wake up call that gross taxation, regulation and moral grandstanding doesn’t equate to effective governance. In fact it enables the exact opposite.
California is riddled with grossly ineffective politicians and bureaucrats.
Much like with alcoholism, the cure starts with deprivation. Giving these people less resources is the critical first step. The second is to replace them, writ large, with people who are resourceful and smart. Find operators willing to spend a few years away from private industry to run our critical organizations.
An entire batch of new people with some modicum of operational experience will then prove what many other places already know: you can do more with less by being transparent, accountable and experienced.
Not experienced in grift, corruption and politics. But experienced in results, metrics and accountability.
This Christmas Eve, as we gather with loved ones, it’s worth pausing to reflect on what it truly means to be part of a community. Recently, we saw a horrifying incident on the NYC subway where a woman was set on fire—and no one stepped up to help. This is a moment for us to ask ourselves: Have we lost the essence of what it means to be Americans and neighbors?
I’ve been raising alarms about an impending homeland attack by Al-Qaeda, but the deeper question is this: If tragedy strikes, will we rise to the occasion? Will we render aid as so many heroes did on 9/11, or will we stand idly by, letting fear or indifference paralyze us?
Our nation’s strength has always been rooted in community—helping one another, stepping up in times of crisis, and focusing on what truly matters. But right now, it feels like we’re letting each other down. We’re letting our communities fail.
This Christmas, let’s commit to being better. Let’s focus on what truly matters: each other. We can’t afford to turn away when someone is in need.
We face enemies, but the real threat comes when we forget that our greatest weapon is our unity. Wishing you all peace, love, and the strength to rebuild and fortify our communities in the year ahead.