”S&P 500 returns this decade:
2020 +18.4%
2021 +28.8%
2022 -18.2%
2023 +26.2%
2024 +24.9%
2025 +17.8%
2026 +10.7% (so far)
15.7% annualized for the 2020s and nothing close to a boring year yet”
-Ben
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The same thing that helped my first newsletter, The Pristine Day Trader, spread across trading floors in the 1990s is still true today:
Great ideas want to travel.
Issue #013 is live.
Monthly RSI just printed its 2nd-lowest cycle low in Bitcoin's history.
→ https://t.co/x3KW9uASID
I want to introduce you to Steve. He’s 83. His wife died a few months ago and he comes to this lodge in Spring Mill, Indiana and draws. He taught art in Terre Haute, IN his whole life. He also did courtroom sketches in court cases. In the comments I’ll share some pics from his sketchbook. He was excited when I said I was going to share his sketches with the world.
@carlbildt We won’t.
And isn’t it some kind of mystery, when young men from all over the world are celebrating in the big games, one is absent.
After 85 years.
@MFAestonia
This post by @DavidSacks about the Anthropic/Fable situation is noteworthy, but not for the reason most people think.
Put the details aside for a second.
Anthropic released a blog post with their side of the story a few hours ago. David is responding with a bullet point list in a tweet about a different side of the story.
Years ago both sides would be jockeying to get mainstream reporters to tell their version of the truth and the American public would be fed some edited narrative that was filtered through a bureaucratic media organization.
That world doesn't exist anymore.
Now both sides share their versions publicly so the American people can hear directly from them. It is up to the individual citizens to make up their mind who they believe.
I haven't read a single article about the situation, but rather just read the various players' statements.
Fascinating how fast the world has changed.
Suunnittelen remonttia. Kysymyksiä: kuuluuko gluteenittomat pakastetuotteet olla samassa paikassa muiden gluteenittomien tuotteiden kanssa vai erikseen pakasteosastolla? Pitääkö gluteenittomat tuoreet leivät olla leipäosastolla vai gluteenittomat osastolla? Mielipiteitä näihin.
”When someone changes the locks on my door, my key loses the ability to open my door, but no physical signal travels from my new door lock to my key, causing that key to fail to unlock the new door!
This is how bitcoin is “sent.”
-Troy
Verkkokaupassa on pieni erä mustia takuuhuollettuja VMK20 kuulokkeita. Tietäjät tietävät valmistuksen loppuneen, joten laitteita saa enää vain käytettyinä.
Jos odotat alennusmyyntejä, odotat turhaan. Valco ei harrasta alennuksia, koska tuotteemme on hinnoiteltu valmiiksi oikein. Joten alennusmyyntien odottaminen on turhaa. Musta perjantai on pelkkää kuluttajien huijaamista.
Nämä kunnostetut yksilöt ovat käytännössä ainoa keino saada kuulokkeemme halvemmalla. Laitteet ovat tulleet meille vaihtohyvityksellä ja huoltokätyrit ovat korjanneet ne uudenveroisiksi. Me emme kunnosta kuulokkeita kirjoittaaksemme mainoksiin hienolta kuulostavia vastuullisuuslauseita. Teemme sitä siksi, että käyttökelpoisen tavaran roskiin heittäminen on typerää.
Koska luotamme kätyreiden työhön, laitteissa on täysi kahden vuoden takuu. Jos ne hajoavat, Hannes joutuu korjaamaan ne uudestaan. Musta väri myydään yleensä aina loppuun muutaman päivän aikana. Pitkiä mietintätaukoja ei ole tarjolla. Nopeimmat voittavat.
When Nokia engineers examined the original iPhone in the summer of 2007, they found a 2-megapixel camera with no flash, no autofocus, and no video. Their flagship phone, released three months earlier, had a 5-megapixel Carl Zeiss lens (the optics brand used in Leica cameras), autofocus, an LED flash, and video recording. Nokia beat Apple on every camera specification. Nokia also no longer makes phones.
Apple's advantage came from three engineering decisions, none of which appeared on a spec sheet. Speed was the first. Nokia's camera took 6 seconds just to open the app, with the whole process reaching 8 seconds before a first photo could be taken. Apple chose fixed focus deliberately, locking the lens at a fixed point where anything from arm's length to the horizon stays sharp. With the autofocus delay gone, the whole process took under 2 seconds from pocket to saved photo. For the actual photos people take of people and places, that speed was worth more than 3 extra megapixels.
The second decision was matching resolution to the actual use case. A 2-megapixel image is 1,600 by 1,200 pixels. The iPhone's own screen in 2007 was 320 pixels wide. The most common destination for a camera phone photo was a text message or an email with a file size limit. Apple sized the sensor for where photos were going, not for what looked best on a product box.
The third decision was the path from shutter to shared. Sharing a photo on the Nokia N95 meant opening the image, pressing Options, choosing Send, picking Bluetooth or email or a picture text, and working through sub-menus from there. On iPhone, every photo went straight into a built-in album, swipeable with a finger, emailable in two taps. Apple designed the camera as a communication tool first.
Nokia held roughly half of global smartphone sales in 2007. By 2013, that number had collapsed to single digits. Microsoft bought Nokia's phone business for $7.2 billion and wrote off virtually the entire investment as a loss within 15 months. Digital camera shipments peaked at 121 million units in 2010 and fell 94% by 2023. Apple became the company most closely linked to the phrase "digital camera" in media analysis by 2013, built from a sensor that lost to Nokia on paper.
The Nokia engineers who analyzed that first iPhone were right that the numbers didn't add up. The market had simply stopped counting them.
Romauttiko pörssiyhtiön 32 bitcoinin myynti koko bitcoinmarkkinan?
En tiedä ollaanko hulluja vai neroja, mutta tehtiin Bunkkerissa tähän väliin syväsukellus Strategyyn vaikka sentimentti on montussa ja bitcoin on kuollut. Vieraana oli sijoittaja ja treidaaja @celestal21, joka on seurannut Strategyn matkaa sen ensimmäisistä bitcoinostoista lähtien. Strategyn pääomien keruu on viime aikoina siirtynyt vaihtovelkakirjalainoista etuoikeusosakkeisiin, joita markkinoidaan nimellä "digital credit". Tähän osastoon paneuduttiinkin ajan kanssa.
Strategyä voisi kuvailla lentokoneeksi, jota rakennetaan lentäessä. Koneen kapteenina ja pääinsinöörinä on @saylor ja matkustajina kantaosakkeen ja etuoikeusosakkeiden omistajat. Jos lentotaito ei ole riittävä tai insinöörityö menee pieleen, kone tulee tonttiin ja kovaa. Toisaalta, jos uhkapeli onnistuu sekä Strategyn arvio bitcoinin pitkän aikavälin arvonnoususta toteutuu, malli voi ainakin kyydissä olevien mukaan tarjota parhaimmillaan asymmetrisia tuottoja.
Kuvaushetkellä Miika ei omista Strategyn osakkeita.
Juteltiin lisäksi muistakin bitcoin treasury -yhtiöistä, bitcoinin potenssilaista, markkinasykleistä ja sivuttiin itävaltalaista taloustiedettä.
”When someone changes the locks on my door, my key loses the ability to open my door, but no physical signal travels from my new door lock to my key, causing that key to fail to unlock the new door!
This is how bitcoin is “sent.”
-Troy
My bullish/bearish take on bitcoin is that we shouldn’t blame any entity for buying too much of it, because if bitcoin can be killed by an entity buying it, then it wasn’t meant to be.
If all it takes to kill bitcoin is a bullish entity that likes it enough to buy, then go home.