tobi

27|Austria

[tobi @_Tobix_]

@fytbvro @HatTrickChris Argentinas group was one of the hardest based on the average elo fyi. This is really one of the worst examples to prove your point.

[tobi @_Tobix_]

@NoahWulf @ManuThiele Genauso wars gegen Österreich auch. Ohne Foul vom argentinischen Spieler erobern sie den Ball gar nicht und schießen das Tor nicht. Var hat da gegen Argentinien aber nicht eingegriffen - das ist sein Punkt

[tobi @_Tobix_]

@barryfoster_pb @WombleWorldBlog @AdamCrafton_ @JacquiOatley @TheAthleticFC @Dan_Sheldon_ you just proved that you have no idea. the referee cant decide when a play should be reviewed. The var and the fifa rules decide when a play is reviewed

[tobi @_Tobix_]

@NoJayskers @TommyPCGarrett @HausenKS no this just proves that fifa is corrupt.

[tobi @_Tobix_]

@__KINGKRAKEN__ @TFaithful57655 @TedBuddy8 he only looked at the goalkeeper most of the time. He didnt care about the ball - I think you should watch the video again.
I would have loved to see germany advance but that was the correct call

[Alphatica @alphaticaio]

MARKET MECHANICS LESSON:

Why MRVL Crashed Into the Close

Yesterday MRVL ran from ~$305 to ~$329 by mid-afternoon. Then it fell $19 in 10 minutes and crossed at $310.58. No news. No earnings miss. No downgrade. Pure mechanics. Here's what happened and why it matters.

THE SETUP: INDEX INCLUSION ARBITRAGE

When a stock gets added to a major index, passive funds are required to buy it at the closing price on inclusion day. They have no choice. They must own it by the close. Everyone knows this in advance.

Arbitrage firms exploit this. In the days leading up to inclusion, they accumulate shares before the passive funds are forced to buy. Then they sell into the guaranteed demand at the close. The profit is the spread between their entry price and the closing cross.

THE MRVL TRADE:

June 15-17: Arb desks accumulated roughly $20-30B of MRVL inventory through dark pools. Blended cost: approximately $290-300.

Yesterday morning: MRVL ran from $305 to $329. Momentum traders and short-covering piled in ahead of the inclusion print. The arbs sat on their inventory and watched the price rise. Every dollar higher was additional profit on their position.

3:50 PM: The MOC (Market on Close) imbalance feed published. This is the official number that tells the market how much net buying the passive funds need at the close. The imbalance indicated $5-8B of net buying needed.

THE PROBLEM: The arbs had $20-30B of inventory to sell. The passive funds only needed $5-8B. There were 3-4x more sellers than buyers.

3:50-4:00 PM: The arbs recognized the mismatch instantly. They started selling aggressively on the lit order book to clear inventory before the close. They couldn't wait for the 4:00 PM cross because there wasn't enough passive demand to absorb their full position. MRVL dropped from $327 to $310 in 10 minutes.

4:00 PM cross: $310.58. The passive funds got their full allocation at this price. The arbs unloaded the bulk of their inventory. Still profitable. They bought at $290-300 and sold at $310. But significantly less profitable than $327.

4:01-4:14 PM: The remaining $10B+ of residual inventory cleaned up through dark pool and swap structures at the official close mark.

THE OPTIONS TELL:

At 3:33 PM, with MRVL trading at $327.62, someone bought $310 puts expiring that same day for $0.24. Those puts were 5.4% out of the money with 27 minutes until expiration. On any normal day, that's a lottery ticket that expires worthless.

Those puts went deep in the money. MRVL crossed at $310.58. The $310 strike was at the money at the close. A $0.24 option became valuable in 27 minutes because the buyer understood the inclusion mechanics that were about to unfold.

THE LESSON:

This wasn't manipulation. It wasn't a crash. It was the predictable resolution of an arbitrage supply-demand imbalance.

The passive funds created guaranteed demand. The arbs front-ran that demand. The arbs accumulated more inventory than the demand could absorb. The MOC imbalance revealed the mismatch at 3:50 PM. The arbs sold into each other trying to exit first. The price fell to the level where supply met demand.

Every index inclusion event has this dynamic. The magnitude depends on the gap between arb inventory and passive fund demand. When the arbs overestimate the demand (or over-accumulate inventory), the closing cross is violent. When the sizes match, the cross is orderly.

The flow told the story before the price did. The dark pool accumulation over three days mapped the arb inventory. The MOC imbalance at 3:50 PM revealed the mismatch. The options market at 3:33 PM showed someone positioning for the exact outcome. The mechanics were visible to anyone watching the right data.

This is why we track flow, not headlines. The mechanic says: index arbs over-accumulated and the MOC imbalance was too small to absorb them. Same result. Different understanding. Different edge next time.

$MRVL $SMH $QQQ

[tobi @_Tobix_]

@StoryTrading @pennycheck what has trump achieved? that everything got more expensive and everyone losing trust in the US as a partner?

[tobi @_Tobix_]

@Danizeh Well everyone can leave for Dubai (I dont care) but these people should not come back to europe for the benefits of the social system (health system, cheap education, pension system and so on) or demand help from the governments they left. It's UAE's problem now

[tobi @_Tobix_]

@mbsdls723 @WarveleyViolet @DeItaone why would iran bomb EU?

[tobi @_Tobix_]

@peonyKingOF Then maybe set up defense systems there - Denmark has no problem with that. The US doesnt need to attack greenland to defend themselves

[tobi @_Tobix_]

@keithbacker @mariatad You realize that your "ally" Hungary is the one purchasing oil from russia - so how exactly is hungary more an ally than the EU?

[tobi @_Tobix_]

@itsatweete23806 @Mr__Rational @BluuuuuJay @hmassbets @kiiLkenny @DKSportsbook in this case for example the assist was taken from queen and added to zion, as it should because it was zion's assist. You really have no idea what you are talking about - they dont randomly decide to remove stats. They always give it to someone else

[tobi @_Tobix_]

@itsatweete23806 @BluuuuuJay @hmassbets @kiiLkenny @DKSportsbook you are just lying. Do you have any proof that more stats are taken away than they are added? Most of the time they take away an assist from someone and give it to someone else

[tobi @_Tobix_]

@kiiLkenny @nbastats @DKSportsbook If they decrease someones stat, they obviously increase someone else. Do you even know what you are talking about?

[tobi @_Tobix_]

@kiiLkenny @nbastats @DKSportsbook obviously it should be corrected because it wasnt his assist. He didnt even touch the ball once in that play.

[tobi @_Tobix_]

@propmoneysniper @nbastats how is this still not fixed? @nbastats @NBAStatsAudit

[tobi @_Tobix_]

@Stake hello can you add player props for the football game Ohio State vs Indiana Hoosiers?

[tobi @_Tobix_]

@statkeeperfan @nbastats @nbastats Can you please fix that?

[tobi @_Tobix_]

@sicknasty321 @nbastats this is a disgrace @nbastats

[tobi @_Tobix_]

@PavFPS did kyle screw you over as well?