I believe BTC well might be above 100k before the end of 2026
The bullish momentum has already begun, few corrections on the way & UP we go...lets see how this plays out
The agentic activities launchpad on @base including 200$ giveaway
Now officially live, with a weekly USDC reward pool for the 300 most active agents.
One click spins up your agent. It takes a quest, buys inference from @BlockRunAI over x402 on @base, does the work, and settles onchain. A paying customer of the machine economy from task one.
First quest up: Verdict. Point your agent at any contract address and get a verdict card back. Quests cost cents - rerun as often as you want. Oracle is next.
๐ Weโre also hosting a $200 giveaway for 20 users - $10 each
How to enter:
- Follow @ax1vc and @gautamguptagg
- Try the platform: https://t.co/3Cd1ef05Fc
- Comment anything below
Winners will be announced within 24 hours.
Soo
Clarity act advancement got rejected
Fed hiked rates & signalled another hike soon this year
Yet crypto is still pumping that too in the weekend
Guess we all know what that means ๐
But still.......
( Red soon? ) ( Or the opposite? )
Let us wait and watch
Crypto market hasnt absorbed the failure of Clarity Act fully yet
And we are already on the verge of another setback
Why? Feds are all set to announce a rate hike today
( 90%+ odds on Fedwatch)
What'd your opinion? Are we going further down
The next level to watch is 71K, it it doesn't hold we are all set to revisit lower levels
Or will market give us all a surprise & rally again ๐
All eyes on FOMC today !
Familiar with a new way to trade Gold Volatility?
If not, we are talking about trading tokenized gold & profit from volatility that happens due to geopolitical events
What is XAUT? Tether gold, it gives you exposure to the price of physical gold through a blockchain based asset
And with XAUT options on @CoinDCX, you can trade a view on where gold can move without simply buying XAUT
( DYOR,NFA ;Educational content strictly)
Why is this interesting right now?
US federal meeting (sep15-16) is a major catalyst for gold
Gold is currently under pressure from a stronger $, higher treasury yields, fed policy expectations etc
But geopolitical tensions are keeping demand of safe havens like gold high
-This situation creates volatility
Gold does have a short term downside risk due to more tightening signals from FEDS
Now suppose if this is my view , how do I express it?
Using XAUT options chain
In the picture below, XAUT is trading at $4297.82, expiry 15 hours, strike - 4300 PUT & mark price 21.20$
Why did I choose this strike?
โข Because $4300 is almost exactly at current price of xaut, so the option gives me direct exposure to a downside move
โข If xaut falls below the strike, put starts gaining intrinsic value ( but if it stays above 4300 at expiry, contract expires worthless, thats the risk)
Daily & weekly expiry
You can clearly see Sep 16 & 18 expiries below
Daily expiry = less time for your thesis to play
Weekly expiry = more time but high premium
So if your thesis is short term , choose daily! If need more time to play out, go for weekly
โญ These options are interesting as they create another way to express your view on gold volatility + with zero trading fee , smaller lot sizes ; traders have more flexibility in sizing their positions
Before entering a trade, compare
Strike - expiry - premium - potential payoff - maximum risk
Geopolitical events can move it quickly to either side, its about choosing the right strike/expiry & risk for the move you actually expect
Explore & comment your thesis below ๐
#LearnKaroCryptoKaro
Ever wondered how 2 calls with the same expiry can hav totally different risk factors?
