Max

[Max @__Max__S__]

People investing into indexes(SP500, Nasdaq) long term do make money easily, but the % of Robinhood users doing that nowadays is pretty low, and much much lower than 30 years ago.

Thus why you see things like 0DTE options being the majority of the volume in SPX. Most of of the volume on Robinhood specifically is degen trading from uniformed people who have little experience.

[Max @__Max__S__]

Yea, 50% of SPX volume being 0DTE options, new agentic AI trading on robinhood, Virgin Galactic going up 200% because people think its the SpaceX ticker are all totally not gambling. List goes on and on.

There is in fact a lot of glorified gambling nowadays amongst retail, and 98% of retail that " actively trades" is probably losing money on Robinhood.

[Max @__Max__S__]

@Passhole69 Great song, especially in the summer on July 4th👀

[Max @__Max__S__]

@DataBasedBets This isn't an Nvidia stock lol, not sure what they are trying to do.

Sports/prediction markets still have far less volume and anything below a 0.5c spread will drive regular MM or liquidity providers away.

[Max @__Max__S__]

@dan_bernstein_ The most important things they need is an orderbook, visible volume & liq.

Any exchange/prediction market that doesn't have that is unusable and can't be taken seriously.

[Max @__Max__S__]

@RJCcapital The entire financial industry has largely turned into glorified gambling, even stuff like Robinhood, that's just the modern reality.

Them IPO'ing would have nothing to do with a top.

[Max @__Max__S__]

@RJCcapital I'm just giving the facts.

If they get by regulatory issues they will easily be valued at hundreds of billions in 5 years because they are actually growing and their revenue & volume will also 10x.

[Max @__Max__S__]

@kiantrades How do institutional investors like her still get funding and attention?

[Max @__Max__S__]

How many more "official viewers" would there be if illegal streaming wasn't a thing.

Some of those high 90's viewership numbers are inflated by the fact there wasn't illegal streaming back then.

[NBA Communications @NBAPR]

The Western Conference Finals between the San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder finished as the most-watched Conference Finals in 24 years with an average of 10.8 million viewers per game on NBC/Peacock.

San Antonio’s victory over Oklahoma City in Game 7 averaged 15.9 million viewers, peaking with 17.7 million viewers.

[Max @__Max__S__]

And this works regardless of type of game(pre-season, NBA finals, AFC Championship) due to it just being price-discovery

It could range from Wemby returning in game 4 vs the Blazers to Nikola Vucevic being available for the Celtics after a trade versus the Miami Heat in February.

[Max @__Max__S__]

The market(even Pinnacle) overreacting to already "priced-in" injuries and then correcting back can yield repeatable CLV.

Mitchell Robinson was announced "IN" and most books moved the Knicks line significantly(e.g+158 to +150) before correcting back to what is was before. Him playing was "priced-in" days ago.

[Max @__Max__S__]

@PlusEVAnalytics I mean in general the use cases for hedging for sports specifically are pretty sparse.

[Max @__Max__S__]

@roiguy123 The biggest thing for prediction markets/exchange is getting by their legal issues(CFTC vs State), but they should and if they do they will become the primary model for every party. They just ultimately provide more optionality.

[Max @__Max__S__]

@EventWavesIO @bookdepth + To avoid slippage and get more liw down. They are given the opposite counterparty (buyer/seller) who provides them all the liquidity.

Same way as darkpools in stocks.

[Max @__Max__S__]

@GaetenD The thing with all insider trading, especially on prediction markets, is they make it way too obvious.

They buy massive size disproportionate to market volume, and to do that they use massive slippage/buy way beyond fair price.

[Max @__Max__S__]

@MathCodeCrypto @sprusfwitter @fairplaygov @dan_bernstein_ Any major league sides are liquid enough to not be manipulated.

Also external sportsbooks set odds, and prediction markets follow/track closely so any deviation that stays(true price didn't move) will instantly be arbed preventing manipulation.

[Max @__Max__S__]

@sprusfwitter @fairplaygov @dan_bernstein_ That's not a theoretical scenario and has never happened before.

The leagues have to report injuries themselves first and foremost, and if someone at ESPN put out a fake piece about a major injury it would be investigated.

[Max @__Max__S__]

@sprusfwitter @fairplaygov @dan_bernstein_ Not on an NBA finals game though, they should’ve asked about more niche markets on Kalshi