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“Not much to hold it up…”
Controlled construction = price increase with a lack of imbalances in price forming on higher time frames.
When these happen it typically leads to low resistance liquidity runs later on as there are no bullish levels to catch price.
Always before it happens 🔮
“Some people feel the rain, others just get wet”
$SPY $QQQ
Here’s a clip from March
bitcoin:native
Why was I not sold on the current low?
Quarterly sellside below and the fact that there was absolutely no higher time frame urgency to move higher (aka no bullish imbalance) price tags a monthly bearish imbalance and folds…
Extremely controlled construction which leads to a low resistance run for liquidity.
Is overnight price action worth taking into consideration?
According to @edgeful over the last month, If $ES is green in the overnight session, that day's candle closes green 67% of the time, while a red overnight session leads to a red daily candle 50% of the time. Just because we are sleeping doesn't mean the markets aren't open for the rest of the world!
One of my favorite @edgeful stats...
The initial balance refers to the range from 9:30 AM to 10:30 AM EST. If price breaks one side of that range, that counts as a single break. If it were to break both, that would be a double break.
On $TSLA - 81% of the time over the last 6 months price has only broken one side of the IB. From this report you can conclude that it is unlikely for price to break both sides of the initial balance, aiding in holding winners or avoiding low probability trades in the opposing direction.
Thinking about swinging $NVDA?
Data from @edgeful shows that over the last 6 months, NVDA opened between the previous day's high and low 70% of time. This tells us that NVDA likes to move during the NY session, and not as much overnight.
This information allows us to avoid the theta burn!
We did not create any daily bullish imbalances last week after the initial gap higher for the first time in months.
This suggests that from a lower time frame perspective, if price were to run out of gas and begin to create lower time frame bearish imbalances, there wouldn't be much holding it up for about 700 points, which is last week's new week open gap.
While at this exact moment there is absolutely nothing showing any signs of a retracement (yet), I don't love the lack of urgency in price over the last week.
$SPY $QQQ