Welcome to yet another part of Learning Options Trading In Crypto
#LearnKaroCryptoKaro
- Familiar with Call options? It allows you to buy an asset at strike price before or at expiry
If you are bullish on BTC - buying a call means you are predicting an upside
โญ Important factor, strike price you choose can completely change your trade
To explain it better, I am choosing 2 call options from @CoinDCX ; both have same asset & same expiry but different strike prices
1. 77,250 Call
(Premium:$277.78 , Breakeven: $77527.78)
2. 77,750 Call
(Premium:$41.58 , Breakeven:$77791.58)
Expiry is same roughly 2.5 hours
But then why is the 77,750 Call almost 7X cheaper? Because strike price is higher
It is already in the money ( close to current spot price), while 77750 is OTM (out the money) with no intrinsic value
Lets suppose BTC moves to 78k at expiry
Call Intrinsic value Profit
77250 750 472.22
77750 250 208.42
Both make money, but cheaper call isnt automatically the better trade
$BTC needs to move another 328$ from its current price just to make 77,750 Call profitable, but lower strike call just need 64$ more
โข Lower strike - higher premium - lower move required - high chance of profit
โข Higher strike - much cheaper - larger move required - low chance of profit
Options interface in Coindcx can be used to compare strikes, premiums , breakeven levels & market implied probability in few clicks
This all can help us a lot before entering a Call trade
My bullish thesis?
I expect it to move up but if i want a higher probability trade without caring about high premium, 77250 call makes more sense
If i expect a quick move, 77750 call gives me much lower exposure & high upside potential
But remember if BTC doesnt mak the required move, option can expire worthless thats the risk, always dyor nfa
TL,DR?
Maximum loss for call buyer? Premium cost
Dont ask yourself which call is cheaper, compare ๐
Strike+premium+breakeven+
probability+risk/reward
Cheapest one isnt the best, its the one that best matches the move you actually expect BTC to make
The new iPhones(18,18pro,foldable) are here ๐
But but but... does that automatically mean AAPL( Apple's stock) goes up? Well that depends....
Let us analyse ๐
#LearnKaroCryptoKaro
First of all we need to understand why such major launches can influence respective stock's prices
If you look at the revenue of the business, 50% comes from iphones & even more when you count services (26%) but services are still much profitable than devices itself
A successful launch = stronger sales, higher revenue and better future earnings expectations
โญBut markets trade on expectations so even a great product can disappoint investors if the good news was already priced in
So a succesful launch doesnt mean stock will always go up
-Expectations vs reality
This year's launch had plenty of expectations going into it around the new foldable iPhone, pricing, AI features & demand
โข Strong launch + expectations already high = the stock still needs fresh evidence
โข The rate hikes also add to the possible bullish case for the stock but mostly news like these are priced in already
Now look at the AAPL chart ๐
On Sep 9, AAPL closed around $315.34 approx, falling 0.28% on launch day itself
Then on September 10, it jumped 3.56% to $326.57 - followed by another 1.75% gain + to $332.27 on Sep 11
Have been around that range since....
So right now, the post-launch momentum is obviously strengthening not fading
- A clean break & hold above these areas would show that buyers are still willing to chase the move
But is the launch hype enough?
For the move to continue, the story has to show up in the numbers
Things to watch
- Iphone pre-orders + sales
- Consumer demand at higher prices
- Apple's revenue
- Margins + supply
- Investor expectations around AI
Market cares more about what the launch does to Apple's future earnings
So whats our trade thesis?
Bullish case
- AAPL holds above the post-launch breakout area, continues making higher highs/higher lows + breaks through the $336โ$345 zone
Bearish case
- The stock fails to hold the post launch gains, gets rejected around resistance + starts making lower highs
That's the difference between trading the headline & trading the price action
โข For the bullish setup, confirmation would be sustained trading above the recent highs with continued momentum
โข If AAPL breaks back below the post-launch support zone & momentum starts weakening, then bulls will loose momentum
Once you have a view on
AAPL, you can use the tokenised US stock setup to express that view through long or short positions & leverage
Platforms like @CoinDCX provides ability to trade tokenised AAPL with leverage helping you take position on where Apple stock goes next..NFA
Leverage can amplify both gains & losses ,so position sizing + risk management matters , always do your own research
The takeaway?
A great iPhone launch is not equal to automatic green stock move
What matters is:
Expectations - actual results - prediction
If Apple delivers more than the market expected, the upside story can strengthen
If expectations were already too high, even a successful launch can eventually lead to profit taking