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Warsh wants price stability but the market is calling his bluff! We just tipped into a deflationary backdrop.
The ratio at the bottom of the chart below shows real rates skyrocketing on the FOMC release today. (Nominal Rates vs. Breakeven Inflation).
Nominal rates are rising as inflation is falling.
If this keeps going higher, financial markets will crash pretty hard as liquidity gets sucked out of the system.
Warsh even said policy is restrictive for housing, so he does not want this outcome.
The Fed is now behind on Easing, there is zero chance they tighten here.
The dollar breaking out could unwind the carry trade too.
They'll have to reverse course hard.
@Globalflows@jaymesrosenthal@crossbordercap
Casi tiro la toalla pensando que el trading era más random que una tragaperras.
Me pasé semanas buscando una regla automática que ganara sola. Probé 4 modelos y varios indicadores. Cero ventaja mecánica en todos. Concluí que era puro azar. Entonces monté un medidor que parte mis sesiones del mes en dos:
- Días con proceso respetado
- Días con proceso roto
Mismas semanas, mismo mercado:
Proceso respetado: 86% de días en verde, y de media gano (a la larga, sale a favor).
Proceso roto: 50% de días, y de media pierdo.
Ahí cayó la ficha. No es una tragaperras. Mi ventaja no es una fórmula automática, es la lectura del mercado en vivo. Lo que me hunde no es que me falte ventaja, es romper mis putas reglas. Dejé de buscar el santo grial mecánico.
Sigo aprendiendo.
$btc
News does not move markets
News does not impact markets
News does not influence markets...
...they way you think it does, but in the opposite way.
By the time the news arrives, the move is already done.
We have shown it in real time, and we traded it in real time.
Main trade I took from today was a short term counter trend trade long. Came into the session with a short bias due to YDAY and OVN session.
Got to discussing the trade with @jestertrading33 and another member in his discord and was reflecting.
We as traders don’t get paid to sit in front of the computer all day but for the opportunity we spot in the moment and how quickly/efficiently we can capitalize on that opportunity.
As that trade began to present itself, I had a decision to make. Take it even though it’s against my bias on the day or leave it.
What made me click the button to enter the trade aside from my trade reasons and orderflow? A simple question, "if this is within my setup will I be happy if I skip the trade and it ends up working out?" Answer was no.
The psychology aspect was just as important here as much as the trade setup was for me. A common mistake I used to make and I think many beginner traders make is they skip the trade, see it start to work in their favor and then end up chasing trying to get in wherever leading to over trading. "Damn I knew it was going to work."
The over trading didn’t start after taking multiple attempts to enter and getting stopped, it started when they failed to ask themselves if they were truly okay with the risk of letting it run without them. The opportunity cost IMO is just as important of a “risk" to consider as much as a monetary risk. It’s a fine line.
Systemizing your entry framework can help take the emotions out.
In my case, I wasn’t okay seeing it work out without me because my system told me I should take the trade alongside a couple extra confluences. I don’t know whether it will work out in my favor or not, I just know I see my parameters lining up for an entry so I need to execute. The rest is out of my hands.
True Liquidity Sweeps
Highs and lows are liquidty pools where stops and resting orders cluster together. Markets seek these to facilitate transactions.
They get taken out all the time, but the real signal comes from the reaction after: acceptance leads to continuation whereas failure leads to traps and reversals.