Friedmo

Accepting funding for FUD

[Jeff Dorman @jdorman81]

Prediction markets are supposed to be about truth discovery. Last week showed what happens when incentives, capital structures, and market design collide with reality.

In this week’s That’s Our Two Satoshis, I cover two very different stories that both revolve around a simple question:

What happens when markets stop functioning the way participants expect?

First, I revisit the fallout from Strategy ($MSTR )’s first Bitcoin sale in four years. The sale itself was tiny (just 32 bitcoin:native ) but that wasn’t the point. The market reaction reflected growing concern that Strategy may eventually need to sell significantly more Bitcoin to satisfy its preferred dividend obligations or sell significantly more MSTR at non-accretive levels. My argument for the past three months has been that the risk is in the cash dividends. Once the market realizes the world’s largest Bitcoin buyer could become a forced seller, the narrative changes dramatically.

Second, I dive into what may become one of the most damaging events in prediction market history. A @Polymarket contract asked whether MicroStrategy would sell Bitcoin by May 31. Strategy later confirmed it had sold Bitcoin during that period. Yet the contract resolved NO, wiping out traders who correctly predicted the outcome. Nearly $400 million was wagered on the market, and the controversy raises a much bigger question: if prediction markets can resolve against reality because of technicalities and oracle mechanics, are participants actually betting on future events, or just on how a platform will interpret its own rules?

Prediction markets have enormous potential, and I’m a believer in the sector’s future. But credibility is everything. Markets can survive being wrong. They can’t survive losing trust.

[Friedmo @_Friedman1]

@ChrisBarrett @SergeyNazarov $link i just want to thank the team so much for their contributions, they would never steer us wrong, power of truth! Chainlink!

[Friedmo @_Friedman1]

$link $eth $btc such cheap prices but yet a complete lack of demand? maybe your definition and markets definition of cheap differ?

[Friedmo @_Friedman1]

$btc $link guys it’s simple, bitcoin is going down, these chops and bounces are only to short squeeze or sucker in new longs, they have to show bounces or people won’t be interested

[Friedmo @_Friedman1]

$link any of you wonder why link price isn’t available on prediction markets? think hard

[Friedmo @_Friedman1]

$link last chance to sell near 8 get the fuck out- you are all prob thinking aww link strong it can withstand, it will wilt eventually always does- let me let you in on a secret, this is part of the market maker scam they run on link. no prediction markets on link- think abt that

[Friedmo @_Friedman1]

$link @SergeyNazarov Hey sergey you a marine bro or you gonna sell more by end of month at lows bc you still think this is a good price - hahahaha link bulls

[Friedmo @_Friedman1]

$btc $link $eth if you think this selloff is bc of the over priced space ipo you get what you deserve bc your a sheep

[Friedmo @_Friedman1]

@HodlMagoo they have you thinking the selling is bc of the ipo, anyone saying that is 100% retail it’s too dummy

[Friedmo @_Friedman1]

$btc $eth $link bitcoin currently is a boulder rolling down hill, it only stops when it crashes, there is nothing as of today that can prevent this and it’s just picking up further momentum and driving more out of favor, call it capitulation but you also got a buyer problem

[Friedmo @_Friedman1]

$btc $link $eth WHITE HOT CPI tmrw

[Friedmo @_Friedman1]

@MirkRoot @itsmebutterz high fifa tickets/ record nba champ prices/ record copper / cocoa other inputs - you don’t get more signs, watch. news all about broke people and high costs of living

[Friedmo @_Friedman1]

@MirkRoot @itsmebutterz chart has broken down and we’re gonna get white hot inflation as the big boom to swing the lever get it son

[Friedmo @_Friedman1]

$btc $link $eth heavy like anchor

[Friedmo @_Friedman1]

@MirkRoot @itsmebutterz we rolling again add

[Friedmo @_Friedman1]

@NotARobot004 @GaryCardone imagine when you roundtrip btc from 800-62k-800 the look on your stupid face ooo my

[Friedmo @_Friedman1]

$link $eth $btc $sol bots playing stupid games, the direction into white hot cpi is decided

[Friedmo @_Friedman1]

@NotARobot004 @GaryCardone if eth dipped to $1k never went to $809 and flatlined for the next five years, you’d buy and be happy that’s how stupid you are

[Derin Olenik @BigpictureBTC]

$MSTR is the most intelligently designed ponzi, using the most intelligently designed asset to attract capital from the most unintelligently designed investors.

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

The real reason they don’t want voter ID is to commit voting fraud. That is the obvious truth.